For the first time in nearly a decade, the Buffalo Bills will be searching for a head coach. Sean McDermott was fired this morning, leaving the NFL and Bills fans confused and wondering what comes next. With an elite quarterback, a rabid fanbase, and opening a brand new stadium in 2026, the Bills are the most desirable job opening of the 2026 cycle. Who will be the next head coach of the Buffalo Bills? And who are the front-runners and have the best odds to be hired as the Bills’ coach? Kalshi and the other prediction markets have a full menu of options to predict who will be the next Head Coach of the Buffalo Bills.
Next Buffalo Bills Head Coach: Prediction and Odds
How We Got Here
How does a team fire a coach who has won 10+ games each of the last seven seasons? A man who pulled a moribund franchise up from the depths of a 17-year playoff drought? The guy who starred in his team’s Hallmark movie for goodness sake?!? McDermott had become synonymous with the Bills. The Process and complementary football become buzzwords around One Bills Drive and in Bills Mafia, thanks to McDermott. However, despite the rose colored glasses, McDermott’s Bills struggled when the lights were brightest.
Over the course of his tenure, the Bills were 8-8 in the playoffs and only made two AFC Championship Games. With a mega-talent like Josh Allen, that was always going to be a disappointment. Despite all the regular-season success, Buffalo routinely fell flat in the biggest moments. It was regularly from defensive collapses, special teams debacles, and just generally looking unprepared and overwhelmed by the spotlight. Additionally, there have been several games where the Bills fell flat in easy-to-win games during the regular season that came back to beat them.
This season, the Bills lost head-scratchers to Davis Mills, the woebegone Dolphins, and self-destructed against the Patriots. With better coaching, you have to think that Buffalo gets up for those games and earn the #1 Seed in the AFC and might still be playing this season. Although McDermott is first in Bills’ history in win percentage and second in total wins to only Marv Levy, the success wasn’t there in the biggest moments, and that’s what ultimately led to his firing.
What’s Next for Buffalo?
Now, retaining Brandon Beane as General Manager may not be the best move, he is likely even more at fault than McDermott was for this year’s talentless roster. And his frosty relationship with local media will only get worse with the firing of McDermott. Regardless of whether you agree or not, McDermott is out, and Beane is shopping for the Bills’ next head coach.
In his previous two head coach searches, Bills’ Owner Terry Pegula showed a very strong tendency to look for the opposite of what he previously had. When Pegula bought the team, the non-personable and bland Doug Marrone quickly exercised his buyout option and thrust Buffalo into a coaching search. Moving on from a grumpy offensive coach who famously said, “Don’t confuse effort with results,” pushed Pegula to bring in someone who could better energize the fanbase. He wanted brash. He wanted big. So he went with one of the biggest and brashest head coaches in NFL history, Rex Ryan.
That hire flamed out terribly. Rex went 15-16 in his two seasons, and the effort was routinely lacking on the field. Rex’s brashness and take-no-prisoners attitude grated on many in Western New York, and he failed to deliver a playoff berth. Add in the circus that he brought to town, and Pegula was ready to make a change. That’s how Sean McDermott came into the picture. Sure, McDermott was less experienced than Rex, but he came in preaching discipline and playoff caliber from the get-go. He delivered consistency, stability, and, most importantly, playoff appearances.
Now, Pegula and the Bills will likely be looking for a hire that is again the opposite of their ousted head coach. McDermott was measured and defensive-minded. Whoever the next Bills’ head coach will be will likely be someone with more outward charisma and an offensive focus.
It will be tough to lock in a prediction based on the current odds for the next head coach of the Buffalo Bills, but we will be basing our odds on Kalshi’s prediction market.
The Odds and Favorites to be Bills Head Coach
Klint Kubiak: The Insider Favorite
Currently, Klint Kubiak is the favorite, by a hair, to land the Bills’ head coaching job. Much of that momentum ramped up when Jeremy White of WGR tweeted that he had a source pointing in Kubiak’s direction.
