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Daily Fantasy Picks For DraftKings/FanDuel – NFL Football Week 7 [UPDATED SAT 10/19] (Sunday, October 20)

NFL Football Week 7 Daily Fantasy Picks For DraftKings, FanDuel (Sun, October 20)

I’ll be the first to admit that I can get ahead of myself at times when I get over-excited for matchups that look like they could go wild on the surface (and inevitably go to garbage). Enter: ‘Skins/Dolphins, Week 6. While I did strongly advise the high risk this game’s pieces were, at the same time, I would likely do it all over again…had Fitzpatrick started the game, in hindsight.

Because sometimes remembering the spots we tried to get too cute is much easier forgotten than the times it may have worked out for us. Own it, learn from the previous pitfall, and progress your process. It’s when we happen to move forward in ignorance of what can be corrected that we truly have lost our invested wages.

I promise to keep it clean with the contrarianism this time, as it’s not going to call for [as] much of it this week. Because my prime candidates for game-stacking (Cardinals/Giants) aren’t priced through the roof at any position outside of Saquon, and neither team appears that they’ll be dragging a slew of the field ownership with them.

It’s getting toward the mid-point of the regular season, and crunch time is now, especially for those still waiting to bink big on NFL in 2019. Middling lineups may seem discouraging, but things can be much worse, and the flip-side of the coin to this criticism-of-process is recognizing the consistencies that manage to keep us in the min cash, at the very least. Whether you are cut strictly from the cloth of hand-building lineups, or have taken preference in a specific optimizer program: each week we’re trying to perfect a method to our madness.

So, let’s not lose sight of the silver linings amidst pulling no punches on the perils to our process and start off where we always do…

The Gameplan

Sure, the suggested Redskins/Dolphins albatross didn’t pan out with the exception to those who played Terry McLaurin. But the ultimate idea to spare yourself the salary relief by gunning for these cheap one-off and two-man stacks in fact did its job, had you spent up in the right places (Carson, Chubb). I even achieved min cash in a large-field GPP with a stack that included Josh Rosen and Preston Williams. This was to inevitably wind up stacking KC/HOU and ATL/ARI, which was mostly priced up considerably, namely the first of those two games.

The point being, this time the stacks I’m eyeing most aren’t quite as expensive, and those are indeed a full game stack between the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants. Saquon Barkley may be returning, which is huge for the Giants team total as a whole considering how many doors he unlocks for the offense by being on the field for as many snaps as possible. The offenses can score fantasy points when given the right matchup, which both teams appear to be optimal targets for one another.

The Arizona Cardinals come into Week 7 ranked 30th in passing yards allowed with 1,687 on the season along with 15 touchdowns through the air, which is the league’s worst. Based on their previous quality of opponents (and other factors), the Cardinals rank 28th overall against the pass per Football Outsiders DVOA weighted metric.

On the other side of the field, we’ve got the New York Giants sitting 31st in passing yards allowed (1,710) and tied for 23rd in the league in passing touchdowns allowed with ten. This equivalates to 29th overall in DVOA against the pass for the Giants, which should mean a substantial amount of Kyler Murray.

You could run a “naked” (a quarterback without a stack on your roster) Kyler Murray in your lineups if you happen to lack confidence in any of the Arizona receivers, but I personally will be aiming to get Murray paired with Larry Fitzgerald alongside either of David Johnson or Chase Edmonds (who is strictly a GPP play). Speaking of GPP plays, Maxx Williams is an extremely intriguing value punt.

And in nearly every ounce of as much foreseeable interest, I love Daniel Jones, Evan Engram, Golden Tate, and of course Saquon should he suit up for this matchup that’s got a fantasy value in all price tiers. This game should be loaded with offense, and I suspect both quarterbacks have a game worthy of solid point totals. Naturally, there are other games I value with just about as much DFS upside in terms of raw productivity, but I feel like lower aggregate ownership will be the kicker in order to make these two teams my highest owned stacks come Sunday.

UPDATE (SAT, 10/19):

With Leonard Fournette forecasting to be at astronomical ownership close to 40%, the contrarian in me is rearing its ugly head and urging me to roster Ryquell Armstead as a vulturous pivot play that very well may bust, and hinges on a lot of outlier situations to bode in your favor should you choose to include him in your roster(s) as well. But if Fournette goes down, you’re sitting among a very small percentage of people who happen to be thinking the same way. Food for thought.

Geronimo Allison was just upgraded today from ‘Doubtful’ to ‘Questionable’, making him an extremely interesting GPP play should he suit up, in an oddball avenue of contrarianism considering it would be a pivot off of recent public popularity paid to Allen Lazard. Any other year the popular play would have been Allison, but the field seems to be lingering on the new-spoken praise by Aaron Rodgers (which, evidently is the gospel if you ask fantasy bettors). I don’t know about you, but I will be keeping an eye on Geronimo Allison’s status leading up to kickoff as a strong pivot off of Lazard.

