1.CJ Beathard is a ticking time bomb
It’s hard to make a case week in and week out for backing a team with your hard earned dollars that is 0-9. The thing was, San Francisco went on somewhat of a historic gambling run this season by being one of the only teams in the past two seasons to consistently cover spreads, yet have no chance at winning a game outright. My general rule of thumb is that if I don’t think an underdog can win a game, I won’t put my own hard earned money behind them.
The whole point in this game is to buy low and sell high with teams, but CJ Beathard is simply not competent enough. Here’s where it gets tricky however, as you know that Jimmy Garrapolo is waiting in the wings for the call to come off the bench. San Francisco has a bye week upcoming in week 11, making week 12 the most likely starting point for Jimmy G.
Depending on how bad Beathard does implode however, that could come sooner, and I don’t want to be apart of a Jimmy G backdoor anytime soon now that San Francisco is going on the auto fade list. The lesson to me is bank on Beathard being bad, and if he’s bad enough to get the hook, he’s going to have to play first. The lesson: Fade San Francisco in the first quarter and first half. If Beathard is going to play, I want a piece of fading him.
2. Buffalo Is Regression Candidate Of The Year
I’ve been beating my chest all season (while burning money at the window) telling anyone that will listen that Buffalo is primed for regression. No, this isn’t some “It’s Buffalo guys, come on” statement with nothing to support it. Buffalo has been out gained in 3 of its 5 wins, and only were 5-2 coming into this week due to one thing: turnovers. They were again out gained by Oakland, yet were +4 in turnovers in week 8. In week 9 the turnover train stopped and regression came all at once in the form of Josh McCown and the high flying New York Jets.
Buffalo is home this week to The Saints and getting 3 points at home. This isn’t even enough for me to think about Buffalo here as I’ll be backing The Saints at a reduced price, because for some reason, people think Buffalo isn’t a bottom of the league team, still.
3. The Most Profitable Of Trends
The trick with trends is knowing which ones actually mean something, and which ones don’t. Extra rest? It probably matters due a teams makeup and coaching. How a team plays on Thursday nights when the temperature is below 35 degrees? I couldn’t care less. That being said, game script and quarter breakdowns actually make sense of a trend to monitor because it states a team has a specific game plan that is working. The two I’ve locked in on this season? Philadelphia Eagles are 9-0 ATS in the first half of games, and The New York Jets (Yes) are 9-0 ATS in the first half, as well as 8-1 in the first quarter ATS. Put those two props on auto-back and sit back.
4. Lay The Favorite
Favorites on Sunday went 6-3-2 against the number, bringing the total for the last 3 NFL Sundays to 22-9-4 for 71% Another primetime favorite also came in on Monday with Detroit winning and covering and never really being in doubt. Look, I don’t know what this truly says, I’m simply giving you the numbers right now. The professional sides again took a beating as noted professional money was on Denver, Tampa Bay (Myself included), Miami, and Green Bay. Trust your eyes, and if your a dog bettor, hold on for dear life and whether the storm.
5. The Sharp Stat
Alright, stay with me on this one folks. This was brought to my attention by a close friend and great handicapper Adam Chernoff (@AdamChernoff). Every year since 2000, a team in the top 3 of net yards per play has made the Super Bowl. Currently: Atlanta, Jacksonville, and Minnesota. Atlanta has played the second most difficult compounding schedule while Jacksonville has played the easiest.
Atlanta is coming off another loss to Carolina while Jacksonville handled The Bengals just fine. Atlanta is available for +1400 in most places for The NFC, Minnesota at +800. I don’t trust Bortles to ever think about winning a playoff game, so that ones on you to dig up. Oh, Minnesota is possibly getting Teddy Bridgewater back sooner rather than later. The Buy sign is flashing on both Atlanta and Minnesota.