Football contest season is here, which means thousands of people are about to spend the next four months convincing themselves that a six-point favorite is “basically free money.”
On this episode of The Stephie Smalls Show, Smalls gets contest strategy from two people who have seen just about every possible way these things can go right or horribly, horribly wrong.
First up is Brady Kannon of SportsLine and CBS Sports, a former SuperContest champion who has been competing in football contests for more than two decades. Kannon breaks down his approach to season-long picks contests, including why he avoids locking in selections too early, when he believes NFL data starts becoming truly useful and why simply following the most popular picks every week makes it difficult to separate yourself from the field.
His biggest theme: find smart opportunities to zig when everyone else zags. In a normal bet, you’re trying to beat the sportsbook. In a contest, you’re also trying to beat thousands of other people making many of the same decisions. Sometimes the most valuable winner is the one almost nobody else has.
Then Vegas Matty from FootballContest.com joins Smalls to talk survivor pools, multiple entries and the difference between skill and plain old football chaos. He explains why putting every survivor entry on the same “safe” team can wipe out an entire season in one afternoon, and shares stories of contestants doing exactly that.
Matty also compares survivor contests with season-long pick’em formats, where one terrible week hurts but doesn’t necessarily end your season. His advice after a bad stretch is simple: don’t panic and completely abandon the process that got you into the contest in the first place.
The conversation was recorded in person during Circa Ultimate Contest Weekend in Las Vegas, but the strategy applies whether you’re playing for millions, entering an online contest or desperately trying to defeat Steve from Accounting in the office survivor pool.
Listen to the full episode for picks strategy, survivor planning, contrarian plays, multiple-entry tactics, backup quarterback chaos and plenty more.
