We’ve got a game of the year candidate early on in the College Football season in Austin, Texas this week. With College Gameday in attendance, the #1 Ohio State Buckeyes, led by Julian Sayin, will take on Arch Manning and his Texas Longhorns. Two juggernauts of College Football, two Heisman hopefuls, and two fan bases with National Championship dreams. We’re in for a thriller Saturday night at Darrell K. Royal Stadium. Let’s jump in and look at the Ohio State vs. Texas pick, predictions, and best bets.
How To Watch Ohio State vs Texas
Location: Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas
Date: Saturday, September 12th, 2026
Stream: ABC
Time: 7:30 PM ET, 4:30 PM PT
Spread: Texas -1.5 (-108), Ohio State +1.5 (-108)
Total: Over 49.5 (-110), Under 49.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Texas -120, Ohio State +104
Ohio State vs Texas Picks, Prediction, Best Bets, and Preview:
Last year these teams faced off at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, and it was an absolute defensive slugfest. It was 0-0 at halftime, before the Buckeyes punched it in for the first time in the third quarter. Ultimately, Ohio State took the game 14-7 in Julian Sayin’s first career start.
Sayin was held to just 126 passing yards and one touchdown for the Buckeyes. On the other side, Texas quarterback Arch Manning was also held in check, throwing for just 170 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
How Texas Covers -1.5
Arch Manning. The young quarterback with the big name could easily be the biggest case for Texas to win this game. With a full year under his belt as the starter, he looked better as the season went on, eventually leading the country over the final five games of the season in QBR (87.9). Ohio State’s defense lost seven starters to the NFL. While they have plenty of talent, it’s not the same defense they saw last season.
Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo are an explosive receiver threat on the outside for Texas. Arch can work the ball to them, and if Ohio State overcommits, it’ll open up the inside of the field for him to work. Arch’s legs could also be important in this game. If he can extend the plays like a star quarterback should, it’ll keep them in this game. The final key to the Longhorns winning this game, home field advantage. Their stadium will be rocking on Saturday night; that could be all the difference in winning this game.
How Ohio State Covers +1.5
Similarly to Texas’ case to win Saturday, the quarterback has the chance to be the biggest difference. The Buckeyes have a superstar in the making in Julian Sayin. Sayin is far from the quarterback he was against Texas in his first career start last year. He finished 2025 with the highest overall PFF grade among FBS quarterbacks (92.9) and the highest passing grade (92.5).
Jeremiah Smith is a game-changing player. One of the most talented wide receivers to ever take the field in a Buckeye jersey, which is saying something. Texas has held him in check both times they’ve faced him, but it won’t be an easy task Saturday night. Ohio State has incredible depth and talent. Their defense might have lost a lot of star players, but they reloaded just as fast. Ohio State has arguably the most talented roster in the nation, and they are led by a couple of superstars.
Over 49.5: Ohio State vs Texas Picks
Only 21 points were scored in last year’s matchup, but as we’ve covered so much has changed for these teams since that August 2025 matchup. Arch Manning has progressed greatly; Julian Sayin has progressed greatly. Both teams are loaded with offensive superstars. Get the popcorn out, grab your favorite beverage, and settle in for fireworks on a Saturday night.
Julian Sayin Over 249.5 Passing Yards (+100)
I fully expect a massive game from Julian Sayin Saturday night. If he isn’t a household name yet, he will be after this game. Last year, this game was Sayin’s first career start. It could have gone a lot better than it did. He was held to just 13-20 passing for 126 yards. But he’s grown so much over the last year since that game.
He comes into the matchup as an established starter who threw for 3,610 yards and 32 TDs in 2025. Completing 77% of his passes. He averaged 257.9 passing yards per game last season. Sayin had no problem passing for over 250 yards against tough defenses last year. In the CFB Playoff game against the Miami Hurricanes, the Big Ten Championship game against Indiana, and in four other Big Ten games. The Heisman candidacy starts now for Sayin.
Game Pick: Ohio State Moneyline (+104)
It’s going to be a tough environment, and this game won’t be handed to them. But Julian Sayin makes all the difference for me in this one. Ohio State’s talent, coaching, and winning tradition win out. The Buckeyes win this one and cement their status as the #1 team in the nation.
