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NFL Divisional Round: Saturday Betting Preview And Trends

NFL Divisional Round: Saturday Betting Preview And Trends

Although the year is coming to an end, Divisional Weekend always brings us some good football. By now we know who the teams are and we look into numbers and what teams have done historically in this spot. Let’s dive into a few numbers from the matchups this weekend that could help you in your handicapping.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) Sat. 1/12, 4:35 p.m. ET
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Temp Expected 2°C/35°F Snow Showers

The Indianapolis Colts (10-6, 4-4 Away) travel to a frigid Arrowhead Stadium in a juicy matchup that promises to see points. The Chiefs ended the season 9-6-1 ATS giving backers winning tickets 60.0% of the time. While Playing at home, Kansas City went 7-1 SU while splitting 4-4 ATS in the regular season. The Colts are 9-7-1 ATS this season and own a 6-3 ATS road record, rewarding backers 66.7% of the time.

The Game holds the weekends highest total of 57.5 over at our friends at Mybookie.ag, and deservedly so as games involving the Chiefs saw the over go 10-5-1 (66.7%) while seeing the sum go over by an average of +8.5 points. Now one thing to keep in mind is the Over record was boosted by away games where Kansas City overs went 7-1, in Arrowhead the O/U results were 3-4-1. The Colts as visitors have an O/U record of 4-5  with last weeks performance vs. the Texans as an outlier as they were able to score early and put the game away.

How has Kansas City Performed in this spot in the postseason?

Using the Oddsshark’s NFL Database

Chiefs are 1-6 Overall, 0-7 ATS, and 2-5 Over/Under in January games at home over the last 7. The last home playoff win, Jan 8, 1994, a 27-24 win as 8 point favorites failing to cover the number vs. the Steelers.

By Now everyone has caught wind of Andy Reid off a Bye week trends, but since taking command of the Chiefs, Reid is 3-3 ATS after a Bye and is on the heels of back to back losses ATS, most recently vs. the Raiders where they were listed as 14 point road favorites.

Battle of top offenses
Scoring
Chiefs 1st 35.3
Colts 7th 26.7

Pass Yards
Chiefs 3rd
Colts 6th

Rush Yards
Chiefs 16th
Colts 17th

Where you can find some differences
Yards per Play
Chiefs 1st
Colts 10th

Plays Per Game
Chiefs 23rd
Colts 3rd

Chiefs vs. the AFC (L20)
15-5 Overall, 13-7 ATS, and 10-10 Over/Under in these games
Last 20 at Home vs. AFC
14-6 Overall, 10-10 ATS, and 5-15 Over/Under in these games
Chiefs vs. AFC South (since 2002)
12-8 Overall, 11-9 ATS, and 8-12 Over/Under in these games.
Chiefs vs. AFC South at Home
7-11 Overall, 5-13 ATS, and 7-11 Over/Under in these games.

Colts Last 10 Road Games in January
6-4 Overall, 6-4 ATS, and 3-7 Over/Under in these games.
On the Road
4-6 Overall, 4-6 ATS, and 2-8 Over/Under in these games.
Colts last 20 vs. AFC
9-11 Overall, 9-10-1 ATS, and 7-13 Over/Under in these games
Colts on Road vs. AFC
8-12 Overall, 10-9-1 ATS, and 12-8 Over/Under in these games.

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-7) Sat.1/12, 8:15 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Temp expected 13°C/55°F 1MPH Wind

The Saturday night entertainment presents an exciting matchup between 2 franchises that have seen each other nine times in postseason history, the most of any head to head matchup. Although it’s been over three decades since their last playoff encounter, Saturday night will prize either team a 5-4 all-time lead, but more importantly a ticket to the NFC Championship game. The Cowboys last NFC title berth was in 1995, they have since gone 0-5 when reaching the Divisional round of the playoffs.

