Happy Monday Night Football friends and fellow degenerates. This week we head to the AFC east where once again the division is filled with teams that are the Patriots and teams that aren’t. In this matchup of the Patriots vs the Dolphins we have many of the usual questions. Am I really going to get in the way of the Patriots cover machine? How can I not take double digits at home?! Have no fear if neither of these proposition seem appealing to you, I will guide down the path less traveled and highlight some inefficiencies in the prop marketplace.
Now lets dive into the matchup and identify the aforementioned matchup to get you paid on Monday Night Football. For more in depth NFL analysis check out(or listen below) the Week Fourteen NFL Picks Podcast where we breakdown and pick all 16 games on the slate.
Season: 57-43-1 (+11.15)
Monday Night Football Game Info
Time: Monday December 11th @ 5:25 PM Pacific
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida
Weather: 60f and clear
TV: ESPN(Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden)
Spread: Patriots -11
Odds courtesy of BetOnline.ag
Monday Night Football Prop Bets – Five Ways to Get Paid
1. Tom Brady Under 2.5 Passing TDs (-120)
Brady is on absolute fire right now which explains the steep price here to take the over. Here is the thing, Brady has only gone over this total in 2 of his last 6 games played in South Beach. Combine that nugget with the absence of his #1 red zone target, as Rob Gronkowski serves his 1 game suspension for a dirty hit last week against the Bills, and you have a recipe for an under.
2. Jay Cutler Under 235.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Sure this number is inflated due to the projected game flow(Pats favored by 11 thus Dolphins will be down and throwing). But they have sucked all year and Cutler has only gone over this number in 1 game!!! Sprinkle in the fact that the Pats pass defense has clawed its way all the way up to 20th from 32nd and I see a recipe for disaster for Cutler fans. In my first dont over think it prop we will be fading Jay Cutler.
3. Kenyon Drake Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Well this is just a volume play. Gase understands that he needs a running game to assist the decrepit Jay Cutler and with Damien Williams out again, the backfield will be all Drake. Now I doubt he gets 23 carries again like he did last week, but with his season average of 4.92 he only needs 14 carries to get the job done. Seeing as the Patriots still rank 32nd in DVOA against the run I like his chances. Take the over.
4. Total Sacks Under 4.5 (-120)
Neither of these teams boast a particularly good pass rush as the Patriots rank 15th and the Dolphins rank 24th in adjusted sack rate. Meanwhile both squads are above average at protecting the QB ranking 12th & 10th respectively at adjusted sack rate on offense. Add in that these teams have combined to average a combined ~4 sacks per game and I will be taking the under.
5. Jarvis Landry Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (+120)
The Patriots have a glaring weakness in their pass defense as they rank 30th in defending passes over the middle and 22nd defending short passes. One more area to emphasize this weakness is their 24th ranked defense against #1 WRs. This is a perfect storm for the very reliable #1 slot man Jarvis Landry as I expect them to go his way early and often to keep the chains moving and keep Brady off the field.
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!