Saquon Barkley‘s active status at practice this week has skyrocketed him in ownership, hovering around the 20% mark. I will be trying to best the field here, and somehow find it much easier with Alvin Kamara now officially ruled out. And speaking of Kamara, Latavius Murray will be the lead ball carrier in the Saints matchup with the Bears in Chicago. While this matchup may be deemed terrifying on the surface, you have to figure any goal line carries will go his way should they get to the end zone, and Michael Thomas is still a GPP standout worth rostering at ridiculously low projected ownership on all outlets. I will definitely be getting more than my share of Thomas, as well as Murray, in a public fade scenario that could work well in your favor if the outlier performance is there.

David Johnson is a game-time decision according to Coach Kingsbury, and stated that if the game were played today that he would not be active. I’m interested in Chase Edmonds regardless, especially on DraftKings where there’s a full-point per reception and coming in dirt cheap at $4,700. And should Johnson not suit up this Sunday, Edmonds is a near-lock play on all sites.

And finally, Todd Gurley suddenly shed his injury tag on Friday like a bad suit, and Malcolm Brown is considered ‘Doubtful’. While I find Gurley to be a very viable GPP play, I think Darrell Henderson is an even sneakier one, proving his worth on third-downs and if Gurley gets hobbled, he’ll be positioned to inherit all of the ground work.

Best of luck this week fellow Degens. Get at me on Twitter (@TopherSquints) or our Slack Channel with any questions or comments.

Quarterback

Kyler Murray, ARI ($6,700 DK/$7,700 FD)

Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

While he happens to be quite the asset in daily fantasy simply running him solo on a weekly basis, I’ll go ahead and pick up where I left off a moment ago in stressing the idea of running Kyler Murray in a stack of some sorts. While he’s the third highest rushing quarterback in the league per number of attempts, he’s also the fourth highest in passing attempts as well.

Averaging 23.2 DraftKings Fantasy Points per game, Murray is in a prime spot to shine against a Giants defense who gives up nearly the most yards per game through the air, and the second-most rushing touchdowns by quarterbacks with three in 2019. At the same time, Murray has plenty of room for fantasy growth considering he’s only thrown for eight touchdowns and rushed for two. If the scores pick up for him, he’s going to be right up there with Russell Wilson soon enough (regarding DFS value).

In all likelihood, I see myself getting to more Murray in 3-man team stacks than anything else (running “naked” or in 2-man stacks), for a number of reasons that start with lineup differentiation. Also, the Cards are rather cheap in general and make for an easy and affordable stack that runs a promising ceiling. But Kyler Murray is the only Cardinal with a solid enough floor to be considered for Cash Games as well.

Aaron Rodgers, GB ($6,400 DK/$7,600 FD)

Considerations: GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

Although they have managed to seat themselves just above the middle of the pack in passing yards allowed, the Oakland Raiders rank 26th overall DVOA against the pass (per Football Outsiders) and happen to have a date with Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field. And considering the 6th ranked rush defense ala DVOA, I anticipate a huge game for A-Rod at home in front of the raucous cheesehead faithful.

Despite the public perception that this Packers passing game isn’t the same, they’re actually ranked 10th overall in offensive efficiency via the passing game and has seen a new sign of life emerge in Allen Lazard amidst the absence of his star wideout Davante Adams. And while the Raiders stout rush defense does not bode well for Aaron Jones on paper, Oakland sits middle of the pack against running backs via the passing game (14th in DVOA) which makes Jamaal Williams a rather frugal investment at the position, and most effective in stacks with Rodgers.

Stacking up Rodgers with most any of his companions in Green Bay is advised if you’re going the route of rostering him, as most everyone outside of Adams and Jones being more than achievable if salary is the concern. For what it’s worth, the Raiders are also 22nd against tight ends to boot, making both Jimmy Graham and Marcedes Lewis viable stack plays as well (Lewis being strictly large-field GPP).

Other Cash QB Considerations:
Jared Goff, LAR ($6,200 DK/$7,800 FD)
Daniel Jones, NYG ($6,100 DK/$7,200 FD)
Russell Wilson, SEA ($6,600 DK/$8,500 FD)
Matt Ryan, ATL ($6,300 DK/$7,900 FD)

Other GPP QB Considerations:
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF ($6,000 DK/$7,500 FD)
Josh Allen, BUF ($6,500 DK/$7,700 FD)
Lamar Jackson, BAL ($6,800 DK/$8,400 FD)
Gardner Minshew, JAC ($5,400 DK/$6,900 FD)

LONGSHOT GPP QB:
Derek Carr, OAK ($5,000 DK/$6,500 FD)

Running Back

Leonard Fournette, JAC ($7,000 DK/$7,900 FD)

Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

Projecting to be the highest owned DraftKings player across a number of outlets, Leonard Fournette is looking to be the textbook definition of “good chalk” in Week 7 (yeah, I say that now). And against the only defense to allow more than 1,000 total yards on the ground so far this season (1,107), how could one argue against it?