The Rams season was tricky from a betting perspective where we saw them start 3-0 ATS smashing the lines to open the year. Then we saw the number start catching up to them as the went 5-1 SU but struggled to cover the spread ending 1-5 ATS during that time frame. When teams come into a season as a public favorite, as were the Rams with all the hype around the additions to the team, and they perform well out of the gates, you can expect a premium to be built into their numbers, and that’s what we saw when they were winning but not covering.

Dallas comes into this matchup with the team morale as high as can be. Not only did the excel this year surpassing expectations after starting the season 3-5, but the Cowboys were able to turn the season around thanks to a five-game win streak dominated by their punishing defense ending the year on a 7-1 SU streak pushing them to 10-6 (11-6 now) for the season and rewarding bettors 56.2% of the time (9-7-1 ATS after last week).

Totals on both of these teams have been pretty sharp this year with the Rams O/U 8-8 and the Cowboys now 8-9 after last week.

Now while we said the number caught up to the Rams throughout the year, in the Coliseum, they were extremely reliable for bettors ending 6-2 ATS smashing the line by +13.4 in these games.

The success at home can be attributed to Jared Goff’s positive splits at home.

The total opened at 49.5 and is moving towards 50 so expect it to move by kickoff Saturday night. The move credited to over 90% of tickets and 66% of the money all backing points in this matchup.

At home, The Rams averaged 37.12 points per game, over four more than the 32.94 PPG on the road. The reason for the boost is the increase in passing yards of over 51 per game helping them with more plays and more time of possession in home games.

On the other side, you get a Cowboys teams that saw road games tally a 2-6 O/U record. The Dallas offense only averaged 17.3 points per game on the road, almost four less than their 21.3 overall this season. The defense allowed two more points as visitors as to when not playing in Jerry world.

At the Memorial Coliseum, the Rams were the highest scoring home team and also led the way in pass yards. This might be somewhere to find an angle as the Dallas defense ranked 21st vs. the pass on the road. In LA, the Rams are the top team in yards per play, the Dallas D as visitors are below average at 19th.

Rams at Home this season
7-1 SU 3-3-2 ATS

Rams last 20 vs. NFC
13-7 Overall, 9-10-1 ATS, and 10-9-1 Over/Under in these games

Rams last 20 at Home vs. NFC
Rams are 9-11 Overall, 6-12-2 ATS, and 9-9-2 Over/Under in these games

Cowboys Away this season
3-5 SU 4-4 ATS

Cowboys Last 20 in January playoff games
10-10 Overall, 8-12 ATS, and 10-10 Over/Under in these games.
On the road the drop off is drastic
Cowboys is 2-12 Overall, 3-7 ATS, and 5-5 Over/Under in these games.

Cowboys last 20 vs. NFC
Dallas is 14-6 Overall, 11-8-1 ATS, and 8-12 Over/Under in these games

Last 20 on road vs. NFC
Dallas is 13-7 Overall, 12-8 ATS, and 5-15 Over/Under in these games

Not all sample sizes are created equal and the Rams playoff loss to the Falcons last season was their first postseason appearance since 2005.

 

 

UPDATED 947 CST

Total Points O/U – San Antonio Spurs Over 123.5 5U MAX

 

UPDATED  242 CST 1/11

England

Leeds halftime PK/ -.5   3U MAX

 

UPDATE  1/12   850 CST

Brighton/ Liverpool

Over 2.5 5U MAX

Pool TT Over 2 5U MAX

UPDATE 239 CST

Kidney Play 8U 7 Point Teaser
Colts +11.5
Saints -1

UPDATE

Chiefs/Colts Halftime Bets

Over 57.5 Game 5U
3rd Q over 10.5 8U

Sports Writer for The Sports Gambling podcast| Host of Moneyline on ESPN 97.5 Houston/Houston SportsMap. An enthusiast of all things gambling. A sports degenerate: Man of the people: a DREAMER... "Follow me, I'll show you the way."

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