Well… The little birdie that told me this morning that Mcdermott was gonna be gone (that I did not believe at the time) included in that message that Klint Kubiak would be top of list.
— Jeremy White 🚂 (@JeremyWGR) January 19, 2026
White is usually fairly plugged in and trusted by Bills’ fans, so this carries weight. Kubiak is in his first year as offensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks and is one of several young candidates on Buffalo’s radar. He was previously the offensive coordinator for the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings for one season each. This year has been his best season as an OC with the Seahawks’ offense ranking 8th in yards and 3rd in points for 2025.
While in New Orleans, his offense was terrible, but much of that can be placed on a lack of talent. In Minnesota, the offense struggled to run the ball. However, Kirk Cousins and a young Justin Jefferson had the passing offense firing as a top-ten unit. If he gets the job in Buffalo, the big question will be whether Brandon Beane can bring in an elite receiver. Kubiak’s offenses THRIVE with an elite pass catcher, and the Bills currently lack one on their roster.
As a young, rising offensive talent, he provides a good alternative to Sean McDermott. Add in White’s inside knowledge that he is a big target for the Bills, and he feels like the current favorite. Scoop up shares now over on Kalshi and monitor the pricing. Do not be afraid to sell off shares if the price gets above 50 cents either.
Brian Daboll: The Other Favorite
To quote the second-worst commentator in football, “now here’s a guy who’s no stranger to Bills fans.” Brian Daboll has a couple of things going for him as a candidate to be the next Bills’ head coach. When he was hired in 2018, Daboll arrived and was immediately paired with Josh Allen. That season, Allen was a project quarterback who delivered more head-scratching moments than he did highlight reel moments. In 11 starts, Allen threw more interceptions than touchdowns, and the Bills limped to a 6-10 record.
The next season, Daboll and Allen started to show what this offense could be capable of, and by 2019, it was clear that Allen was going to be a superstar. From 2019-2021, Daboll and the Bills were top ten in points each season, top ten in passing in two of three seasons, and had Buffalo 13 seconds from an AFC Championship game.
After Daboll’s departure in 2022 to coach the Giants, Allen took some steps back as a passer, and the offense was not what it was under Daboll. Some of that could have been due to the departure of Stefon Diggs shortly thereafter, but Daboll’s departure cannot be understated. While with the Giants, Daboll started off hot in 2022. He carried them to a playoff win and won Coach of the Year. It was all downhill from there, but it may have been due to the inability of Daniel Jones to stay healthy.
Daboll has Western New York roots. He grew up south of Buffalo and went to the University of Rochester. These connections to the community and his relationship with Josh Allen could give him a leg up. Get shares on him now and don’t start selling until his price goes north of 50 cents. Daboll feels like a leading prediction to be the next Bills head coach, and his odds on Kalshi and elsewhere will reflect that.
Joe Brady: Give the Guy the Chance
Current Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady has been rising up the ranks at One Bills Drive on the backs of others’ failures. Hired in 2022 after a short stint as the Carolina Panthers’ offensive coordinator and one storybook season at LSU, Brady was initially the Bills’ Quarterbacks Coach. Working under then OC Ken Dorsey, Brady took over the OC job in 2023 after Dorsey was fired midseason.
In his three years as coordinator, the Bills have had a prolific offense that is routinely top-ten in points, yards, and just about every category. This season also featured the emergence of James Cook as a dominant force running the ball. Brady has unlocked Cook in a way Dorsey was unable to, and that has helped the Buffalo offense, in theory, become less one-dimensional.
Similar to Kubiak and Daboll, for that matter, Brady likely will demand the Bills go get an elite receiver. Unlike Daboll and Kubiak, we have seen Brady run a high-level offense without a strong receiving corps. Additionally, these offenses are likely to have been HEAVILY influenced by McDermott’s demand for complimentary football. With Brady at the helm, the offense may look entirely different.
Brady is the third of the favorites and is likely to maintain a low price. He is currently hovering around 15 cents per share. Scoop up some Brady shares and watch his price. If it gets above 30 cents, dump some ASAP.