Fournette is included in more snaps than any other member of the offense besides Gardner Minshew and three offensive linemen (Lindor, Taylor, Norwell) at 91.4% offensive snap percentage. Averaging 19 DraftKings fantasy points per game certainly adds to his appeal, and I fail to see many feasible scenarios where the Jags would be inclined to get away from pounding the ball with Fournette.

The only thing that strikes me with the slightest hesitation is the staggering ownership that is suggested skyward of 30% everywhere I’ve looked, and this case makes besting the field’s ownership somewhat risky considering how many times we’ve seen heavy chalk backfire due to one thing or another that’s totally unforeseeable prior to kickoff. But Leonard Fournette is such a great play in this spot, it’s a challenge by itself to actually stay away from him at all.

Derrick Henry, TEN ($5,800 DK/$6,500 FD)

Consideration: GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice…Derrick Henry. Following an extremely disappointing outing in Denver, I find myself going back to the well with Henry, who makes a rather challenging case to turn down given his price tag and friendly matchup on the ground. And with Ryan Tannehill now defyingly claiming the starting quarterback position (did Mariota give Mike Vrabel a bad stock tip or something?!), I have a good feeling about Henry’s share of carries come Sunday against the Chargers.

This Los Angeles defense was just thrashed by James Conner and Benny Snell for 208 all-purpose yards, with the Steelers grinding out a convincing win behind their backfield blitzkrieg, and all while with a third-string starting QB in Devlin Hodges. Given the years worth of subpar performances as the sample size for Tannehill, I anticipate the Titans leaning heavily on Henry, against a Chargers rush defense that ranks 22nd overall DVOA and 23rd overall in rushing yards allowed (723).

At the same time as I understand the hesitations brewed up from last Sunday’s lousy performance, Derrick Henry proves to be worthy of another shot at making right for his fantasy investors.

Other Cash Game RB Considerations:
Chris Carson, SEA ($6,500 DK/$7,600 FD)
Devonta Freeman, ATL ($5,400 DK/$6,400 FD)
Mark Ingram III, BAL ($6,600 DK/$7,500 FD)
Frank Gore, BUF ($5,200 DK/$6,000 FD)
David Johnson, ARI ($7,800 DK/$7,400 FD)
Dalvin Cook, MIN ($8,000 DK/$8,300 FD)

Other GPP RB Considerations:
Saquon Barkley, NYG ($8,900 DK/$8,600 FD)
Chase Edmonds, ARI ($4,700 DK/$5,500 FD)
Joe Mixon, CIN ($5,000 DK/$6,100 FD)
Tevin Coleman, SF ($5,600 DK/$6,200 FD)
Josh Jacobs, OAK ($5,000 DK/$6,700 FD)
Marlon Mack, IND ($6,000 DK/$7,100 FD)

LONGSHOT GPP RB:
Jamaal Williams, GB ($4,900 DK/$5,400 FD)

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp, LAR ($7,400 DK/$7,800 FD)

Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

Unlike the Atlanta Falcons secondary, Cooper Kupp is an outright beast and is another “no brainer” play in Week 7. Much like that of Fournette’s scenario for the weekend, Kupp stands in a situation that’s too good to be true heading into Atlanta on Sunday and looks to pile on the fantasy points in typical Cooper Kupp fashion.

Against the second-worst pass defense according to Football Outsiders DVOA, Kupp’s league-leading 69 targets (nice) on the season couldn’t be more promising of a threat to roster. Facing off in dome territory to add further incentive to roster, he also brings 22.3 DKFP per game to the table against a secondary who’s forking over 271.2 passing yards per game to opponents, which is 28th overall in the league.

I find every Rams receiving threat to be of high interest in Week 7 against Atlanta, but given the sketchy running back situation in the Rams backfield, I would imagine Kupp to be the lead ball handler once again, followed by the rest of the Rams receiving bunch.

Golden Tate, NYG ($5,800 DK/$6,100 FD)

Consideration: GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

Possibly one of the greatest values in this matchup outside of the quarterbacks, Golden Tate has stamped a comeback since suspension and landing with the Giants, posting a rare 100+ yard performance against the Patriots in New England. Hauling in six of nine targets for 102 yards and a touchdown against the league’s #2 pass defense (and #1 overall), Tate looks like he’s going to be the slot receiver threat that they have been looking for in New York.

