Further Explanation
I have been running a player rankings model this season and previously had been giving out a handful of recommendations each week for Cash/GPP/Value plays at each position. This list (along with many other lists/articles that I see in the DFS industry) still left me with some loose ends and gaps to fill in order to actually get to a lineup worth entering in contests.
This flowchart format allows me to get anywhere between 5-20 correlated lineups every week that should have a shot at being pretty successful in the larger tournaments. I implemented the different categories or “steps” of the flowchart as a way to make sure the process was consistent each week as I’m a big proponent of developing a process and sticking to that process every week.
The “Game Stack” is obviously the most important part of the flowchart, and the easiest criteria to understand, as it has the chance to make or break the week. Example: Week 11, I gave out a Dak/Amari stack which did average but a Dak/Cobb stack would have absolutely broken open the slate.
Next step is the RB/DEF stack, which is a pretty common one as well, but I like to start by picking DEF which have good matchups and then picking that teams running back rather than vice versa.
The “<5% ownership” tier is the most important one when it comes to being successful in GPPs as these are the types of players that you need to have in your lineup, but also the ones that provide the most volatility. There are usually plenty of options here, so people can pick and choose who they like best.
The last step is mostly to help fill in the gaps. Ideally, there is some money left to load in a couple consistent studs and get some of the chalky plays that are great values for that week.
As far as putting this thing in motion, the first two steps are pretty easy and gets you to a 5 player core, after that it isn’t going to perfectly follow all the designated arrows but the intent is to give different options at the price range where your lineups should be. At the end of the flowchart, you want to target <$400 remaining as I think this is a pretty good threshold for GPPs. Also, it can differentiate your lineups from people who are trying to max out the $$ perfectly every week.
Results
The optimal lineup in Week 11 landed in the top 8% for some of the larger $1 & $3 GPPs and Week 14 was in the top 2% and should have hit the 5x Cash threshold, which is sweet. I’ll try to come up with a way to show results for optimal lineup and avg lineup etc moving forward. I was out of country in Week 12 & 13 so didn’t run it then.