Keep an Eye on These Guys
Mike McDaniel
In the spirit of Terry Pegula wanting to go the opposite direction from his previous head coach, Mike McDaniel is in many ways the anti-McDermott. Brash, outspoken, open with the media, and an alleged offensive savant, McDaniel would be quite the change at One Bills Drive. His offenses in Miami were explosive. Especially in years one and two. However, his approach grew stale, and the league caught on to his gimmicks with Tua under center.
In Buffalo, he would have a much better quarterback in Josh Allen and have an upgrade at running back with James Cook. If the Bills could add a weapon at outside receiver, McDaniel could be the answer that Buffalo is looking for. McDaniel is around a 9% chance on Kalshi and trading at 9 cents per share, scoop up some value there and dump some if his price to be the next Bills head coach gets above 30 cents.
Ejiro Evero
Ejiro Evero would not follow the Bills’ usual trend of going the opposite direction with their head coaching hires. Evero is almost McDermott 2.0, down to him being hired after having been Carolina’s defensive coordinator. Evero was held over from Frank Reich’s staff and is well-regarded in NFL circles. He could bring a different approach to the Bills’ defense, but that would be a long shot.
Evero will likely get an interview, but he is unlikely to be a final candidate as Pegula and Beane will be looking to bring in a head coach with an offensive background and expertise. A few Evero shares at 15 cents seem high, but his 4% chance has me thinking his price will come down. Scoop some shares if he dips below 10 cents and get off if he climbs above 20 cents.
Rest of the Field
The wild card down the list could be Davis Webb. Webb was with Buffalo as a backup quarterback in 2021, and he has a strong relationship with Josh Allen. Buffalo’s future is explicitly tied to Josh Allen, so keeping him happy is a big part of the next head coach’s job. Webb can likely keep Allen happy, but he is massively inexperienced.
Other coaches like Brian Flores, Robert Saleh, and Mike Tomlin are unlikely to garner real interest from the Bills. Tomlin is actually a lower-ceiling version of McDermott. Grab a few shares and be prepared to dump them as soon as they gain traction. The odds on any of these guys being the next Buffalo Bills head coach are low, and don’t bank on them with any prediction on Kalshi.
How to Build Your Portfolio
Whoever the next Bills head coach is will likely have an offensive background. As you prepare to build your portfolio on Kalshi, it is important to keep that in mind as you make a prediction. The best approach will be to spread your bankroll around and monitor their prices. You need to be prepared to dump shares as prices rise to certain levels.
Using a theoretical $100 bankroll, here is how you should attack the Bills’ next head coach market on Kalshi. You do not want to lock in a single prediction to be the next Bills head coach. Rather, you need to monitor the odds and actively make trades.
The Favorites: Daboll, Kubiak, and Brady
You need to have about 60-80% of your bankroll tied up here. It is most likely going to be one of these three guys. Lean heavily on Kubiak and Daboll.
The Maybe: McDaniel
Mike McDaniel has head coaching experience and can lead an offense. Get on him now and stay on him for the long haul.
Pure Speculation: Webb, Saleh, Evero, McCarthy
In their quest for stability, the Bills may turn to a retread like McCarthy or Saleh. It is not a likely outcome, but sprinkle a little on these outcomes and watch their price carefully. Same with Evero and Webb. This is not their cycle, but they may get some buzz, and their price may go wild.
My Choice
I would be okay with any of the offensive candidates, but this job will likely not come down to just whether they make the right hire or not. The biggest concern is the roster surrounding Josh Allen. Without improvement at receiver and fixing the defense, Buffalo will be right back here in three years, and they may not be able to keep Josh Allen on the roster at that point, as he wants out to chase a ring in the twilight of his career.
Currently, my preferred candidate is either Daboll or McDaniel, with the other one coming on board as offensive coordinator. Sure, one of them will leave in a year or two, but the Bills will be the beneficiary of having multiple offensive minds in the same room as Josh Allen. The biggest thing I want to happen, and what I think happens, is that Brandon Beane is sidelined from roster management after the draft.
