New England looks unbettable after getting blown out in Week 3, and that is the reason Ryan Kramer and Sean Green are both on the Patriots. Nobody wants them, which makes them a close-your-eyes special in SGP terms. The Patriots visit the Bills in Orchard Park, NY on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET, and the Bills were 6.5-point favorites with a total of 48.5 when the guys taped on September 30. The full segment is from NFL Picks Week 4 (Ep. 2695).
Patriots vs Bills Odds
The Bills were 6.5-point favorites over the Patriots, with a total of 48.5, when the guys taped on September 30.
Our Picks
- Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric): Patriots +6.5
- Sean Green (@SeanTGreen): Patriots +6.5
Ryan opened with the ugly part. The Patriots missed the spread by 21 in Week 3 and are on the road for the second week in a row, and he called this team unbettable before arguing that’s the whole appeal. Why is Buffalo laying only 6.5 if everything points its way? Sean’s answer was that the books want you on the Bills. Ryan came back to the same question later and noted the bets are pouring in on Buffalo anyway. To both of them, that’s where the value sits.
Then Sean went to the trends. Buffalo is 3-0 straight up and against the spread, including what he called a fugazi cover against the Chargers, and he said teams that start 3-0 against the spread have been a poor bet to cover in Week 4 over the last 10 years. On the New England side he cited Vrabel at 28-14 against the spread as an underdog of three points or more after a loss. Ryan added that Buffalo hasn’t covered this number at home against New England since a Week 18 game in 2022.
Neither host pretended the Patriots are healthy. Ryan’s bigger worry is the defensive front: if Barmore can’t play through a shoulder injury, he thinks Buffalo could hand the ball to James Cook all day and keep Josh Allen from taking a beating. He also pointed to a journeyman lineman landing on IR and called the offensive line “in shambles.” Sean countered that New England can slow Cook down, and that doing so is the key to the whole Bills offense.
Sean’s closing pitch was two angles stacked, the close-your-eyes special and Vrabel off a loss, and Ryan said there was never a chance they ended up on Buffalo. He did admit he expected the Bills to be laying more. Strangely, the smaller number makes him more confident.
Hear the full breakdown on the NFL Picks Week 4 episode, or listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Watch every game on YouTube, and download the SGPN app at sg.pn/links. See all our NFL Picks.
