The calendar has flipped to November, the days are getting shorter, and the weather is changing across most of the country. It’s the perfect time of year to do nothing but watch football from the comfort of your own couch. Let’s head into The Confidence Playbook and make our NFL confidence pool picks for Week 9.
Just two teams are on bye this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans. That leaves us 15 games to select from in our weekly rankings here. International games are back after a week off. The Bengals and Falcons will square off in Madrid, Spain, for another morning, 9:30 ET kickoff.
Can’t Miss – High Confidence Picks
1. Jaguars Over Ravens
2. Chiefs Over Jets
3. Lions Over Dolphins
4. 49ers Over Raiders
5. Seahawks Over Cardinals
We’re going to go straight for the jugular with the top pick. If Thursday Night Football is included in your pool, let’s ride with the Jaguars. Jacksonville heads to Baltimore on a short week. Typically, this should be a tough game, but the Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson. They’ll also likely be without Tyler Huntley, who suffered a toe injury and needs an MRI. That leaves Joe Fagnano as the starter on a short week. Jacksonville is an elite team; I’ll take them.
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off back-to-back losses. Now, they get the New York Jets. Get ready for Patrick and Andy to break out the belt and put down a beatdown. New York will feel their full wrath.
The Detroit Lions head to South Beach to face the Dolphins. Miami has played a little better the last two weeks, but they still aren’t a great football team. The Lions have had their share of bumps, but in a competitive division, they need to take care of easy wins like this one.
Sam Fransico is still banged up coming off the bye, but they’ll be a lot fresher as they welcome the Raiders to Levi Stadium. This one is as simple as playing the much better team in this game. Off a loss and then the bye, the 49ers will be ready for this one.
Arizona has been playing spoiler all season long, so they deserve their flowers. But going into the home of the 12th man in a big divisional game is going to be a tall task. This Seattle defense is the easy difference in this game.
Feelin’ Good – Confident Picks
6. Bears Over Buccaneers
7. Rams Over Commanders
8. Browns Over Saints
9. Texans Over Chargers
10. Cowboys Over Colts
Chicago will host Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Chicago has proven to be one of the better teams in the country when Caleb Williams is healthy. Tampa has played better lately, especially on defense, and is coming off a gritty win over the Falcons in some crazy weather. However, the Bears are the better football team and should come out on top in this game.
Sean McVay and his genius football mind against Jayden Daniels and his inability to know how to spike the ball? Need I say more? Los Angeles hasn’t looked like the super team we were promised, but they are a solid squad and will take care of business.
Who knew Browns vs. Saints would be this good of a matchup? Even more so, who knew the Browns would make the confident section of these picks? Well, here we are. Cleveland has proven to be a solid team. They are more trustworthy than the Saints, and we’ll ride with them.
At this point, I’m done hoping and wishing and praying on the Chargers. They are 0-5-1 on the year ATS, just as disappointing as their real record. Houston has played every game close, even against some of the best teams. Bonus points for Houston as they are fresh off their bye week. Easy Texans pick here.
I’m not sure I should put Cowboys and confident in the same sentence, but here we are. Indianapolis has begun the teardown. If you hoped to see any fight or resilience out of this team last week, you were sadly disappointed. Dallas needs a bounce back, and this is it.
Hold Your Breath – True Toss Ups
11. Bills Over Vikings
12. Patriots Over Packers
13. Bengals Over Falcons
14. Panthers Over Broncos
15. Giants Over Eagles
There are some tough games in this toss-up section this week. Buffalo should be the better team, and Minnesota may just rack up back-to-back losses here. Give me Josh Allen over Brian Flores.
New England is a team that’s still worth trusting in my opinion. Green Bay has looked better and better as the season has gone along. I do see this as a toss-up, but I’ll take the home favorites.
Cincinnati struggled last week with Tennessee, which is a bit concerning. I could see this game being a big time shootout. I’ll take Joe Burrow over Michael Penix in Spain, though.
This one was a really tough one to pick. Carolina has let me down in back-to-back games, but I’ll trust them one more time. Denver is in a great letdown spot after an emotional win over Kansas City. Traveling to the East Coast, I’ll give the home team a small edge.
This Giants-Eagles game gives me the “don’t want to touch vibes.” So we’ll put it at the very bottom. I do not like backing JJ McCarthy at all. But I like Tanner McKee even less. If the Eagles go to Joe Milton, flip this pick and give me Philadelphia. If not, in JJ we trust?
