I’m going to be real with everybody reading this. My recent FCS picks have been ass. Straight up, the last few weekends felt like I was betting with a blindfold on. Ranked favorites that looked like locks to cover didn’t. I chased dogs that just couldn’t quite get there, despite holding leads early in the game. However, this week I’m resetting. We have to do that as gamblers as well. If you’ve tailed, I apologize. I’ve lost the money as well as I bet on every pick. Maybe you’ll decide to fade me. That’s okay, I get it. However, I feel good about this week with a tighter betting card built around efficiency, recent form, and spots where the numbers line up nicely. This includes some parlays of favorites that I’m confident in. Without further rambling, let’s get into my FCS Week 9 picks!
FCS Week 9 Picks And Best Bets
Tennessee Tech at East Tennessee State
East Tennessee State sits at 6-2 overall and 4-0 in the Southern Conference after blanking VMI 38-0 on the road last week. They’re averaging 33.4 points per game while allowing just 21.9. They’ve also won four straight, including a 14-3 defensive stand against Chattanooga and a 35-16 road win at The Citadel. Now they’re at home in Johnson City, where they’ve been solid. Tennessee Tech arrives at 7-1, but still has to prove it can handle a ranked-level opponent on the road.
Tennessee Tech is right there along with East Tennessee State. They put up 33.3 points per game and allow 21.5. Their only loss came on the road to Western Carolina. The Golden Eagles beat Chattanooga earlier this season and just handled The Citadel 28-13. Still, ETSU’s defense has held conference opponents under 20 points recently, and the Bucs convert red-zone trips at a high rate.
East Tennessee owns this series by a slight margin and has been tough to beat at William B. Green Jr. Stadium in SoCon play. Tennessee Tech is good, yet the market giving ETSU plus money at home in a crucial conference matchup feels off. The Bucs control the line of scrimmage well enough, and I expect them to pull this one out.
FCS Week 9 Best Bet: East Tennessee State Moneyline (+106)
Murray State At Illinois State
For the next game on my FCS Week 9 picks, I’m looking at Illinois State as a heavy favorite. Illinois State enters at 6-2 and top-10 after back-to-back wins over Southern Illinois and Indiana State. The Redbirds average strong offensive production and have limited opponents, including a 17-10 home win last week.
Murray State sits at 1-7 and 0-4 in the Missouri Valley. The Racers average under 20 points per game and allow over 35 points per game. They just got blown out 42-0 at South Dakota State and have lost five straight.
Illinois State leads the all-time series 8-1 and has won eight straight. They often score in the 40s, which has me slightly nervous for my pick. At Hancock Stadium, they’ve been reliable. I expect them to hold Murray State to little to no points. The Murray State offense is near the bottom in efficiency.
Illinois State should be able to control the clock with its run game and force Murray State into three-and-outs. The total sits at 55.5, and both teams’ recent games have me wanting to take the under. Illinois State will win comfortably without needing it to be a shootout.
FCS Week 9 Best Bet: Illinois State Moneyline + Under 55.5 (-109)
Harvard (-9.5) At Dartmouth
Harvard remains unbeaten at 6-0 and 3-0 in the Ivy League. The Crimson average 28.5 points per game and allow just 12.8. If you’ve read my articles, you know I’ve been big on them, and this is one team that I have been cashing. They’ve won six straight and just routed Princeton 35-7 last week. Charlie Smith has been efficient under center, and the defense forces low-scoring games week after week.
Dartmouth sits at 3-3 overall and 2-1 in conference play after a couple of recent wins. However, the Big Green allow a lot of points and have been inconsistent. Harvard has been excellent away from Cambridge this season and just handled Cornell 41-29 on the road. Dartmouth’s home field at Memorial Field is respectable, yet the Crimson have the better roster and better form.
A 9.5-point spread is manageable for a team that has controlled the line of scrimmage and limited explosive plays. Harvard should pull away in the second half of this one.
FCS Week 9 Best Bet: Harvard -9.5
Northern Arizona At Southern Utah
For the next game on my FCS Week 9 picks, I’m looking at Northern Arizona on the road against Southern Utah. Northern Arizona sits at 6-2 and ranks seventh after a three-game winning streak that included a 49-44 win over Montana and a 38-25 win over Portland State.
The Lumberjacks have strong offensive production and have been tough in Big Sky play. Southern Utah is 3-5 and 2-3. The Thunderbirds just lost at Idaho and have struggled against better teams, including an earlier loss at Montana.
This is the Grand Canyon Trophy game in Cedar City. NAU has won four straight in the series and leads the all-time mark. The Lumberjacks generate pressure and convert red-zone trips at a high rate, while Southern Utah allows too many points against ranked or higher-end Big Sky opponents.
Northern Arizona’s recent wins came against quality competition, and the Lumberjacks play well enough on the road to handle a middle-of-the-pack Thunderbirds team. The moneyline at -130 is a little juiced. However, as they say on the Nascar Gambling Podcast, you only pay the juice if you lose.
FCS Week 9 Best Bet: Northern Arizona Moneyline (-130)
Moneyline Parlay
This parlay ties three of the stronger spots on the slate together. I’ve already made the case for Northern Arizona. Harvard is another team I made a case for, since I’m taking them to cover the 9.5-point spread as well.
The last game on the parlay card is Montana at Eastern Washington. The 5-3 Grizzlies are heavy favorites against the 2-6 Eagles. Montana averages 37.8 points per game and has the talent to pull away from this struggling EWU defense. However, for this bet, they don’t need to pull away by far. They just need to win.
The Grizzlies need the win as well for playoff positioning, and EWU’s home record on the red turf hasn’t translated into consistent wins. Stacking the three moneylines builds a +178 parlay.
FCS Week 9 Best Bet: Northern AZ ML + Harvard ML + Montana ML (+178)
