Thursday Night Football Week 9 Prop Bets Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) are joined by Scott Reichel (@ReichelRadio) for Thursday Night Football prop bets as the Jaguars visit a Ravens team that still doesn’t know who its quarterback is. Scott Reichel goes under on Mark Andrews‘ longest catch, and Ryan Kramer rides Justice Hill over 16.5 rushing yards.
A Big Week Eight And A Bears Defense With Teeth
Week eight was a good one. Ryan Kramer swept his three locks, his moneyline dog and the teaser, and the guys went 4-1 in the Circa Million. Both hosts are sitting at 61% on their locks. The only real blemish was a Close Your Eyes Special that didn’t get home, although Kramer still found a way to lose money on the Chargers and would like you to know he should have been 5-0. The best news came out of Chicago, because both hosts were on the Bears and Kramer had them as his moneyline dog against Seattle.
Sean Green watched Jeffrey Simmons blow up the Seattle offensive line right away. Kramer went further and said the guard and center next to Quenton Nelson were getting embarrassed, and the Bears weren’t even blitzing to get home. With Caleb Williams cooking, D’Andre Swift running well and a defense that keeps generating turnovers, Sean called this a championship caliber team. Seattle looks like the other Sam Darnold. The run game isn’t there, so Kramer thinks the offense is easy to solve once you take it away and live with JSN getting his. He also isn’t sure the Seahawks are a playoff team.
Swift, Braden Smith And The Ones That Got Away
Scott Reichel from the Prop Cast joined the show after a 2-1 night. Booker tackles and assists cashed, and so did Caleb Williams first half rushing yards under, a market Scott says has been a wagon since Williams came back from injury. The loss was a D’Andre Swift rushing under. Swift already had 24 carries and Chicago was up 17 with about two minutes left. Then Ben Johnson sent him back out for three more carries, and Swift went over. Scott rarely gets worked up about a result, but he couldn’t find an angle on that one. Sean’s read was simpler: Scott wanted his broom emoji.
The NBA stung more. The Pacers had six active players on the entire team, and once that news hit, Scott wanted Braden Smith at 10 assists, priced around 10-1. But the books took their sweet time posting it. The line got nuked within a minute, and Smith went on to hand out 10 assists anyway. So that one goes down as the one that got away. College hoops also tipped off this week, and Kramer went 2-0 backing the hometown South Carolina teams in the classic while first half unders hit across a big chunk of opening day.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bets For Jaguars At Ravens
Jacksonville heads to Baltimore, and nobody knows who’s playing quarterback for the Ravens. Joe Fagnano looks like the guess, but he’s banged up with a foot issue. The most aggressive estimates on Tyler Huntley run two to four weeks, and reports say Lamar might be done for the season with an injury to the finger on his throwing hand. Scott believes the Ravens also signed Austin Reed to the practice squad. That backdrop sets up Scott’s first play, Mark Andrews longest reception under 11.5 at -115. Andrews hasn’t had an 11-plus yard catch in six straight games. Meanwhile the Jaguars rank number one in the league at preventing yards to tight ends.
Sean is on Derrick Henry under 70.5 rushing yards. The thinking goes that Baltimore can’t throw, so it has to lean on Henry, but that plays right into Jacksonville’s hands. The Jags are the best team in the league against running back rush yards, and RB1s have stayed under 61.5 yards against them all season. Kramer cosigned the under. Then he faded Henry a second way with Justice Hill over 16.5 rushing yards, because losing the horizontal speed of Lamar kills Henry’s ability to get downhill and Hill can be that speed element on the outside. His favorite stat from the Jags game log: Damien Pierce, 11 carries for 14 yards.
Scott went to the Jacksonville side for his second play, Jakobi Meyers first half receptions over 1.5 at -127. Meyers has two-plus first half catches in four of his last five, and Baltimore allows 13.1 catches per game to wide receivers, eighth most in the league. Scott thinks the Jaguars probably roll here. That’s exactly why he wants the first half, since a big lead means the Jags run the ball all second half like they did against the Colts. Keep an eye on the injury report, though, because Kramer found Meyers limited in practice with a hamstring and ankle.
Sean’s play is the rookie backup tight end, Nate Burkysher over 6.5 receiving yards. Baltimore gives up 20.8 receiving yards a game to backup tight ends, and Burkysher has been clearing this number in the games where he catches a pass, including a 31-yard grab last game. At 6.5 it feels way too low. Kramer, meanwhile, wants Joe Fagnano rushing yards under. The early line was 12.5 yards on 3.5 carries, and Kramer would play the under even at 6.5 because Fagnano looked completely immobile. Scott added that he ran three times for three yards against Buffalo.
