1. The Red Sox Ran Away And No One Can Find Them
What a difference a month makes in Major League Baseball as at the beginning of July, Boston was a +140 underdog to win The AL East- let alone the American League. Fast forward to the time of writing today, and Boston has an 8.5 game lead in the AL East and are the favorites to win the American League at +200.
I wrote that the way to play the AL East was to do a bit of day trading as each team was going back and forth as a favorite in the range of +130 to -110 between New York and Boston, but with a little over a month left in the season, I’m declaring the race over, and Boston won by a landslide. Boston is on pace for its best season in the history of the team, and a 100-win team in the AL wild-card game seems like a far cry memory, but at one point it seemed to be the reality. With Houston’s injury troubles (I will get to that in a moment), Boston is the class of the American League.
2. Houston, We Have Injuries
Houston is currently fielding an all-star team on the disabled list-seriously-see below:
The good news, if you know how to play the market, is this may be the opportunity you’ve been waiting for all season if you missed the boat on preseason futures. Look, Houston is going to be bad for a little bit, they may even play .500 baseball or below in August, but that’s what we in the business like to call, buying low.
Houston currently has a four-game lead in their division, and even if their injuries dismount them from the top of the AL-West (I don’t think it will) Houston still has Justin Verlander-followed by Gerrit Cole to send out in any elimination wild card game. If you can find a price north of +400 for the American League by the end of the season, jump all over it.
3. The National League Divison Race(s) Are Up For Grabs
A team that won’t die, Arizona has risen from the dead for the tie in the NL West (actually percentage points above The Dodgers at the moment) and are making this race come down to the wire. I firmly believe this will be The Dodgers division to win, and I think if the price has come back down in the range of -130 or below, it’s time to load up, remember, Julio Urias is on the horizon for them.
The Dodgers have gone from +400, to -180, to -250, to now -140. Similar to how I played Boston and The Yankees, do some day trading and grab a piece of the underdog each time. Milwaukee will not go away either, as they had a stranglehold on the division for the whole first half of the season until three days until the break, and are still getting no respect. They made all the right deals at the deadline, but are probably one starting pitcher away from making a run, but their value is much too good to pass up even with Chicago getting Cole Hamels. Take the shot on Milwaukee.