What a fun College Football season it’s been in 2026! Upsets left and right, close down to the wire shootouts every week. Rivalry games have been off the charts. A nice cool spell is sweeping the country this weekend, and it really feels like football weather. Let’s dive into The Upset Factory and build our College Football upset parlay for Week 7.
Last week, North Carolina came in clutch, taking down Pitt for us. Nebraska led almost the entire game against #7-ranked Indiana, and our moneyline dog was looking great. Unfortunately, in true Husker fashion, they blew it late and let the Hoosiers take home the win. West Virginia hung around with Arizona early, but didn’t have enough juice in the second half.
Michigan State (+250)
Let’s kick things off in the Big Ten. Pat Fitzgerald welcomes Northwestern to Lansing. Northwestern was the school Fitzgerald played for, coached for, and signed a 10-year contract with just five years ago. He was fired after a hazing scandal and subsequently sued the school. The lawsuit was settled, and while the terms weren’t disclosed, Fitzgerald said he felt “vindicated.”
Now, Pat Fitzgerald gets the chance to get revenge on the field against his former team and former assistant, now Wildcat head coach David Braun. For the Spartans, it’s also a revenge spot against former Spartan quarterback Aidan Chiles. On the field, keeping Chiles contained will be the biggest key to keeping Michigan State in this game. Northwestern has been on fire, but this is the game for Fitzgerald to rally the troops at home. This game just has one of those feelings. Give me the big dogs in Sparty.
North Carolina (+130)
I’d feel bad about continuing to go with the North Carolina Tar Heels in this article. But they just keep cashing for us as underdogs. In Bill Belichick, we trust. He takes his ferocious defense down Tobacco Road to face their arch rivals, the Duke Blue Devils. With the Victory Bell on the line, these two rivals will “Duke” it out. We’ve seen repeated upsets and close games between rivals all season long, and you know these two teams will give it their all. North Carolina beat TCU to cash a moneyline dog for us. They hung with Notre Dame a few weeks back. Then, last week they cashed as a Moneyline dog once again, taking down the Pitt Panthers. Yet, they can’t get much respect. Once again, underdogs at Wallace Wade Stadium.
Duke has been impressive, but fell to Georgia Tech last week for their first loss of the year. Belichick has been a mastermind at controlling the game this year. Not dissimilar to his time in the NFL. Control the clock, and slow the game down. That’ll need to be what they do this week. It starts with containing Blue Devil running back Nate Sheppard. If North Carolina’s stout defense can slow him down, the Tar Heels will yet again be a live on the moneyline.
Kentucky (+210)
The Kentucky Wildcats head to Norman, Oklahoma. Where the Sooners are feeling pretty “Boomer” after a massive upset in the Red River Rivalry over then #1 Texas. But Kentucky is coming in with a powerful win momentum of their own. The Wildcats survived at home last week against #10 LSU in a wild overtime win. Kentucky was impressive across all elements of their game last week. They had explosive plays on offense and special teams. Their defense came up big as well. After struggling with Alabama, the Wildcats have come up big. They took down Texas A&M at Kyle Field, and then South Carolina on the road as well. Topping it off with the big win over the Tigers last week was the cherry on top of how good this team is.
For the Sooners, yes, it was a massive win, in a rivalry spot as we talked about above. But that sets them up for a massive letdown spot here. We’ve seen them lose to a Michigan team that isn’t that good. New Mexico had them on the ropes at Memorial Stadium, where the Sooners escaped with a 14-6 victory. They were blown out by Georgia, and yes, recovered for last week’s big win. But this is a huge letdown spot, and let’s face it. Kentucky is the real deal this season.
Michigan State + North Carolina + Kentucky Parlay = +2557
