Week 10 Weekday Games Preview & Picks | The College Football Experience (1) Recap
The College Football Experience on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network continues its Week 10 weekday games preview and picks with Colby Dant (@TheColbyD) and Ryan McIntyre (@Moneyline_Mac), plus Troy Chewning (@Troychewning) dropping in. How is Miami number one with that schedule? How does two-loss Texas sit seventh while undefeated UCLA is eighth? Can FAU knock off UTSA outright at plus 220? Will Nevada hang with New Mexico as a 10 and a half point dog?
And who does Florida State turn to after firing Mike Norvell? We talk it all and more on this episode of The College Football Experience.
The Committee’s First Playoff Rankings Get Torched
The first College Football Playoff rankings dropped, and Colby Dant spent the opening segment pulling the committee’s logic apart. Miami sits at No. 1 at 8-0, but its best win came at Wake Forest. Wake, meanwhile, landed all the way down at No. 16. So if beating Wake is the centerpiece of the No. 1 resume, why is Wake buried? Colby notes that Wake blew out the same opponents by more. It also owns more wins over teams with winning records. No team was more dominant against Power Five competition in October, and he argues a blind resume test puts Wake in the top five.
Ryan McIntyre saved his fire for Texas at No. 7. The Longhorns lost to Oklahoma at a neutral site and then lost at home to Florida and a backup quarterback. Mac would have them somewhere between 20 and 25, if they’re ranked at all. Then there’s UCLA at No. 8, an undefeated team with a road win at Oregon and a 51-point win at Maryland. The guys can’t square that with two-loss Alabama sitting at No. 5. Florida at No. 24 drew laughs too, because the Gators have three 20-point losses this season.
Mike Norvell Out At Florida State
Florida State fired Mike Norvell, and Mac wasn’t surprised. He called Norvell an average coach, not a horrible one. He also thinks Norvell would do well back at the American level after his run at Memphis. Colby floated Sam Houston and a possible Arkansas State opening as natural fits, given his Arkansas ties. The bigger debate was whether the Florida State job is still elite. Neither host would call it a top-25 job right now. The debt is a problem, and so is a dysfunctional setup that still has no athletic director. Mac pushed for Manny Diaz, while Troy Chewning pitched a budget reunion with Jimbo Fisher. Colby, meanwhile, thinks Brian Kelly would be a really smart hire.
Pop Quiz Hotshot Hits The Hot Seat
The Land Down Under segment ran through a long list of pop quizzes. Mac called Texas A&M at South Carolina the best foxhole spot of the week. His reason is simple, because Mike Elko needs a big win and Beamer has choked away games before. He also tabbed the Aggies as the most likely Week 10 upset among the double-digit lines. Colby first leaned Michigan State over Michigan, then came around to Mac’s answer. In the Group of Five, both hosts put North Carolina at UConn at the top of the upset list and Nevada over New Mexico second.
On the watch list, the Holy War between BYU and Utah topped both rankings, and Colby is headed to Salt Lake City for it. Kentucky at Tennessee led the second tier for both hosts, since Will Stein has that program buzzing. The hot-seat questions got sharp too. Mac has Brent Venables as the first coach fired from his list, with Sonny Dykes second. Colby went with Dykes first after a TCU fan told him that change could come soon. And on the Group of Five side, Mac pointed at Ken Niumatalolo at San Jose State.
Week 10 Weekday Games Preview: Wednesday MACtion Locks
Wednesday starts with Ball State at UMass, where the Minutemen are laying 3.5 with a total of 49.5. Colby called it a lock and sees something like a 20-9 final. Mac is right there with him, because UMass comes off a bye with Pop Watson healthy. So it’s a double lock on the Minutemen. Then Toledo heads to the Nest to face Sac State, which is still chasing its first win as an FBS member. The Hornets are catching 25.5 at home. Colby has Toledo winning by around 18, and Mac says it’s just too many points. He sees a 17-point loss, so that’s another double lock, this time on Sac State.
