The Buffalo Bills have had a strange season. They headed into 2025 as the outright favorites to win the Super Bowl, but a topsy-turvy campaign saw them surrender their AFC East title for the first time in six years to Drake Maye’s reborn New England Patriots. And yet, despite looking far from their usual imperious selves, the consensus opinion is that the Highmark outfit will never have a better chance of claiming a maiden Lombardi.
Bills Open as Favorites Against Broncos
The Bills rolled into the number three seed in Jacksonville on wildcard weekend as narrow underdogs with online betting sites. Despite being battered from pillar to post for most of the clash, Superman himself, Josh Allen, managed to conjure up some fourth-quarter magic to somehow secure a scarcely believable 27-24 win. The aftermath of that triumph saw the online gambling at 5Gringos odds install Buffalo as a 1.5-point favorite to roll into the home of top-seeded Denver and pull off the victory.
The sharps took full advantage of those odds, backing the Broncos and swinging the line in their favor. At the same time, the same outlet considers the Bills as more likely to win the Super Bowl, positioning them as +620 third-favorites behind the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams.
So, can Allen lead his Bills to another stunning victory by knocking off the top-seeded Denver on enemy territory at Mile High in the divisional round? There is certainly precedent. Here are the most recent top seeds to fall in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Detroit Lions, 2024
Last season, the Detroit Lions were supposed to be powering their way toward a date with destiny. First NFC top seed in franchise history. Fifteen wins. Dan Campbell’s meatball-sub motivational speeches are working overtime all season long. With Jarred Goff slinging it to Amon-Ra St. Brown and a two-pronged ground attack from Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, anything seemed possible. The Washington Commanders, by contrast, were the upstarts, along for the ride and still pinching themselves in disbelief that they even reached the postseason at all.
Except there was a small problem that had been papered over all year in Motor City: the defense was held together with duct tape. Aaron Glenn’s unit hemorrhaged injuries at every level—cornerbacks, linebackers, pass rushers, you name it. By January, they were trotting out guys who’d been on practice squads in October. Washington’s rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, looked at that secondary and basically saw a Pop Warner scrimmage.
Forty-five points. The second overall rookie carved the Lions apart at will, his offensive line mauling Detroit’s depleted front seven. The Lions, of course, would repeatedly try to answer back, putting up 31 points of their own, but it wasn’t enough to keep pace with the blistering form of Daniels. When your season ends because you literally ran out of healthy bodies to throw at the problem, that’s not bad luck. That’s organizational failure catching up at the worst possible moment.
Tennessee Titans, 2021
Mike Vrabel coached the hell out of the 2021 Tennessee Titans team, earning the AFC’s top seed. Derrick Henry had gone down midseason with a foot injury, and somehow the Nashville outfit just kept winning—grinding out ugly victories with defense, special teams, and Ryan Tannehill doing just enough not to screw it up.
Key phrase there: “just enough not to screw it up.”
Cincinnati showed up in the divisional round, and Tannehill decided that was the day to test how many interceptions one man could throw before his offensive line physically restrained him. Three picks. The upstart Bengals didn’t even play particularly well—they won 19-16 on a last-second field goal after Tannehill’s third interception, a soul-crushing heave into traffic with under a minute left to set up Cincy’s game-winner.
Tennessee’s defense was ferocious, hitting sophomore opposition QB, Joe Burrow, early and often, forcing him into uncomfortable throws, and making life miserable all night. Nineteen points. That’s all Cincinnati managed, their fourth-lowest number all season. And yet the Titans still lost because their quarterback—the guy who’d been steady, if unspectacular, for months—suddenly decided accuracy was optional.
He just sailed balls, forced throws into double coverage, and handed Cincinnati a win they had no business claiming. When your defense holds up its end of the bargain, and you still lose, there’s only one person to blame.
Green Bay Packers, 2021
2021 was the year of the Cheeseheads. Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs, the Packers cruised to thirteen wins and the NFC’s top seed, and it seemed as though all roads led to SoFi Stadium. Then San Francisco showed up in the snow at Lambeau, and suddenly Green Bay’s special teams—which had been a tire fire all season—decided to go nuclear at the worst possible moment.
Blocked field goal before halftime. Missed a 41-yarder in the fourth quarter that would’ve extended the lead to seven. Routine kicks that professional kickers hit ninety percent of the time, and they all just… didn’t happen. The 49ers hung around, stayed within striking distance, and when it mattered most—1:13 left on the clock—they marched 69 yards for the go-ahead touchdown. Final score: 13-10.
Yeah, that worked out great for Green Bay.
Rodgers was magnificent in the snow, doing everything humanly possible to drag his team to a win. But when your kicker can’t convert makeable field goals and your special teams coordinator apparently forgot to coach anyone on blocking assignments, even four-time MVPs can’t overcome institutional incompetence. The 49ers’ defensive front won the line of scrimmage, sure, but Green Bay left points scattered across that frozen field like bread crumbs. San Francisco didn’t win that game. Green Bay handed it to them wrapped in a bow.
