Games that are scheduled for early kickoff times tend to get a bit more attention on Saturdays. These are the games that often get the most hype on the pre-game shows and can feature some of the biggest matchups of the day. Have you ever wondered if there are teams that start early that you need to fade or ride? We’ve gone through the data and found a few trends for games that kick off at 1 PM EST / 12 PM CST or earlier that you’ll want to know before the season gears up. Let’s get into it.
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College Football 2026: How do teams perform ATS in games with an early kickoff?
What do the numbers say about college football teams with games that start early?
Over the past three seasons, FBS teams playing in games with early kickoffs at 1 PM EST / 12 PM CST or earlier have slightly favored home teams against the spread. There haven’t been any obvious ‘system plays’ for home or road teams in the early window. At least, none that would be reliably profitable. However, there were betting edges in specific splits that you’ll want to factor into a handicap. Key details on home / away splits are as follows:
- Over the past three years, home favorites have covered at a 52.1% rate against the spread. This isn’t a strong enough trend to make it a system play, but it’s an angle that should factor into your handicap.
- Large home favorites, meaning teams favored by 14 points or more, have only covered against the spread in 49.2% of games. Again, this isn’t nearly strong enough for a system play, but fading large spreads in early kickoffs should be a factor in your handicap.
- Short home underdogs, meaning a spread of 1-to-7 points, have covered in 54.1% of games over the past three years. Lines like this shouldn’t be bet blindly, but should be heavily factored into a handicap.
- Heavy road favorites only covered in 46.5% of games played with an early kickoff over the past three seasons. A heavy favorite in this case is 10.5 points or larger. Again, this shouldn’t be a system play, but it should heavily weigh into your overall handicap.
Which college football teams have covered the most in games with an early kickoff?
You’re not going to believe this, but Big Ten powerhouses have been reliable in the early window. Also, West Coast teams have been the most fadeable in early games. Trends to know include:
- Michigan
Over the past three seasons, the Wolverines have been among the best performers in the early window. Michigan is 18-2 straight up in games with an early kickoff, and 13-7 against the spread. The Wolverines are often at home in early games, and they’re often a favorite. Michigan played five games in the early window and went 4-1 straight up, but only 2-3 ATS. The Wolverines only get two games that kick off at 1 PM EST / 12 PM CST or earlier this year. They’ve at home against Oklahoma early in the year, and at Ohio State to end the year. They failed to cover against both of these teams last year. This may not be a trend worth following for the upcoming season. - Ohio State
Ohio State is 20-1 straight up and 13-8 ATS in games that kick off before 1 PM EST / 12 PM CST. The Buckeyes were 5-0 straight up and ATS in early kickoff games last year. They only have two games scheduled for the early window right now for the upcoming season. Ohio State will travel to Texas in Week 1 and end the year at home against Michigan. This was an unbelievably strong trend last year, and it could be the same this year. Ride Ohio State until the trend breaks. - Iowa
The Hawkeyes have gone 12-5 straight up and 11-6 ATS in games that kick off before 1 PM EST / 12 PM CST over the last three seasons. Iowa played only two regular-season games that started in the early window. The Hawkeyes went 1-1 straight up, but 2-0 ATS. They only have one game currently scheduled for an early kickoff for the upcoming season, but that could change. Iowa ends the year with Nebraska coming to Iowa City. The Hawkeyes won and covered against Nebraska in the final game of their regular season last year. Look for the trend to hold with this game.
Which college football teams have been the easiest to fade with an early kickoff?
Warm weather and West Coast teams dominated the list of teams that struggle in the early window. The trends for teams that can’t handle the early start are as follows:
- USC
The Trojans are 3-3 straight up, but only 1-5 ATS in games with a 1 PM EST / 12 PM CST kickoff or earlier over the last three seasons. USC lost outright as a road favorite against Illinois last year in their only early kickoff. The Trojans don’t have any games with an early kickoff on the schedule for 2026-27 right now. They could have games flexed into this spot, but we might not have to factor early kickoffs for USC into a handicap for this year. - LSU
The Tigers are 4-3 straight up, but 2-5 ATS in games with a kickoff at 1 PM EST / 12 PM CST or earlier over the past three years. LSU played twice in the early window last year. They went 1-1 straight up, but failed to cover in both games. The Tigers have only one game with an early kickoff scheduled for 2026-27. They travel to Auburn in Week 8. Auburn could be a home underdog here. This could be another opportunity to fade LSU against the spread. Circle this one. - Maryland
The Terrapins are 5-7 straight up and 3-9 ATS in games with a kickoff at 1 PM EST / 12 PM CST or earlier over the past three years. Last year actually broke a trend for the Terrapins that was much worse. They went 3-0 straight up and 2-1 ATS in the early window last year. Their only miss ATS was as a massive favorite against Towson early in the year. They don’t have any early games currently scheduled, but they may get flexed into a couple. Keep an eye on the Terps schedule for trends. Based on their history, Maryland is unlikely to repeat their 2025-26 performance in early games.
The College Football Experience
For more analysis of every college football game in the 2026-26 season, tune in to The College Football Experience. Colby Dant and Moneyline Mac talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college football picks every week!
