Bye weeks in college football aren’t discussed as much as they are in the NFL. A professional team coming off a bye? Look to ride them with the extra rest and extra preparation. But what about college football bye weeks? Are there trends worth following and angles worth playing? We’ve gone through the numbers and found a few different ways you’ll want to look at bye weeks this year. Let’s get into it.
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College Football 2026: Do bye weeks matter when handicapping college football?
What do the numbers say about FBS teams coming off a bye week over the last three years?
We looked at a few different scenarios over the past three seasons. The situations and raw numbers are as follows:
- Teams with a rest advantage, meaning a team off a bye week against a team without a bye week, result in a 51.9% winning percentage ATS for the team with a bye.
The oddsmakers have this one completely sniffed out. It’s not a profitable system to play blind on either side. Teams off the bye week usually have an extra 1-to-2.5 points baked into the spread. - Unranked road underdogs off a bye week covered at a 54.6% rate over the past three years.
This is a playable angle. The extra week of rest and preparation for the hostile environment makes a difference here. Also, the public tends to love home favorites in college football. This is a trend worth remembering for the upcoming year. - Ranked favorites of 13.5 points or more and off a bye week have covered at a 47.2% rate over the past three seasons.
The market clearly overinflates the line. A week of rest for a favorite could result in the team starting slower and having to shake off a little rust. This isn’t a system play, but it’s worth keeping an eye on for juicy situations.
Which teams should I look to ride or fade coming off a college football bye week?
There are a few trends worth keeping an eye on when it comes to college football bye weeks, but what about teams? Are there specific teams over the last three seasons that have shown tendencies off bye weeks over the past few seasons. The teams and their trend include:
- Service Academies are a combined 40.9% against the spread off bye weeks over the past three seasons.
The team at SGPN will always support the troops, but it’s okay to stay away or fade them in football off a bye week. Oddsmakers routinely over-adjust spreads upward for disciplined academy teams with extra days of preparation. This is an angle that could be run as a system play until it breaks. - Kalen DeBoer is 10-1 straight up and 8-3 ATS for his career as a head coach off a bye week.
Coach DeBoer has performed well off a bye week at every stop in his career. He’s an elite offensive tactician and clearly uses the extra time to get his team ready for his opponent. Alabama only has one bye week during this college football season. It comes in Week Nine. The Crimson Tide heads to LSU in Week 10. Have that one circled as a spot to ride with Alabama despite the tough environment. - James Franklin was 5-8-1 ATS at Penn State as the head coach when coming off a bye week
Franklin’s teams were used to being heavy favorites that definitely suffered from a ‘rest tax’. Penn State was also known as a conservative offense, and the Nittany Lions tended to struggle early. Franklin is at Virginia Tech now. The Hokies get a bye week in Week Nine, and head to SMU in Week 10. Virginia Tech will likely come in as an underdog, but they may get a shorter number than they should with the extra rest. Plan accordingly.
Which college football coaches are the best off a bye week in their career
Believe it or not, but Kalen DeBoer does not have the best ATS record when off a bye week in the country. The best coach off a bye against the spread over the last three years is none other than Pittsburgh’s Pat Narduzzi. Coach Narduzzi is 10-2 against the spread off a bye week during his time with the Panthers. Narduzzi’s teams are known for aggression on the defensive side, and the extra rest has allowed his teams to come in better prepared off a bye week. His team gets a bye in Week 10 and faces Florida State in Pittsburgh in Week 11.
Additional head coaches that have shown a trend you’ll want to ride with when it comes to bye weeks in college football are as follows:
- Bret Bielema
Bielema is 13-4 ATS when coming off a bye week in his career. He’s also 5-1 straight up and 5-1 against the spread when coming off a bye with Illinois. Coach Bielema is known for a run-heavy approach that gets a benefit when linemen and backs are able to get a week off. The Illini get Oregon coming to Champaign, IL after a bye week this year. Circle that game. - Dave Doeren
Doeren is 11-4 ATS off a bye week as a head coach with NC State. His offenses are known for discipline and mitigating turnovers. It’s no surprise that he benefits from the extra time to prepare. The Wolfpack gets a bye week before they head to Stanford this year. NC State could absolutely roll against the Cardinal. - Jim Mora, Jr.
Mora is 7-3 ATS when coming off a bye week as a head coach. He’s also known for a run-heavy approach that benefits from extra rest in the trenches and in the backfield. UConn gets a bye week before playing UMass at home. That’s another one to circle on the schedule.
Which college football coaches do I need to fade off a bye week?
You’re not gonna believe this, but James Franklin isn’t the only head coach worth fading off a bye week. There are a few other coaches that don’t seem to benefit from the extra rest and preparation time. Coaches to consider fading are as follows:
- Mario Cristobal
Cristobal is 17-10 straight up when off a bye week, but he’s only 9-17-1 ATS for his career as a head coach when coming off a bye week. He’s 1-8 ATS off a bye week as a head coach with Miami, so this is definitely a trend worth following. Books really overinflate Miami’s point spread when coming off a bye week, and the public tends to bet the line up. This is the classic case of ‘too many points’ and needs to be faded. Miami gets Florida State in Coral Gables after a bye week for the Hurricanes. That line will be through the roof. Expect it to be too many points. - Ken Niumatalolo
Niumatalolo was 18-13 straight up off a bye week with Navy, but only 13-18 ATS when off a bye. This likely reflects books overinflating lines, expecting run-heavy Navy teams to be better prepared off a bye week. He’s 1-1 ATS off a bye week at San Jose State. This is likely a Navy trend and not a Ken Niumatalolo trend. - Chris Klieman
Klieman is an odd case because his 7-8 record straight up as a head coach off a bye week isn’t terrible, but his teams are 4-11 ATS when off a bye. Oddsmakers tend to overinflate Kansas State coming off a bye week, and that factors into the results. Tread carefully when the Wildcats are a heavy favorite coming off a bye week.
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