I hate to brag, but damn I’m good. After going 10-1 on my picks last week (only missing the main event correctly) and 17-4 over the past two UFC events, I’m feeling myself. I’m going to ignore the “pride comes before a fall” proverb, and am preparing to dominate this weekend once again.
This weekend is UFC 250 from UFC APEX gym in Las Vegas. Unfortunately, it’s a pretty weak card in terms of star power, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make some sweet, sweet cash money off of it.
All odds courtesy of MyBookie
Amanda Nunes (-600) vs Felicia Spencer
The greatest female fighter of all-time, Amanda Nunes, will be defending her featherweight title this Saturday against Felicia Spencer, the rare fighter who is an actual featherweight and not a bantamweight moving up a division for a title shot. That being said, she’s got a snowball’s chance in Vegas of winning this one – Nunes is just too good and too strong.
Raphael Assuncao (+125) vs Cody Garbrandt
Former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt seems to be getting respect in the betting line due to him being a former champ. However, he actually hasn’t won a fight since winning his title in December of 2016. In fact, he’s been (T)KO’d in all three of his fights since then. While Raphael Assuncao isn’t known as a KO artist (only four of his 27 wins are via that method), Garbrandt’s chin appears to be shot, and he has shown horrible fight IQ, fighting emotionally and, frankly, dumb, in all his recent fights.
Cory Sandhagen (-115) vs Aljamain Sterling
Another bantamweight tilt on the main card (three out of the five are 135 pound men’s fights), this one perhaps to determine the next title defender. And it’s a real, real tough one for me to pick, hence the -115 odds for both men. I’m leaning towards Cory Sandhagen, as he’s a more active striker, has more KO power, and is younger and bigger.
Neil Magny (-150) vs Anthony Rocco Martin
Anthony Rocco Martin is on a bit of a tear, winning five of his past six fights, but I’m betting on Neil Magny, who is coming off an impressive victory over Li Jingliang, beating him. He’ll have a seven inch reach advantage, and also has the striking and grappling advantage, at least on paper, over Martin.
Sean O’Malley (-500) vs Eddie Wineland
The undefeated Suga Sean is a massive favorite over grizzled veteran Eddie Wineland, but it’s probably valid. He’s undefeated for a reason, after all. He’ll have youth (10 years younger) and size (three inch reach) on his side, and I don’t see anywhere in the cage where Wineland will be his superior.
Chase Hooper (-195) vs Alex Caceres
Another undefeated young up-and-comer collides with a veteran in the prelim main event. Hooper looked real good in his UFC debut, and Caceres has been a middling fighter throughout his career (win one, lose one), so we’re going with youth once again.
Gerald Meerschaert (+100) vs Ian Heinisch
I’ll take the (slight) underdog Gerald Meerschaert in his matchup with Ian Heinisch. Heinisch is slumping, loser of his last two, while Meerschaert just tapped out Deron Winn in his last fight. In addition to GM3 having a five inch reach advantage, Heinisch also gets taken down a lot in fights, which plays into Meerschaert’s tricky submission game.
Cody Stamann (-285) vs Brian Kelleher
Brian Kelleher just fought a couple of weeks ago, KOing Hunter Azure, so this is a very quick turnaround. But, despite this impressive showing, I think Cody Stamann has too much for him. Stamann should be better on the feet as well as on the ground, if the fight goes there.
Charles Byrd (-190) vs Maki Pitolo
Look for ‘Kid Dynamite’ to snap his two-fight losing skid against ‘Coconut Bombz’. You can read more about Byrd here, but the gist of it is that in this matchup he’ll probably be too big and strong for Pitolo to handle.
Jussier Formiga (+105) vs Alex Perez
Where’s the love for Formiga? He’s already beaten the best flyweight currently in the UFC, Deiveson Figueiredo, and only loses to the elite of the elite of the division, which Perez hasn’t proven he’s a member of yet. While the stats lean in Perez’s favor, I’m thinking Formiga is a worthy live dog.
Alonzo Menifield (-225) vs Devin Clark
Alonzo Menifield is yet another undefeated fighter heading into Saturday, and I’m thinking he remains that way after clashing with Devin Clark. He’ll have the striking advantage, and has yet to be taken down in the UFC, which is a big plus considering Clark relies heavily on takedowns as part of his game.
Herbert Burns (-225) vs Evan Dunham
Evan Dunham is a grappler going up against a younger, bigger, superior grappler in Herbert Burns. Money goes on Burns.
Return on Investment: 4%