It’s always exciting when a college football team adds a new head coach, especially when it’s a guy who hasn’t had an opportunity yet. It’s fun for fans, but what about gamblers? Is there a betting trend for head coaches making their first jump to the FBS level? Should gamblers look to ride or fade the guys who are brand new at college football’s highest level? We’ve crunched the numbers, and the results may surprise you. Let’s get into it.
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2026 College Football: How Do First-Year Head Coaches Perform ATS?
How did first-year head coaches perform ATS in 2023?
In 2023, 13 coaches took the reins for the first time at the FBS level. Only three true first-year head coaches managed to finish .500 or better overall, but eight managed a .500 record or better against the spread.
Coastal Carolina’s Tim Beck went 8-5 overall, but managed an 8-4 record ATS. Deion Sanders at Colorado and Tim Morris at North Texas managed to go 7-4-1 ATS in their first year as a head coach at the FBS level. These three were by far the most profitable true first-year head coaches in the country to ride.
Kent State went 1-11 with Kenni Burns in his first year, but he was 3-8-1 against the spread. Ryan Walters at Purdue was 4-8 overall and ATS in his first year. These two were the most profitable to fade.
Overall, fading the three first-year head coaches would have come out slightly ahead ATS, but we’ll call this one a push with the juice.
How did first-year head coaches perform ATS in 2024?
Eight more head coaches got their first head coaching gig at the FBS level in 2025. Only three managed to finish .500 or higher overall, and only three managed a .500 record or better against the spread.
Bob Chesney made the jump from Holy Cross to James Madison and managed a 9-4 overall record and a 7-5 mark against the spread. He’s one of the few first-year head coaches who would have turned a profit if you rode with him.
Mississippi State’s Jeff Lebby and Georgia State’s Dell McGee were the most profitable first-year head coaches to fade. Lebby was 2-10 overall and 3-9 ATS. McGee managed a 3-9 overall mark, but went 4-8 against the spread.
Bettors would have come out ahead a few units if they blindly faded every coach taking his first big job at college football’s highest level in 2024.
How did first-year head coaches perform ATS in 2025?
The 2025 college football season saw 25 head coaches make their FBS coaching debut. Only 10 true first-year head coaches managed to finish .500 or better overall, and only 10 managed to finish .500 or better against the spread.
Kennesaw State head coach Jerry Mack went 10-4 straight up, and New Mexico’s Jason Eck went 9-4 in their first seasons as a head coach at the FBS level. Mack went 9-5 overall ATS, and Eck posted a 7-6 mark against the spread. Central Michigan’s Matt Drinkall outperformed his overall record. Drinkall went 7-6 overall, but 8-5 ATS in his first season as a head coach at college football’s highest level. However, Washington State’s Jimmy Rogers was only 6-6 overall, but went 8-4 against the spread. He’s one of the few coaches in their true first year to outperform their straight-up record.
There was also a lot of bad in 2025. UMASS head coach Joe Harasymiak went 0-12 overall, but managed a 3-9 mark ATS. Sam Houston State’s Phil Longo was 2-10 overall, but managed a 3-9 record against the spread.
First-year head coaches in 2025 were essentially sideways, but there were a lot more extreme outliers this year than in previous seasons. There were opportunities to profit, but most first-year head coaches in 2025 were nine head coaches were within one game of .500 ATS.
What’s the overall analysis?
There are a couple of takeaways here. First, if a first-year head coach is catching a season win total over 6.5, look to fade it. Only 14 out of all first-year head coaches taking their first job at the FBS level managed more than 6.5 wins in their initial year.
Also, first-year head coaches don’t really have a solid trend either way. They’re essentially a fade unless they’re involved in a known tough spot like a back-to-back road game, facing a team after they win a big game, or facing a seasoned coach in a must-win spot. However, we are coming off a year that had several outliers.
Lastly, look to fade true first-year head coaches who were on coaching staffs, but not the head coach previously. 11 out of 22 head coaches that made the jump from coordinator or position coach were .500 or below against the spread in their first year.
Which first-year head coaches should I look to ride or fade in 2026?
We have 12 head coaches at the FBS level starting in their first head coaching role this year. 10 of the 12 true first-year head coaches are moving from coordinator or assistant coach roles to the head job this year. That’s a lot of opportunities to fade coaches that have been in a spot that’s among the better trends for first-year head coaches.
Jamarcus Shephard is taking the head coaching job at Oregon State after spending nearly 15 years as either an assistant or co-offensive coordinator. Shephard is coming into a team in transition that likely won’t be very good. Most analysts view this hire as a bit of a gamble. Shephard can recruit and develop receivers, but can he run an entire team? Oregon State will face growing pains this year, and Shephard looks like an obvious fade candidate in year one.
Will Stein is making the jump from offensive coordinator at Oregon to the head coaching role at Kentucky. Stein is a highly regarded offensive assistant, but he’s heading into the SEC with a roster that will end up in the bottom half of the standings. He’ll find running an offense to be a lot tougher in Lexington than it was at Eugene with nearly unlimited funds and a new class of five-star recruits every year. This is another fade spot for 2026.
Kirby Moore comes to Washington State after spending a few years as the offensive coordinator at Missouri. Washington State lost Jimmy Rogers after only one year, and several key players went with him. Moore has to rebuild his roster, and he’s starting with a question mark at quarterback. After a solid year one with Rogers, the Cougars get to start over with Moore. This could be a rough season in Pullman, WA, and bettors should look to fade Moore, especially early in the year.
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