New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks

New Orleans Saints (6) at Seattle Seahawks (1)

by Ryan Kramer and Sean Green

Time: Saturday January 11th @ 1:35 PM Pacific
Location: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA
Weather: 49° F w/20mph wind and rain
Radio: Westwood One (Dave Sims, Mark Malone, Scott Kaplan)
TV: FOX (Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch)
Spread: Seahawks -8
MoneyLine: -380/+310
Total: 46

State Your Case: New Orleans Saints

Matchup: I know that I’m stretching here, but I love this Saints team in “us vs the world” scenarios. Seems like no one is giving them a shot including vegas suggesting a approximately 79% chance they lose. This team came together last week to do something that Brees and Peyton weren’t exactly good at, winning on the road in the playoffs(1st road playoff win in franchise history). The will have to limit their mistakes and play great D but don’t count this unit out.

Situation: Dare I bring up revenge. The Saints were thumped in a 13 matchup that…lets be frank, got away from the Saints in a hurry. I think this allowed Brees and Peyton to make some mental notes and perhaps save those adjustments for a potential playoff matchup. The revenge combined with the experience advantage for the Saints could be the difference.

Stats: I look no further to what i believe is the biggest weakness for the Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, SACKS. New Orleans has been one of the top teams in the league this year with the 4th best Def Adjusted Sack Rate. Meanwhile the Seahawks have THE WORST Off Adjusted Sack Rate. Seems hard to believe due to the amount of credit folks give Wilson for being elusive, but he takes a lot of sacks. Don’t be surprised if New Orleans brings some cajun style heat and puts some hits on the Seattle QB…WHO DAT. *For more on DVOA check out the Football Outsiders

Donkey Trend: Seattle is 24-45 ATS off a win against a division rival since 1992. I couldnt believe it when i saw someone citing this gem…really this Seattle team during that time frame got a whole new set of division rivals when they moved from the AFC west to the NFC west in 2002

Sharp Trend: The under has hit in 7 of 9 Saints road games, as well as 5 of 8 Seahawks Home games. Not to mention that 6 out of 8 Seattle home games went under 42 pts.

State Your Case: Seattle Seahawks

Matchup:Seahawks Defense vs Saints Offense. The Saints were able to achieve a solid road win against the Eagles by running the ball and controlling the clock. You can’t expect the same results against this Seattle defense which is a huge upgrade from Philadelphia. In their 8 home games the Seahawks only let up more than 20 pts once, and they still won that game against the Tampa Bay Bucs 27-24.

Situation: Yes the Saints won on the road last week, but even with that win they are still 2-7 ATS on the road this year against the Seahawks who are 5-3 ATS at home and benefiting from rest. The bye week has already helped this Seattle team as Percy Harvin has been cleared to play and could have a dramatic effect on the game. Plus you have Marshawn Lynch at home in the playoffs who has no problem asking the Saints to hold his dick in a big game.

Stats: Seattle’s defense is dominating, #1 in yards allowed at 273.6 per game, #1 in points per game at 14.4 and #1 in pass yards per game allowing only 172 yards in the air per game. The Saints offense isn’t the same on the road and their going up against the best defense in the league.

Donkey Trend: Seahawks are 7-18 coming off a bye in their last 25 regular season games. Tough to imagine the Mike Holmgren era will have much impact on this game and Seattle already proved they can win coming off a bye against the Saints doing so earlier in this year winning 34-7.

Sharp Trend: Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7. With the exception of the wakeup call courtesy of the Arizona Cardinals the Seahawks have been on fire the second half of the season and seem poised to make a run at the Super Bowl.

The Picks:

Ryan’s Pick: Under 46.
Ryan’s Score: Seahawks 27 – Saints 17.
Ryan’s Bonus: Total Sacks Over 5…also I just cant help myself Tease Seahawks to -2 and the Pats to -1 for -110 and call it a day.

Sean’s Pick: Seahawks -7 (-120).
Sean’s Score: Seahawks 30 – Saints 20.
Sean’s Bonus: Marshawn Lynch Over 85.5 rushing yards.

Listen to the latest edition of the Sports Gambling Podcast for an entire Divisional Round breakdown.

Ryan Kramer and Sean Green are writers and co-hosts for the Sports Gambling Podcast. Follow the show on twitter @GamblingPodcast.