This secondary for the Cardinals is an abysmal one, having given up the most touchdowns in the league through the air thus far with 15, and the 30th ranked in passing yards allowed. Daniel Jones targeted him the most against New England and I believe that’s rather indicative considering it was his second game back from suspention.

Golden Tate is priced just right, and actually possibly slightly too cheap, but somehow doesn’t appear to be on many radars [yet]. I will be stocking up on Tate far greater than the public’s ownership (everywhere I’ve seen under 10%) and it won’t take too much to do so.

Other Cash Game Considerations:
Adam Thielen, MIN ($6,900 DK/$7,100 FD)
T.Y. Hilton, IND ($5,900 DK/$7,600 FD)
Robert Woods, LAR ($5,900 DK/$7,300 FD)
Tyler Lockett, SEA ($6,600 DK/$6,500 FD)
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI ($6,100 DK/$5,600 FD)

Other GPP Considerations:
D.J. Chark, JAC ($6,000 DK/$6,600 FD)
Brandin Cooks, LAR ($5,400 DK/$6,700 FD)
Stefon Diggs, MIN ($6,300 DK/$6,800 FD)
John Brown, BUF ($5,500 DK/$5,900 FD)
Calvin Ridley, ATL ($5,300 DK/$5,500 FD)
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU ($7,800 DK/$8,000 FD)

LONGSHOT GPP WR:
Allen Lazard, GB ($3,000 DK/$4,500 FD)

Tight End

George Kittle, SF ($6,700 DK/$7,100 FD)

Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

He’s finally come into full-swing as everyone had hoped, and this week Kittle’s got the Washington Redskins including their 26th-ranked defense against tight ends (DVOA), making for a pricier Cash Game tight end yet providing an excellent floor considering the matchup (watch that statement backfire).

Following a bumpy start to the season (namely Weeks 2 & 3), Kittle has now registered back-to-back 20+ DraftKings fantasy point performances. Outside of Week 2, he’s been the most targeted 49er each week and averaging 7.4 targets per game.

The Redskins are the 24th ranked defense against the Pass per DVOA, and think Kittle is in an absolute smash spot. I wouldn’t doubt Kittle comes through as some of the top chalk, especially at his position, but just ask Austin Hooper how being the chalkiest tight end worked out for him last week and get back to me.

Hunter Henry, LAC ($4,000 DK/$5,700 FD)

Consideration: Cash Games

If the second half of the matchup with the Steelers this past Sunday night wasn’t evident enough, Hunter Henry has stormed back into Philip Rivers’ good graces and looks to keep the train rolling through Tennessee.

Trailing only Mike Williams by one target in Week 6 (with nine), Henry ignited for eight receptions for 100 receiving yards and two touchdowns, racking in 33 DraftKings points to be the top scoring fantasy tight end on the week. Philip Rivers is notorious for favoring his tight end (see: Antonio Gates), especially in the red zone as furthermore convincing by exhibit Henry.

Against a Titans defense ranking 24th against the tight end position per DVOA rankings on Football Outsiders, Henry shows no signal of slowing considering this Chargers offense has been sputtering besides him in the passing game. Hunter Henry is the best play on this side of the field, by far.

Other Cash Game TE Considerations:
Mark Andrews, BAL ($4,900 DK/$6,700 FD)
Austin Hooper, ATL ($5,300 DK/$6,600 FD)
Darren Waller, OAK ($4,700 DK/$6,200 FD)
Evan Engram, NYG ($6,500 DK/$6,800 FD)

Other GPP TE Considerations:
Jimmy Graham, GB ($4,200 DK/$5,800 FD)
Delanie Walker, TEN ($3,800 DK/$5,200 FD)
Dawson Knox, BUF ($3,300 DK/$4,800 FD)
Gerald Everett, LAR ($3,700 DK/$5,900 FD)

LONGSHOT GPP TE:
Josh Oliver, JAC ($2,000 DK/$3,600 FD)

Defense/Special Teams

Cash Game D/ST:

Bears ($3,000 DK/$4,500 FD)
Jaguars ($3,500 DK/$4,900 FD)
Niners ($4,100 DK/$5,000 FD)

GPP D/ST:
Bills ($4,300 DK/$5,500 FD)
Saints ($2,900 DK/$4,400 FD)
Texans ($3,000 DK/$3,900 FD)
Giants ($2,500 DK/$3,700 FD)

LONGSHOT GPP D/ST:
Colts ($2,000 DK/$3,600 FD)

Chris "Topher" Giordani is a sports gambling nerd who derives his passion for such from a number of avenues, particularly the ilk of fantasy sports. Currently working and residing in Orange County, California, daily fantasy sports consume a vast majority of his attention span on any given day. Reviving his sports rant podcast in 2019. #FadeTheChalk

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