The Wednesday nightcap is Central Michigan against Eastern Michigan at Ford Field, a rivalry that goes back 124 years. Eastern is laying 1.5, and Colby is taking the Chippewas to win outright. He’d actually prefer Chris Creighton’s team win it, but he can’t get there. This game also matters for bowl eligibility on both sides. Mac likes how close Central has played lately, with two straight one-possession losses to Miami (Ohio) and Western Michigan. His angle is to fade Creighton as a favorite in that dome. It’s a double lock on the Chips, though Colby admits it’s the Wednesday pick he feels least about.
Thursday Means FAU Outright And A Howard Split
Thursday’s biggest game is UTSA at FAU, and both hosts want the Owls outright. FAU is catching 6.5 at home, and Colby saw the moneyline at +220. Mac thinks the FAU offense can move the ball in a lit Thursday environment. He likes FAU to win it on the last possession. UTSA also has North Texas on deck for first place in the conference. So the guys don’t believe the Roadrunners run the table. And if UTSA survives this one, Colby is already circling its November 21st trip to UAB.
South Carolina State heads to Howard laying 15.5, and this one split the room. Colby is on the Bison plus the points. He thinks Howard is better than its 4-5 record under first-year coach Ted White. Mac likes South Carolina State but is passing on a bet. Troy lays it, figuring the Bulldogs win by around 17. Later Thursday, JMU lays 14.5 at Southern Miss. Nobody is grabbing the dog here. Colby sees a 45-17 type of game, and Mac says the Dukes won’t drop a third straight Thursday. Double lock on JMU.
Friday Night Belongs To The Home Teams
Friday opens with South Florida at ECU, where the Pirates are laying 2.5. Mac thinks USF is a little counterfeit and doesn’t trust an offense that plays super slow. So he’s all over ECU at home in Greenville. Colby is on the Pirates too, and Troy jumped in to make it a triple lock. Virginia Tech at SMU was a different story. SMU lays 5.5 with a total of 56.5, and the winner gets a real shot at the ACC title game. Colby takes the Hokies plus the points. But Mac lays it with SMU, while Troy goes over 56.5, so that’s three different bets.
The guys are on Illinois as a home dog against Nebraska, which lays 4.5. Colby likes the Illini moneyline at +175. Both hosts will also bet the points in case it’s a field goal game. Then comes New Mexico at Nevada, where the line has moved to 10.5. Mac notes it’s the Lobos’ third road game in four weeks on a short week. That makes it a double lock on the Wolf Pack plus 10.5, with a sprinkle on the +320 moneyline. Last up, Arizona lays 9.5 against TCU in Tucson. Colby thinks the Wildcats drill them, and Mac sees a tough short-week spot for TCU. Double lock, and Mac finishes with all five home teams on Friday night.
Podcast Chapters
00:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
00:59 Welcome to the College Football Experience
05:52 Playoff Rankings Corruption
26:50 Mike Norvell Fired by Florida State
36:03 Pop Quiz Hotshot: Northwestern, Arizona, Duke or North Texas
37:50 Best Foxhole Spot
40:08 Coaches Back Next Year & Best Hire for NC State, Sam Houston State
44:40 Games You Wanna See Most This Weekend
57:06 Most Likely Week 10 Upset
59:43 Most Likely Interim Head Coach Win
1:01:30 Will a Blowout Loss Mean This Coach Is Fired
1:04:21 Best FCS Match Up This Week
1:05:30 Who’s Better, USC or Louisville
1:10:36 Dumbest Game of the Week
1:13:46 Ball State vs. UMass Picks
1:15:00 Toledo vs. Sac State Picks
1:16:32 Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan Picks
1:18:23 UTSA vs. FAU Picks
1:20:20 South Carolina State vs. Howard Picks
1:23:11 JMU vs. Southern Miss Picks
1:23:53 South Florida vs. ECU Picks
1:26:50 Virginia Tech vs. SMU Picks
1:29:40 Nebraska vs. Illinois Picks
1:31:22 New Mexico vs. Nevada Picks
1:33:24 TCU vs. Arizona Picks
1:34:37 Sign-Off & Socials
