Happy Thursday y’all! Week Seven is here and with it comes a card that is filled with home dogs and un certain spreads. The matchup at hand is one of those home dogs facing the only 5-1 team in the AFC. The Chiefs enter this matchup as the best team in the AFC(for now) where they look to rebound from a classic Andy Reid “Gut” game where he makes a decision that costs his team points. The Raiders on the other hand are in the midst of a 4 game losing streak and are in desperation mode as the question must be asked, is this team any good or did they just get lucky as fuck last year.
Lets dive into the matchup and find some angles in the prop market to get you paid on Thursday Night Football. For more in depth NFL analysis check out the Week Seven NFL Picks Podcast where we breakdown and pick all 15 games on the slate.
Season: 15-14-1 (-1.3u)
Thursday Night Football Game Info
Time: Thursday October 19th @ 5:30 PM Pacific
Location: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, Calif.
Weather: 64f and partly cloudy w/ 10ph winds
TV: CBS, NFL Network & Amazon Prime
Spread: Chiefs -3
Thursday Night Football Prop Bets – Five Ways to Get Paid
1. Marshawn Lynch Over 55.5 rush yards (-110)
Jack Del Rio is not what I would call a great coach, and as we are seeing the luck of close games last year is regressing quite nicely this year. That being said I am sure he noticed Le’Veon Bell just shredded the Chiefs 30th ranked rush defense to the tune of 30 for 170. This matchup is too juicy for me to pass based on usage. Del Rio figures it out and feeds BEAST MODE.
2. Tyreek Hill Over 54.5 receiving yards (-110) & 3. Over 24.5 Longes reception (-110)
The Raiders have Khalil Mack, and thats about it on defense. Oakland currently ranks 29th in pass defense dvoa, and are just atrocious defending short WR screens and the deep pass. Which brings us to the question, How do they stop Tyreek Hill? Its classic strength vs weakness and I encourage you to join me in taking both these overs as he may cash both these tickets with one catch.
3. Kareem Hunt Over 30.5 recieving yards (-110)
Hunt has been unstoppable in is rookie campaign after being drafted in the 3rd round out of Toledo. As much as I looked at his rushing yards prop I dont think its the week to play it in spite of the seemingly juice matchup due to offensive line injuries. The stronger play is to take over 30.5 receiving yards as I believe the Raiders have no choice but to load the box and attempt to slow down the key cog in the Chiefs offense. In doing so the Raiders will be vulnerable to Hunt’s pass catching ability out of the back field. Mix in the fact that the Raiders have allowed running backs to catch ~5.3 balls for 55.3 yards per game and lock it up, Hunt over the total.
4. Travis Kelce Over 5.5 receptions (-110)
The Raiders are 25th in the league defending the tight end according to DVOA, surrendering 6.2 for 55.3 yards per game. On top of that Kelce got shut down last game and when Kelce gets shutdown he comes back in a big way. This year in the 2 games where he was held to under 5.5 catches he rebounded for 7 and 8 catches. Last game he was held to 4 catches and I expect the trend to continue. Look for the Chiefs to sprinkle in some screens and shovel passes to Kelce as he gets over the total.
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!
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