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First To Third: A Budding Super Star & Weekend Wrap Up

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1.New York’s Nine Lives

After a thrilling win on Sunday Night Baseball for The Yankees, they have now won nine straight games and the “rebuild” appears to be in the rearview mirror now. The scary thing about this for the rest of the league is that it’s not even the usual suspects that have been carrying New York. 2018’s number 5 prospect Gleybar Torres has been as advertised and appears to be entrenched as the everyday second baseman already. Torres is hitting .355 currently while playing his brand of highly touted defense. New York’s bullpen is of course easily the best in baseball which shortens games to the point that their starters don’t have the weight of the world on top of them.

The point that I want to make from a betting angle here is that while I like to eliminate variance by using the first 5 innings market a bit more when betting on New York, the full game line allows you some more breathing room if one of their starters struggle early. Giancarlo Stanton’s early season struggles are well known, Aaron Judge was clearly going to regress, but with Gary Sanchez looking like he may be the best of the group, their offense is just fine. The pitching, however, is what I would like to highlight, specifically the starting pitching.

Luis Severino is a certified ace, but past that is what could pose problems. Tanaka, Sabathia, Montgomery, and Gray are formidable, but in a playoff series, they will be at a disadvantage specifically to a team like Boston who can throw out Sale, Porcello, and Price. Even while winning nine straight New York isn’t in first place and anything can happen in a one-game wild-card scenario. They need to add a starter at the deadline but ride them until it’s not profitable in the short term. Severino is also worthy of an AL Cy-Young ticket.

2. Cleveland By Default Is Flashing BUY.

After Cleveland just lost their weekend series with Seattle (who are MUCH better this year) by a combined 14 runs in the last two days, you may be asking why you should buy Cleveland stock. Here’s the thing, it’s the bottom of the market, and their division is possibly the worst in baseball.

At 14-12, the gut feeling may be to wait on them until they figure it out, but even the second place team Detroit is four games under .500. Kansas City is on auto fade, Chicago is not close to ready, and Minnesota has regressed. The truth is Cleveland could win this division finishing the year under .500, and they are not going to have to deal with a wild card scenario. I will love to buy some Cleveland Stock at a discount.

AL: +350 / World Series: +700

3. A Budding Superstar

If you listened to SGP’s MLB pre-season win totals and futures podcast or have been annoyed with me RT’ing every one of Joey Gallo’s home runs, you know where I’m going with this. I firmly believe Las Vegas hung the worst number I’ve seen in the last five years in terms of a home run prop provided the player stays healthy. Joey Gallo’s pre-season home run total was set at 35.5 which was a flat-out mistake, but don’t worry if you missed out on that one, there is still a way to invest in one of the most elite power prospects in a very long time.

The Westgate is currently offering progressive odds on 2018 most home runs. Joey Gallo’s preseason number was lined at +1500 and is now only +1000. Name value carries a lot of weight within these props however as you’ll see. Gallo, who currently has 8 is 10/1, yet the favorite is Trout at +300 with 10, and then it moves to Stanton with only 5, Judge with 7, and Harper with 8. Mitch Hanniger is actually leading the league along with…Didi Gregorius, but both are likely to flame out, this happens all the time.

MLB Most Home Runs: Joey Gallo (+1000)

A jack of all trades, Christian got his start in the gambling industry using a model to predict players performance in daily fantasy sports. Eventually, he used that same model to cross over into NFL handicapping, specifically the prop market and honed his craft enough to cross over from player projections into every aspect of sports Handicapping. He then made the full time move to Las Vegas to become a professional sports handicapper, utilizing his knowledge of all sports including NFL, NCAA, NBA, UFC, and MLB. He's currently the resident #DFS expert on The Sports Gambling Podcast as well as managing editor.

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