One of our dogs from yesterday won outright, the other one covered and had ourselves a net win day because of all the plus odds and our staking. The “Underdog Special” delivers!
Saturday’s Record: 3 – 3 (LPL)
Wednesday morning we get the return of LOL Champions Korea (LCK) which is, obviously, the Korean league. The league is ten teams, best-of-three, double round robin regular season with the top five making a gauntlet-style playoff bracket. Korea finished the first round robin entirely in front of an empty studio due to concerns over the COVID-19 virus. Much like the other leagues around the world they’ll be moving to a remote competition and broadcast for the remainder of the season.
There is a clear power structure in the LCK with three elite teams, Gen.G, T1, and DragonX, at the top of the standings. Afreeca is in their own tier in fourth, clearly better than the rest of the field but not quite as consistent as the top three. The bottom six has a ton of parity and any of these teams can beat each other. The schedule is three matches a day, five days a week.
Go here for more info on online betting.
DFS Thoughts
The LCK is a best-of-three region just like the LPL but they couldn’t be more opposite in their style and approach to the game. LPL teams tend to fight a lot more which introduces a lot of variance to the game while the LCK plays a more controlled, disciplined style. Heavy favorites tend to win 2 – 0 much more often in the LCK than they do in the LPL because of this. Another result is significantly fewer kills and therefore fewer fantasy points.
DraftKings is offering six match mixed slates with the LPL and LCK. On these slates you’ll want to avoid LCK players and teams that you aren’t confident will sweep their series 2 – 0 because the kills and assists won’t be as plentiful as they are in the LPL. However, heavy favorites in the team slot can be very beneficial because the LCK tends to have more “complete” victories with lots of objectives taken for more points. They’re also more reliable to 2 – 0 as previously mentioned.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the re-opening day slate.
** indicates a selection I like a lot
LOL Champions Korea (LCK)
Wednesday, March 25th
Griffin vs Gen.G (Start Time: 2am Eastern on Twitch)
Gen.G sit atop the league at 8 – 1 while Griffin are in a three way tie for last at 2 – 7. This is a tremendous mismatch and the odds show that. I normally like underdogs with extra time to prepare in League of Legends even with a coaching disadvantage because it’s much easier to prepare a strategy then to enact it and adapt to what your opponent throws at you. Griffin have the worst coach in the league but it’s pretty easy to drop a game coming off of extended time off and it’s tough to tell how certain players will respond to the remote gameplay.
If I had to take a side in this game it’d be Gen.G -1.5 but at -260 that’s pretty rich. If your book offers kill spreads look to target those in game two only. If Griffin win a game I think it will be in game one but you can get some juicy odds on big kill spreads and Gen.G have an average margin of victory of 11.66 kills.
Kill spreads typically scale kind of like alternate spreads in other sports. I like anything up to -10.5. I’m staying away from the spread even though Gen.G should win this 2 – 0.
Pick – Map 2 Gen.G -8.5 kills @ +104
KT Rolster vs DAMWON Gaming (Start Time: 5am Eastern on Twitch)
Rolster is literally a combination of roller and coaster into a shortened word. Gotta love it!
KT Rolster started their season 0 – 5 in match but also had to face the top three teams in their first three matches. After that start they went 4 – 0 to close out the first round robin. KT play an up-tempo style. They draft characters and team compositions that want to win early and close the game quickly. They have the shortest average game time in the league.
DAMWON represented Korea at the World Championships last year and made quarterfinals but the game was much different than it is now. DAMWON haven’t adapted to the times. They play a very risky style and in the current state of the game, one mistake is a much bigger deal than it was last year. Talent isn’t the problem it’s their game planning and style that are and they showed absolutely no adjustments in the first round robin. Unless they decide to change they’re in trouble.
I absolutely love the underdogs here. KT have been a scrappy underdog with a lot of veterans. They know who they are and what they want to do. KT have rarely lost to poor execution. Most of their losses are to their up-tempo style being stymied early to allow for other teams to scale. I also love underdogs coming off of extended time off as I mentioned earlier. Another “Underdog Special” coming right up!
**Pick – KT Rolster +1.5 maps @ -230 (to win 1u), KT Rolster ML @ +123 (0.5u)**
DragonX vs Hanwha Life eSports (Start Time: 7am Eastern on Twitch)
DragonX were my pre-season pick to win the split. They essentially acquired the best coach in the league as well as his quarterback. In this case it was coach cvMax and mid laner Chovy as well as top laner Doran. Chovy is one of the best players in the world at any position. The big question going in was how the two rookies would perform. On a stacked roster, the rookies have outshined everyone. Consider that question answered!
Hanwha Life had a hot start and have a decent roster but have come crashing down losing three out of four before the break against bottom half teams. They’re the cheesy team that has niche strategies to avoid playing straight up because they’re outclassed by most teams.
DragonX have shown the ability to adapt and should completely smash this series like they did the first time. It’s one of the few spots this week that I’ll be avoiding the underdogs coming off of the break.
**Pick – DragonX -1.5 maps @ -113**
