1. Updating The Dying NFL Spread
Again, over the last four years, the NFL spread has mattered two to three times a week within the NFL
Arizona covered +17 and Seattle covered +9.5. Jacksonville and Indianapolis pushed on +3.
YTD: 23 times out of 149 games (15%)
Moneyline it. Don’t take the points and reduce your break-even point. Conversely, parlays-not teasers are more profitable, despite the stigma.
Remember-When a favorite wins the game straight up, they cover the spread 85.1% of the time over the last three-plus years and when an underdog covers, they win the game 82% of the time.
2. Home Pittsburgh Is Really Good
In the Thursday Night Football matchup, a really obvious spot presented itself. Carolina actually reminds me a lot of Pittsburgh in that they are a completely different team at home than on the road. Cam Newton, much like Ben Roethlisberger, is the definition of a front runner. Well, 1+1 =2 and truth be told I’m somewhat upset at myself for not identifying this situational spot.
It was the best version of Pittsburgh (home Pit / home Ben) Vs. the worst version of Carolina (road CAR / road Cam) and the score came out exactly how you one would have thought it would, as Pittsburgh ra through Carolina to the tune of 52-21. The home team has now only lost twice this season on TNF. Carolina heads to the road again although against Matt Stafford and his pitiful record against teams that finish the year over .500, and Pittsburgh does the same heading to Jacksonville as six point road favorites.
3. Vegas Took Revenge
After three straight losing weeks for Las Vegas and the offshore community, books struck back with a vengeance. Underdogs ran wild and just about every teaser and money line parlay piece was dismantled with wins by The Titans (Vs. New England), The Browns (Vs. Atlanta), Kansas City (-17) failed to cover against Arizona, The Jets lost to the lowly Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia lost outright to The Cowboys, and even noted public underdog Jacksonville couldn’t come through for players.
Even while the Super Contest consensus was in the midst of a 9-1 run, it fell to 1-4 this week. Everything tends to even out in this world, and just because a few wong teasers and ugly underdogs came through this week, stick with what’s worked for you.
4. When You Dig Deeper Into The Chargers You Find Good Things
The LA Chargers have much been one of the most frustrating teams to bet on in recent years because frankly, they have zero idea on how to close out games. After coming out the other side of being everyone’s public darlings to win the AFC West, they’ve vaulted themselves to a 7-2 record while having Philip Rivers put up MVP numbers, Melvin Gordon contend for a touchdown crown, and Keenan Allen look like the most underrated receiver in the NFL.
If it wasn’t for Kansas City doing what they’ve done this year I’d venture to say everyone would be talking about The Chargers. When you dig deeper into their very impressive record, you’ll find they’ve only lost to arguably the two best teams in the NFL in The Rams and The Chiefs. Those teams have combined for an amazing 18-2 record. The Chargers are still very live to win the division and at worst will be the #1 wildcard seed. They have zero home field advantage, so taking to the road won’t be much of a problem at all.
5. Some Teams Should Only Be Live Bet…Introducing The Washington Redskins
The “live bet only” title used to be reserved for The Jacksonville Jaguars, as their game plan was quite obvious, run the ball, get a lead, play all world defense, and run the ball some more. This season Jacksonville has the makings of being in the midst of a lost season as Blake Bortles has regressed even further, and the defense has looked like a shell of itself.
Enter The Washington Redskins:
The @Redskins have now played 9 games without a single lead change.
They are the first team with no lead changes through 9 games since the 1954 … Redskins! #WASvsTB
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 11, 2018
It does feel like the whole world is on this trend at the moment, but until something stops being profitable, you owe it to yourself to bet on it. If Washington gets up, live bet on them. If they fall behind early, fade away.