Here at SGPN, we’re looking for every angle when it comes to betting on the NFL. That includes not just players or coaches, but the officials as well. In any sport, and the NFL is no exception, officiating can make a huge impact on the outcome of a game or bet. Let’s take a look at how NFL officials impact betting in Week 3 by zeroing in on a few referees, their tendencies, and how it might affect some bets.
Alex Kemp: Patriots at Jaguars
Cam Little 2+ Field Goals (-124)
Alex Kemp and his crew love to call facemask penalties more than any other crew. At 12.8 flags per game, they are only 4% above league average. Yet, they come in at 48% above the rest of the league when it comes to facemask penalties. Unfortunately for the New England Patriots, no team was flagged more in 2025 for the penalty than the Patriots, who were called for a facemask violation seven times.
Referee Alex Kemp is talking to America now.
https://t.co/yrBlYS9j9f— Fᴏᴏᴛʙᴀʟʟ Zᴇʙʀᴀs (@footballzebras) September 17, 2023
This should already be a defensive battle where the offenses don’t make a lot of progress. Toss in just one facemask penalty in the game that pushes Jacksonville into field goal range, which Cam Little has a big range. That could be all the difference in this prop. It’ll move the Jaguars into scoring range, the defense steps up, and they kick a field goal, which I already expect them to do plenty of.
Clete Blakeman: Chargers at Bills
Game Total Over 50.5 (+108)
Clete Blakeman is a former College Football quarterback for the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Now, he spends his time in the NFL protecting the quarterbacks and, mostly, their pass catchers. Blakeman and crew average 12.7 flags per game. They are well above league average when it comes to illegal contact downfield, at a rate 49% higher than their counterparts.
Super Bowl ‘hot ref’ Clete Blakeman is heartthrob of big game https://t.co/OTnDwK7uhq https://t.co/fJNhBAas85
— Sporting News NFL (@sn_nfl) February 8, 2016
Josh Allen or Justin Herbert is driving down the field, and the drive stalls out on third down. But wait: “Flag on the play.” The first down is awarded, and the drive continues. Blakeman’s style leads to drive-extending penalties like that, leading to longer drives and a higher shot at scoring points. This one is already due to be a shootout anyways.
Shawn Hochuli: Eagles at Bears
Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 (+100)
We’ll wrap things up on Monday Night Football at Soldier Field. Shawn Hochuli’s crew is already one of the more flag-happy crews out there. They average about 8% more flags per game than their counterparts. On top of that, roughing the passer is their second most-called penalty, only to defensive encroachment. Both are called at a rate 44% more often than the average. Hochuli isn’t a fan of undisciplined defensive play. The Chicago Bears led the NFL in roughing the passer calls in 2025, almost doubling the Cincinnati Bengals, who checked in next on the list.
Philadelphia has a mobile quarterback who tends to hang on to the ball and try to extend the play. That can easily lead to more roughing the passer calls and extend the drives. Don’t overlook the encroachment call rate either. This Bears defense has to be aggressive; they’ll either have Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum starting on offense. A couple of drive-extending penalties could really help Philadelphia cover this game. The Eagles are 6-0 with Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni in games officiated by Shawn Hochuli.
