Monday Night Football Props + NFL Week 6 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) share their Monday Night Football props for Commanders vs. 49ers and recap NFL Week 6, from the Cardinals beating the Rams on six field goals to J.J. McCarthy‘s wild fourth quarter for the Giants.
Ladders, Locks And Ka’imi Fairbairn Morning
Sean Green rolled into Monday hot. He went 3-1 on his college locks and 2-0 on his NFL locks with the 49ers still pending, cashed the Denver Broncos money line dog and rode a Jahan Dotson ladder to the top rung at 80 yards for +1520. He also grabbed the Packers as a plus 1.5 home dog on Novig. Ryan Kramer had too many sides, saw the warning signs and played them anyway. The props and college bailed him out, including a Malik Nabers ladder that hit the 150-yard top rung at 11-1. Then came the swing of the day, the Tre Tucker bomb that gave the Raiders a walk-off backdoor cover. It moved Sean Green to 2-0 on his biggest plays and pulled Ryan Kramer from 1-6 to 2-5.
Cousin Mush opened the phones after putting his biggest bet of the day on Ka’imi Fairbairn field goals. Fairbairn’s walk-off kick cashed the over 1.5 while Mush was missing a birdie putt on the seventh hole. He also got a stale Patriots line at 6.5 from a Rhode Island book. Then he checked on how Sean Green was holding up. Jalen Hurts is on IR with a blood clot, so the earliest he can return is after the bye, and the Tanner McKee experience misfired all day. The Grandissimo survivor mess, where one entrant claims a proxy never submitted his pick, gets the full story at Circa on Friday.
The Packers Still Own Dallas
Green Bay won 23-13 and covered whether you had the Packers as a one-point favorite, where the show picked them, or at plus 1.5, where Sean Green bet them on Novig. Dak Prescott threw a bunch of interceptions. The flags piled up and the Cowboys looked lost on both sides of the ball. Packers caller Dick Puncher pointed out that Jordan Love threw for 109 yards on the opening drive and kept delivering under pressure despite a pile of drops. Dak was panicking by comparison, and one of his picks only came off the board because of a roughing call the guys hated.
The bigger takeaway is how open the NFC looks. Ryan Kramer noted that the NFC North has four teams above .500 while the rest of the conference has three: the Niners, Panthers and Giants. Then came the stat of the segment. The 5-0 Vikings have scored 109 points in five games, and the 2-4 Eagles have scored 106 in six. Dick Puncher named San Francisco as the team that scares him most. He also warned the Lions to get ready for Josh Jacobs, whose possible suspension is still hanging over Green Bay even after he was cleared to come back.
Jags Flop In London, The Browns Cash Again
The Jaguars were 2.5-point favorites in London and lost outright 34-31 to Houston. Sean Green liked the back-to-back London spot but worried about the offensive line, which kept it out of his locks. And C.J. Stroud shredded a flat Jags team for 312 yards and three touchdowns. Settling for a 59-yard field goal on fourth and four left Houston too much time, and Fairbairn finished it. The Patriots beat the Jets 26-19, but the Jets backdoored a push on the seven. A.J. Brown set a Patriots record for drops and even muffed the onside kick.
Pittsburgh climbed out of a 16-3 hole in Tampa and won 26-19 in overtime. Sean Green cashed his Darnell Washington over 2.5 catches, while the two-touchdown longshot came up one score short. Baltimore was a five-point road favorite when the guys picked it, and Cleveland won outright 13-10 in the classic AFC North home dog spot. A Derrick Henry fumble was probably the difference. Deshaun Watson went 16 of 26 for 164 and didn’t turn it over. Then the Bears carved up Atlanta 31-23 in a game that sat on the lock bubble, and Ryan Kramer cashed his Colston Loveland anytime touchdown.
Survivor Pain, Eagles Misery And J.J. McCarthy
Tennessee beat Indianapolis 26-20, and anyone who lost on the Colts in survivor has a real gripe. Indy led 13-0 in the first half and finished with 10 explosive plays to three and a 43% success rate to Tennessee’s 36%. But Daniel Jones threw two interceptions and the Titans returned a blocked punt for a touchdown. Ryan Kramer also blamed Shane Steichen for a bad game plan without Tyler Warren. Carolina then won 25-14 in Philadelphia after the line climbed to 3.5 on the Hurts news. The Eagles threw 45 times with McKee and never got the run game going against the league’s last-place rush defense.
The Saints won 34-27 as 1.5-point road dogs after the Giants jumped out 10-0. Jameis Winston threw two interceptions and got benched. J.J. McCarthy came in, threw a pick of his own, then caught fire. His 243 fourth-quarter passing yards were the seventh-most in a fourth quarter since 1991, and Ryan Kramer did the full-game math at 1,325 passing yards and 142 rushing. He still called it a coaching loss for Harbaugh, from 10 men on special teams to barely using Cam Skattebo. After a long dodge under questioning, he finally said he wants McCarthy starting, ideally coming off the bye.
