One more day of golf remains at Augusta National, and it never fails to amaze how quickly things can change at this place. We saw it again in Round 3. Scottie Scheffler started the day 12 shots back and, within a few hours, found himself within four of the lead. Not long after, Sam Burns came out and immediately cut the lead to three right out of the gate.
That’s Augusta.
It is never over here, and that volatility is exactly what makes Sunday so compelling. Momentum swings quickly, pressure builds on every hole, and no lead is ever truly safe. Expect more of the same heading into Round 4.
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2026 Masters Round 4 Bets
Xander Primed For a Backdoor
Xander Schauffele is, quite simply, a professional backdoor artist. Before becoming a two-time major champion, he built a reputation on consistently finding his way into non-competitive top-five finishes. It became almost predictable — he would hover just outside contention and then quietly post a number late.
Now, sitting just four strokes outside of fifth place, he finds himself in a very familiar position. A strong round on Sunday almost guarantees a climb up the leaderboard. We know players ahead of him are likely to falter under pressure, and that opens the door for someone like Xander to capitalize.
His stat profile this week has been extremely solid across the board, and there are no glaring weaknesses holding him back. It’s the exact type of setup where he thrives — not needing to win, just needing to go low and let the leaderboard come to him.
Don’t be surprised if he posts a number early and applies pressure from behind. And if that happens, you can already picture what comes next — the market reacting and people lining up to bet him at a short number in the next major.
The Pick: Schauffele Top 5 +780
This Line Seems Off!
Sometimes you come across a number that simply doesn’t make sense, and you don’t need to overthink it.
Aaron Rai being listed as just a small favorite over a past Masters champion like Charl Schwartzel stands out. Schwartzel has not been playing competitive golf regularly, and that lack of reps matters, especially at a place like Augusta where precision and sharpness are critical.
Rai, on the other hand, has been grinding week in and week out on the PGA Tour. He brings a much higher floor right now, along with a strong approach ceiling — a skill set that plays very well at Augusta National.
This feels like a spot where current form and sharpness should win out.
The Pick: Rai -125 v Schwartzel
