Well I’ll go the foot of our stairs, the new NFL Season gets underway this week. I added it to my (long) list of favourite sports to bet on years ago, but plenty of my friends tell me that they don’t bet on it simply because they don’t understand what they’re betting on. It might not be 4 pints of stout before the rugger. It’s not the full English before a Sunday morning division 4 match on a manky pitch. And it’s not even Tuesday night darts league followed by a lamb rogan josh. However, I’m here to tell you it couldn’t be easier, and pound for pound it’s a great value and fun place to get involved. I love it, and it absolutely gives the vibes of a proper session that you’d associate with the Saturday 3 o’clocks. All of our NFL shows and picks can be found on the Sports Gambling Podcast.
When are the matches?
There are a few stand-alone games, Thursday and Monday night football, which aren’t UK-friendly, but the main long list sets up perfectly. If we use this season’s NFL Week 1 fixtures as an example, the Sunday evening slate is a punter’s dream set-up. There are 8 games at 6 pm, and 4 more at 925pm. They last about 3 hours, so you can count your winnings and be in bed for midnight.
You can find TV coverage in all kinds of places, Channel 5 and Sky both have live games this season. However, the key to getting the best value out of your NFL bets is the Redzone show. Think old-school Soccer Saturday, goals as they go in, drama as it happens, ticking off your winners on the pub table on your 9-team acca.
American Football seems almost designed for this type of coverage. Due to the stop/start nature of the sport, the coverage can cut to whichever game is closest to a score. You’ll see all of the touchdowns.
The Main Markets
American Football is effectively a two outcome sport. There are very occasional ties, but they are incredibly rare. If a game finishes level, it’s almost always settled in overtime, and your standard bets will carry over into the extra-time period.
You can pick a side, who’s going to win? Standard. There isn’t the big disparity of prices you’d find in, for example, a Premier League weekend. If we take NFL Week 1, the shortest favourites are the LA Chargers at ⅕, with the Arizona Cardinals at 4/1 on the other side. But this is the outlier, there’s only 4 other games of the 16 with a favourite shorter than ½ and the underdog at bigger than 2/1. So there’s nothing wrong with playing outright winners, but the chaos is unlocked in other markets.
If you want the full legit, morbidly obese rooting-tooting American experience, there are 2 markets that you will live and die in.
The Spread
The bookies give the underdogs a headstart, can they hang on to that, or will the favourites overhaul them?
NFL Week 1 sees the Cincinnati Bengals at ½ to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers outright, who are 17/10 to triumph. The spread is 3.5 points, and you can bet either side at 9/10. So whatever the final score is, you need to adjust it by that number to get your winner. Cincinnati has to win by 4 to win that bet. (The bet you want to place, therefore, is Cincinnati -3.5). Tampa Bay can win the game, or lose by up to 3 to cash that side (that bet is Tampa Bay +3.5).
The biggest spread on the Week 1 card is in the previously mentioned Chargers-Cardinals game. The spread there is 10.5, so if you think the underdog Cardinals can keep it close, take them +10.5, if you think the Chargers will overpower them and run away with it, take them -10.5.
11 of the 16 games in Week 1 have spreads of 5 points or less, so you can see how tight it is, and where the skill is (and luck) in picking a winning bet. You can roll these bets up into whatever sized acca you like, knock yourself out.
Totals
How many points will there be in the game? The books set a game total, you bet the over or under. Simple as peas.
The smallest total on the Week 1 slate is the Jets v Titans, which is set at 39.5. The biggest of the week is 50.5 in the Buccaneers v Bengals. (The reason the half points exist is to eliminate the tie, making it a 2 way bet. It’s going over, or it’s going under)
So how do you arrive at your preferred bet? The main things to consider is how the styles of the 2 teams match against each other. It’s very much in the vein of how differing styles make a boxing match. One team doing all of the scoring is rare. If you’re taking the over on a total you’ll most likely need the underdog team to join in scoring points. Two high-scoring offenses against two weak defenses? Take the over. Is the quarterback in form? Are the wide receivers likely to burn past the oppo? Will the running back tear them asunder? These are all pointers to a higher-scoring game.
Conversely, although it’s not quite as much fun, you’re very welcome to take the under. If you’ve caught rumour of an injured quarterback, an impending snowstorm, or if you just think that the defences will have the upper hand, go under the total.
Player Props
Now you’ve got your seven-leg handicap acca placed, and a cheeky Lucky 15 on 4 overs, we can get on to the advanced stuff.
Player Props are the way to press your skill in reading the game. It’s your weekend soccer First Goalscorer, Yellow Card, Goalkeeper Saves, over 11.5 corners bet. And the possibilities are endless.
The obvious one is touchdown scorers. If you fancy a high-scoring game, take the star receiver or running back to score. An average NFL game has 5 or 6 touchdowns, so the odds are slightly shorter than a goalscorer market. You can take 1st touchdown scorer or anytime scorer.
Player Props Overs/Unders
All of the ‘skill positions’ in American Football have over/under lines on their performance. Looking again at the Bengals v Buccaneers game, let’s start with the quarterbacks.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow can be backed at ⅖ to throw 2 or more touchdown passes, or 17/10 to throw 3 or more. His predicted passing yards are 271.5, again with over or under as the betting options.
As you get into the rhythm of watching the games and making bets, you’ll form an opinion on if you like a player to achieve these milestones in a game.
Running backs and wide receivers are the other main attacking players, and their markets are largely based on the over/under model. Teams can be vulnerable against their opponents running the ball, so you might want to take a running back total. Similarly, you might fancy a quarterback to throw the ball around and want to bet on a receiver to rack up his catch total or receiving yards.
Bet Building
NFL is the absolute GOAT if you like a bet builder from markets in the same game. Assuming you’ve bet other sports before, the potential for cobbling bets together is obvious.
If you think a game is going to be high-scoring, the related contingencies are there for all to see. We’re going over the points, both QB’s to reach their yard totals, the star men to find the end zone (that’s the big long goal), the in-form receiver to snag 8 catches. Build it up and tick them off as they hit.
So, next Sunday night I’ll be putting together something like this in the Bengals v. Bucs game, it pays 7/2 :-
Bengals -3.5 points
Joe Burrow +271.5 passing yards
Ja’Maar Chase Anytime Touchdown Scorer
These 3 props are all kind of related; we’re looking for a good Bengals win, with quarterback Burrow and star receiver Chase being able to pass the ball frequently and score a touchdown.
Miscellaneous Shenanigans
Once you get comfortable, you can get stuck into more bits and bobs. There are kicker props in markets like total field goals or longest field goals. Defensive player props are popular too ,a player to make a certain amount of sacks or tackles or interceptions. And TONS of other stuff.
The more you watch, the more you’ll understand and start finding value in the plethora of available markets.
So, Sunday at 6 pm, get your trotters up and your accas on, and head off to bed at midnight having enjoyed the fun sweat of winning and losing on the NFL. Come and talk to me when you’ve lost a QB rushing prop on a victory formation knee, I’ll be proud.
