Tampa is turning to a backup quarterback and drawing a bad Green Bay offensive line, and that was enough for Sean Green and Ryan Kramer to take the points with a team neither of them enjoys betting. The Packers visit the Buccaneers on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Tampa, FL, and Green Bay was a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 40 when the guys taped on September 30. Both of them talk their way onto Tampa on the NFL Picks Week 4 episode.
Packers vs Buccaneers Odds
The Packers were 3.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers, with a total of 40, when the guys taped on September 30.
Our Picks
- Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric): Buccaneers +3.5
- Sean Green (@SeanTGreen): Buccaneers +3.5
Ryan doesn’t love the Bucs, and said so. He said they’re close to drawing dead and figured that’s exactly why the number is three and a half, then admitted he still found it very hard not to take them. His case lives on the line of scrimmage. He thinks the Packers’ offensive line has been bad enough for Tampa’s front to get something going, he noted Green Bay has injuries on both lines, and the Bucs are still stopping the run. He also held up what the Falcons did to Green Bay the week before as the blueprint: hit them on the ground and mix in basic play action.
Ryan’s second reason is the quarterback change, and Ryan called it the backup quarterback bump. The backup flashed in the preseason, and Ryan was willing to throw out the couple of throws he made the week before, since he hadn’t had a full week of work with the first team. Ryan remembers him as a college passer who loved the high-arching deep ball, and he thinks the mobility can speed up the tempo of an ordinary handoff game. He liked the idea of more Ted Hurst, too, who he said had a good connection with the backup in camp. His last word was that you bet your ass he’s taking the backup to win this game.
Sean gave Green Bay its due first: extra rest and a back-against-the-wall spot make the Packers’ case easy to state. He just thought the Bucs fit the desperation angle better, and he cited trends on 0-3, 0-3 ATS teams that get stronger against a one-win opponent like the Packers. Then came the number he called crazy. By his count the Packers are dead last in rushing at 48.7 yards per game, and the second-worst team is at 81. Sean said you can’t trust that offensive line as a road favorite, called Tampa’s 0-12 run against the spread the longest such stretch in NFL history and said the Bucs are overdue for a cover. He figured the Packers’ defense won’t know how to play the backup. “You can’t lay three and a half for the Packers,” he said, and that was that.
The YouTube chat earned a shout-out as well. Alan pointed out the Packers lead the league in penalty yards, which Sean read as the sign of an incredibly sloppy team. Sean also floated a first-touchdown look, if he plays, at the target who caught the backup’s only touchdown pass of the preseason, and before they moved on he asked for “Kramer hates the chat” shirts.
Hear the full breakdown on the NFL Picks Week 4 episode, or listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Watch every game on YouTube, and download the SGPN app at sg.pn/links. See all our NFL Picks.
