Only one non-quarterback over the past 11 years has won the NFL MVP award, former Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson in 2012. So it is certainly understandable then why the top 17 choices on the 2018 NFL MVP odds at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com will all line up under center this season.
And leading the way among the quarterbacks is Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers as the +550 favorite (wager $100 to win $550) to tie Tom Brady of the New England Patriots with his third league MVP award.
Of course Brady won his third a year ago by throwing for an NFL-best 4,577 yards at the age of 40, ultimately leading New England to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances. The irony is that an NFL MVP has not won the Super Bowl in the same season since Kurt Warner accomplished the feat back in 1999, making the award somewhat of a bad omen for those hoping to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy too.
Brady’s Patriots lost to Carson Wentz’s Philadelphia Eagles 41-33 in Super Bowl LII, and they are the next two choices on the board at +800 and +850, respectively. Wentz obviously missed his chance to match up opposite Brady in the big game due to a torn ACL, with his replacement Nick Foles going on to win Super Bowl MVP honors.
Foles is a +12500 long shot to win regular-season MVP this year and would need Wentz to go down again, something the Eagles simply cannot afford to happen in their quest for a repeat.
The next two players in the discussion could not be more different in terms of experience, as 26-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo begins his first full season as a starter for the San Francisco 49ers while 39-year-old Drew Brees starts his 18th overall and 13th with the New Orleans Saints.
Both are listed at +1500 to win NFL MVP, and Brees would seem to be the sentimental favorite since he figures to break Peyton Manning’s NFL career passing yardage record by midseason. Brees is also the +400 co-favorite on the odds to lead the league in passing yards this season along with Brady.
Garoppolo is the most curious case though because he has never lost a game as a starter, earning a perfect 7-0 record between New England (2-0) and San Francisco (5-0). If he can keep that up for a full 16-game season, the odds of winning are in his favor.