There are weeks when the betting board speaks to you.
And then there are weeks when you stare at it long enough that Bears +4.5 with a backup quarterback starts making sense.
Welcome to Week 3.
Smalls and Producer Ryan McKee went through the Sunday slate, player props and Circa Millions board before eventually locking in five ATS picks: Kansas City -11.5, Cincinnati -3.5, Arizona +8.5, Las Vegas +3 and Chicago +4.5.
Some came easier than others.
Kansas City made the card because the Chiefs suddenly look like the Chiefs again, only now they also have a running game. Cincinnati got the nod because Pittsburgh’s offense has spent the first two weeks looking like it accidentally wandered onto an NFL field. Arizona +8.5 earned a spot after Ryan found enough trends and expert support to temporarily forget he is emotionally compromised by being a Cardinals fan.
Then things got uglier.
Raiders +3 made the cut against New Orleans. And finally, Chicago +4.5 landed on the card after Ryan went searching for actual data behind the old gambling instinct that backup quarterbacks can be sneaky good ATS in their first start of the season. Somehow, the numbers did not tell him to stop.
The player prop portion of the show had considerably less emotional damage.
Ryan’s favorite prop was Adonai Mitchell over his receiving yardage against Detroit, while Smalls and Ryan also got into Garrett Wilson longest reception, Darius Slayton, Jalen Coker receptions, Quinshon Judkins rushing attempts, Dalton Kincaid and Rashid Shaheed.
There was also Chuba Hubbard first touchdown, which comes with one of the stranger early-season stats: Hubbard scored the first touchdown of the entire early Sunday slate in both Week 1 and Week 2. Naturally, Ryan decided the only reasonable response was to ask him to do it a third time.
Elsewhere, the guys debate whether Bills-Chargers is a trap, whether anyone should trust Miami, and whether the phrase “shut your eyes and bet it” should legally qualify as handicapping methodology.
Probably not.
But the picks are in.
Rate and review the show, and send your questions to SpeakPipe.com/StephieSmalls.
