Seattle Seahawks (1) vs Denver Broncos (1)
Time: Sunday February 2nd @ 3:30 PM Pacific
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Weather: 34° F w/ wind and partly cloudy
Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Harlan, Boomer Esiason, James Lofton, Mark Malone)
TV: FOX (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman)
Spread: Broncos -2.5
Prop List: Download the PDF thanks to the LVH Sports Book
Download A Super Bowl Squares Print Out – Here
State Your Case: Seattle Seahawks
Matchup: Manning vs Mother Nature, you’ve heard me say it over and over again, the weather will play a role in this game. We all saw the way Manning floated some ducks out there 2 weeks ago. I believe the lack of arm strength coupled with the almost certain 10-15 mph wind and the fast and physical Hawks defense will be a little to much for Peyton to over come. Manning will start to press and start making bad decisions and this will lead to a couple key turnovers.
Situation: The Seahawks as a dog, under Pete Carroll, are 17-3-1 ATS since 2011. The man is a motivational mastermind and you want to give him the added edge of implying that his team wont win, oh no. Look for the Seahawks to set the tone early controlling the line of scrimmage, moving Manning off of his spot and punishing the Bronco WRs. I expect a conservative game plan on offense and the Broncos to play a bit of man to man coverage giving Wilson opportunities to break the game open with his legs. Oh and yeah BEAST MODE!!!
Stats: Gotta love the matchup, the Seahawks are #1 total DVOA, the Broncos are #2 total DVOA. The Seahawks have the #1 Def DVOA, the Broncos have the #1 Off DVOA. Those are the headliners but I think one of the keys to this game lies hidden in the weeds waiting to strike, and thats special teams. A favorite area of mine is to find hidden potential matchup problems and I believe I’ve found one. The Seahawks have the #6 WEI ST DVOA including a punt unit that has only given up 82 return yards all year. Meanwhile the Broncos have the #28 WEI ST DVOA and uncertainty at the PR position with Holliday’s ball security issues. Look for Seattle to own the field position battle and force Manning to work with a long field.*For more on DVOA check out the Football Outsiders
Donkey Trend: The Seahawks are 3-12 against the Broncos since 1995…seriously this was used in a breakdown on the radio, I just don’t get it!!
Sharp Trend: The Seahawks as a dog under Pete Carroll are 17-3-1 ATS. Call me a cheater, I don’t care that trend is so good ill use it twice.
State Your Case: Denver Broncos
Matchup: Peyton Manning vs Eli Manning. Having less Super Bowl wins then your brother is a haunting reality Peyton Manning must face and only a win Sunday can help shake that. Statistics and commons sense support the idea that Peyton Manning is the greatest QB of all time, but with out multiple Super Bowl wins Peyton will always be in doubt for Greatest Of All Time.
Situation: The Broncos have dominated as a favorite this year going 11-4 ATS when favored from 0.5 – 13.5. It’s hard to overlook experience in this game, the Seahawks are coming in with no Super Bowl experience, the last team who did that was the 1990 Buffalo Bills. If you don’t think big game experience pays dividends just ask Scott Norwood. Manning is one of the most experienced players in the game and he’s going to be game planning against Pete Carroll who couldn’t stop Vince Young in the Rose Bowl.
Stats: Points per game, yards per game, time of possession, red zone conversion and penalties all favor the Denver Broncos. The biggest number of this game 55. That’s how many TDs Peyton Manning threw this year and with a diverse receiving core the Broncos can beat you a number of ways in the air and wisely rely on Peyton Manning’s superb decision making. With a 115.1 QB rating perhaps Lynch isn’t the only player finding ‘Beast Mode’ this year. The Broncos defense has come on as of late as well, in the past four games they haven’t let up more than 17 points.
Donkey Trend: Broncos are 14-34 ATS as a favorite since 2006. C’mon man! As I pointed out their recent record ATS as a favorite is much more realistic and favorable for the Broncos.
Sharp Trend: Peyton Manning 28-7 as a starter for the Broncos, pretty strong trend.
State Your Case: The National Anthem
Ryan’s Pick: Under 2 min 25 sec -130 – I know its an opera singer but she will be cold.
Sean’s Pick: Over 2 min 25 sec +100 – Even money on an opera sing? She’s a long winded soprano easy $.
State Your Case: The Coin Toss
Ryan’s Pick: Tails -103 – You know tails never fails right?
Sean’s Pick: Heads -103 – Fade the public who loves tails for some reason.
State Your Case: Player to score 1st TD
Ryan’s Pick: Jermaine Kearse +2500 – It’s a bit of a dog but man I love his ability to go up and get the ball and at the price its well worth it.
Sean’s Pick: Russell Wilson +1400 – I could see a goal line bootleg very easily here.
State Your Case: What Color will the Gatorade (or liquid) be?
Ryan’s Pick: Blue +700 – DUH
Sean’s Pick: Blue +700 – Broncos & Seahawks colors make it the sensible choice.
State Your Case: Who will the Super Bowl MVP?
Ryan’s Pick: Kam Chancellor +7500 – Virginia Tech in the house! Watch out for the hardest hitting safety in the league, pick 6, forced fumble and 2 sacks, you can lock that up.
Sean’s Pick: Russell Wilson +300 – Consider the Seahawks ML is +110 there is a lot of value here if you like the Seahawks.
Ryan’s Pick: Seahawks +3 -125 (I’m gonna guess this gets to +3 with 71% on DEN, Don’t forget to sprinkle the ML).
Ryan’s Score: Seahawks 27 – Broncos 21 – Gotta stand by my playoff mantra, don’t over think it.
Ryan’s Prop 1: Marshawn Lynch Over 92.5 Rush yards -110.
Ryan’s Prop 2: Wes Welker 1st Reception Under 7.5 yards +110
Ryan’s Prop 3: Total # of different players to have a passing attempt OVER 2.5 +290 Carroll has a HB pass in him.
Sean’s Pick: Seahawks +3 -125 or +3.5 if there is a chance for it.
Sean’s Score: Seahawks 24 – Broncos 20 – Too physical for the Broncos.
Sean’s Prop 1: Russell Wilson Over 211.5 Passing Yards -110.
Sean’s Prop 2: Demaryius Thomas Receptions -.5 vs Tiger Woods 4th Round Birdies EVEN – Woods is done!
Sean’s Prop 3: Longest Completion by Peyton Mannning Under 34.5 -110 – WIND!