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First To Third: MLB Weekend Rewind & Look Ahead

First To Third: Weekend Review & Lookahead

Don’t you just love it when a plan comes together? After my praise of Sean Manea’s breakout season, he turns around and no-hits the red-hot Boston Red Sox. On top of that, Blake Snell and Aaron Nola both picked up victories for their teams. Patrick Corbin also had another dominant performance and that 30/1 Cy-Young ticket is looking better and better (Anybody have Prop Swap’s number?) Rick Porcello kept his form, however, Chris Sale and David Price both faltered. Jameson Taillon & Jose Berrios will make their next upcoming starts this week as well.

Jose Berrios: Tuesday, April 24th Vs. New York Yankees (C.C. Sabathia:0-0, 2.70 ERA)

Jameson Taillon: Wednesday, April 25th Vs. Detroit Tigers (Matt Boyd-0-1, 1.40 ERA)

Now that the weekend is in the rear-view, let’s try to use the past to predict the future.

1. Series To Keep An Eye On

Houston Astros Vs. L.A. Angels

The AL West gets a showdown in the first place Astros facing off against The Angels. Houston will send out Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, and Justin Verlander. The Angles will counter with Tyler Skaggs, Shohei Ohtani, and Nick Tropeano. Outside of getting swept by Boston, The Angels appear to be for real this year and may have arrived a year early than most people thought. Their pitching staff is still a bit suspect in truth, but Mike Trout makes up for a lot. Houston, on the other hand, has probably the best starting pitching in the American League outside of Boston, so the first five market may be a better look if you’re going to take Houston’s side. This series will be a true test for The Angels as Houston’s starters are relentless. Garett Cole’s strikeout’s regressed in a huge way going from going from 11,11,14, and all the way down to five. If the market overcorrects, keep an eye out to take advantage.

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays

In another first place vs. second team matchup, Boston continues the road trip to Toronto. Boston lost their first series of the season (and someone who bet them at -150) against Oakland. The Blue Jay’s were white hot winning eight out of their last eleven, however also lost their last series against New York. Look, obviously Boston is going to regress-the pace is too crazy to keep up, but the next level down is still very very good. Boston will send out Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Chris Sale while Toronto counters with J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, and Marco Estrada. This series may be lined a bit shorter than Boston’s past, and even if Toronto is off a losing series, Porcello and Price are a lot to deal with a three-game series. Porcello has a thirteen inning scoreless streak intact. Ride ’em while he’s hot.

2. The Curious Case Of Kyle Freeland

This is a little-known fact, but there actually exists a pitcher who performs much better at Coors than on the road. His name is Kyle Freeland. The good news is he spends half his starts at Coors during the season. I know it’s hard to believe, but take a look at the splits of Kyle Freeland:

Not only does this help with The Rockies, but it also lets you take advantage of the ever-inflated totals of Coors with Freeland on the mound. Freeland takes the mound in Coors against San Diego (Eric Lauer-MLB Debut)

3. Know Where To Get Your Info

They aren’t just a sponsor folks. Truth be told, Oddshark has the best information in the business for gamblers-Especially for MLB. If you aren’t familiar with what they do, I bet you to check them out. They have an amazing tool that is a running tally of the most profitable pitchers in MLB along with the least profitable. These are where you can build your trends and see who is rounding into current form. Chad Bettis, Brandon McCarthy, Nick Pivetta, Taijuan Walker, Julio Teheran and Rick Porcello are the top money earners, while Danny Duffy, Homer Bailey, Jose Urena, Chris Tillman, and Jason Hammel can be put on the autofade list.

Link: OddsShark Super Computer

I’ll check back in with you on all Friday’s First To Third to preview the weekend.

A jack of all trades, Christian got his start in the gambling industry using a model to predict players performance in daily fantasy sports. Eventually, he used that same model to cross over into NFL handicapping, specifically the prop market and honed his craft enough to cross over from player projections into every aspect of sports Handicapping. He then made the full time move to Las Vegas to become a professional sports handicapper, utilizing his knowledge of all sports including NFL, NCAA, NBA, UFC, and MLB. He's currently the resident #DFS expert on The Sports Gambling Podcast as well as managing editor.

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