Six Field Goals And A Fugazi Chiefs Sweat
Arizona beat the Rams outright without scoring a touchdown. Six field goals did it, while the Rams lost their kicker mid-game and had their punter try the extra point after tying it at 15. That set off a Ryan Kramer rant about why punters and kickers don’t cross-train. The Cardinals pressured Matthew Stafford all day, and he insisted it was not a fluky win. Caller Trevor, who picked the Rams in his own survivor pool, is already feeling good about the Broncos next. The Cardinals have also now knocked out more than 30% of Circa Survivor twice, in week one and this week.
In the Bills’ 33-30 win, the Raiders got the backdoor cover on the late Tre Tucker bomb. That throw also pushed Kirk Cousins over 300 yards, one of the two legs that hit on a three-leg degen parlay from Sean Green. Dalton Kincaid caught seven balls but had a touchdown wiped off the board. The interception race has Justin Herbert at eight, with Sam Darnold and Drake Maye at seven. Kansas City beat the Chargers 22-6 to cash a lock picked at eight and bet at seven. The Chiefs tried hard to blow it with a missed extra point and a missed field goal, but they won yards per play 7.7 to 4.1 and total yards 425 to 259.
Matty J Wants Sirianni Gone
Matty J called in hot. His case is that Nick Sirianni was an offensive coordinator before Philly and still can’t fix the offense. He also argued that A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley and a Super Bowl run are the only reasons Sirianni survived this long. Sean Green agreed Sirianni has coached badly this year, especially lately, but he won’t call for a midseason firing. He points to the resume. The Eagles have never missed the playoffs under Sirianni, went to two Super Bowls and won one, and fans wanted him gone after week five in 2024 before that run. Ryan Kramer kept pressing on the early-season offensive stalls. Even so, there’s no extension coming from this corner.
Dilly Daggers tailed the degen parlay from Ryan Kramer and wanted to know why Bijan Robinson got only nine carries when he turned them into 61 yards. The answer was that the Falcons forgot about a run game that was clearly working, the same complaint the guys had with Baltimore. Dilly then floated Carson Beck for Offensive Rookie of the Year if Arizona trades Jacoby Brissett. Sean Green still sees value at 40-1, because the field is wide open and the award favors quarterbacks. Ty Simpson at 80-1 also got a mention for anyone who thinks the Rams need new blood.
Monday Night Football Props For 49ers Vs. Commanders
Ryan Kramer opens with Rachaad White over 2.5 receptions at +113 on Kalshi. The 49ers have allowed the most running back receptions in the league, and White has posted three, five, six and six catches in four career games against San Francisco. A Niners lead means checkdowns, too. Sean Green went with Austin Ekeler instead, liking his over 1.5 catches before settling on over 4.5 receiving yards, since one grab can get it done. He’d play that number up to eight or nine. With Bill Croskey-Merritt out, he sees White getting most of the snaps and Ekeler handling third downs.
George Kittle over 64.5 receiving yards at -108 on Novig is the anchor. Washington has been awful against tight ends. Dallas Goedert went 4 for 77 with two scores, Jake Ferguson scored twice, and Isaiah Likely caught 11 for 94. Kittle has also topped 70 yards in all three home games. Seven tight end touchdowns allowed is why Sean Green plays Kittle anytime at +110, with Novig the best price on his screen at +113. Both hosts like Brock Purdy over 249.5 passing yards, because Washington allows 266 passing yards a game, 28th in the league.
The first touchdown cards overlap. Ryan Kramer took Jayden Daniels and Purdy at 20-1 each, Luke Farrell at 45-1 and Kittle at +850. The other card has Ekeler at 19-1, Purdy at 20-1 and Farrell at 45-1. The degen parlay from Sean Green pairs Ekeler and Farrell anytime touchdowns with the 49ers winning by 7.5, priced at 100-1 on Novig. The Kalshi combo starts with White five catches and Kittle 70 receiving yards. Add two Kittle touchdowns and it pays 78-1. So the bet gets split with a one-touchdown version at 26-1, just in case.
Watch: Scott Hanson and Fernando Mendoza are the same person 🤣
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:47 Ladders, Locks & Fairbairn
3:48 Cousin Mush: Fairbairn, Hurts & GrandiSimo
13:06 Dick Puncher on Packers, Cowboys & Josh Jacobs
22:32 Jags, Patriots, Steelers, Browns & Bears
32:23 Bears, Falcons & Caleb Williams
34:51 Bears Super Fan on the Line
42:55 Jordan Love Rushing Yards
45:04 Titans, Colts & Daniel Jones Turnovers
48:15 Panthers, Eagles & Tanner McKee
51:23 Saints, Giants & J.J. McCarthy
56:24 Cardinals, Rams & the Punter Extra Point
1:00:35 Raiders Backdoor Cover, Bills Win & Interception Race
1:03:24 Cardinals Fan Trevor on the Line
1:08:13 Chiefs and Chargers Cover
1:10:41 Matty J and Nick Sirianni Firing
1:24:22 Dilly Daggers, Bijan & Offensive Rookie of the Year
1:30:30 Rashad White Receptions
1:32:14 Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards
1:34:57 George Kittle Receiving Yards
1:36:48 Brock Purdy Passing Yards
1:38:16 First Touchdown Card
1:39:13 Ekeler, Farrell and 49ers Win Parlay
1:40:10 Rashod White Five Catches Kittle Combo
1:41:40 NBA Tipping Off and Division Winners
1:45:56 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