Scott’s last prop is Trevor Lawrence pass attempts under 31.5 at -107. Lawrence has thrown fewer than 32 passes in seven of his last nine games. He’s also stayed under 30 attempts in all three games the Jaguars won by nine or more this season, and Jacksonville is favored by around eight and a half or nine here. Sean goes the other way on the Jags passing game with Parker Washington over 63.5 receiving yards. Baltimore allows 90 yards a game to WR1s, and Washington had 64 and 124 before last week’s 16. Sean expects a couple of deep shots to get him there.
Kramer’s hunch is Travis Hunter. He read a practice report saying the way Jacksonville structured Hunter’s offensive work this week felt a lot like the week of the Houston game, when Hunter caught four passes for 59 yards. Because Hunter hasn’t done much of anything yet, there’s an easy, fun way to play it, and Kramer took him for two catches at +190. Brian Thomas for two catches at +165 caught his eye too. And if Hunter lines up in the slot, Kramer sees it doubling as a quiet fade of Meyers.
The Underdog Entry And First Touchdown Scorers
The guys built one Underdog entry out of the props, and a $100 entry pays $515. Scott ran back Mark Andrews lower 11.5 longest reception. Kramer stuck with Justice Hill higher 16.5 rush yards instead of paying a premium on the 32.5 rush and receiving number, because he expects way more volume for Hill. Sean kept it simple with Nate Burkysher higher 7.5 receiving yards, only one yard more than the number he already liked. Kramer also gets the sense Brenton Strange isn’t 100%, which only helps the Burkysher case.
Scott went three Jaguars and one Raven for first touchdown. He wants Jakobi Meyers at 13-1 and the Burkysher backup tight end angle at +2000, while Strange sits around half that price at 10-1 with hardly any red zone looks. He added the Jaguars defense at 22-1 against a third-string quarterback, then a lone Ravens dart at 35-1. Sean kept it to two Jags, Burkysher at 20-1 and Trevor Lawrence at 18-1, since Lawrence always seems to find a prime time rushing touchdown. Kramer also took Burkysher at 20-1, plus Travis Hunter at 32-1 and Justice Hill at 22-1. His deepest shot is LeQuint Allen at 80-1 with Tuten and Chris Rodriguez both on the injury report.
Degen Longshots And A 52-1 Travis Hunter Ladder
For the Degen play, Scott leaned into the Ravens offense being historically bad: Jaguars defense to score two touchdowns with the game under 48.5, around 94-1. Kramer saw it come in and admitted they were in the same street this week, so he’s playing it too. Sean’s Degen parlay is Nate Burkysher 50-plus receiving yards and Trevor Lawrence to score a touchdown at 65-1. Scott called that one cute. Then again, when Scott first started doing these Thursday appearances, he was the one handing out 50-something to 1 shots while Kramer went to 350-1.
Kramer pivoted to a Travis Hunter alt ladder built off that Houston game: Jaguars win, Hunter three catches, 50-plus yards and an anytime touchdown. Sean guessed 20-1 and Scott guessed 85-1. It came back at 52-1. Kramer is also openly rooting for his Jags-Bears exacta, which he thinks is somewhere around 135-1 and sealed in an envelope in the safe so he stops checking it. Sean and Kramer are back tomorrow night for college football with Colby Dant after a 5-2 week in the contest. Scott, meanwhile, is moving to Florida, starting with an Airbnb for a month and a place roughly 10 minutes from the Hard Rock. Of course.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:44 Bears, Jeffrey Simmons & Seahawks
5:34 Scott Reichel Swift & Braden Smith
11:49 Jags Heading to Baltimore
12:38 Mark Andrews Longest Reception Under
17:23 Derrick Henry Under Rushing Yards
18:11 Justice Hill Over Rushing Yards
22:13 Jakobi Meyers First Half Receptions
24:02 Nate Burkysher Over Receiving Yards
26:09 Joe Fagnano Rushing Yards Under
29:21 Trevor Lawrence Pass Attempts Under
30:55 Parker Washington Over Receiving Yards
32:02 Travis Hunter Two Catches
34:40 Underdog Entry
38:07 First TDs
41:44 Jaguars Defense Two Touchdowns
43:25 Travis Hunter Alt Ladder
46:11 College Football & Scott Moving to Florida
48:55 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
