In last week’s survivor picks article, I hit both locks and the contrarian dog. Always good to 3-0. It’s eleven weeks in now, and I hope you’re still surviving! We’ve had a winner every week and are looking to keep the action going as we advance in our leagues. Let’s take a look at the Week 11 NFL Survivor picks!
As a reminder, I’m giving out two locks each week, in case you’ve already used the first one. I’m also giving out a contrarian dog play that I think will hit to try and give you an advantage over your league mates!
NFL Survivor Picks Week 11
Look Around the League Week 11 (All Times ET)
Thursday 8:15 PM
Jets @ Patriots (-12.5)
Sunday 9:30 PM (Madrid, Spain)
Commanders @ Dolphins (-2.5)
Sunday 1:00 PM
Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5)
Bucs @ Bills (-6)
Texans (-6.5) @ Titans
Bears @ Vikings (-2.5)
Packers (-7) @ Giants
Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5)
Chargers (-3) @ Jags
Sunday 4:05 PM
Seahawks @ Rams (-3)
49ers (-3) @ Cardinals
Sunday 4:25 PM
Ravens (-8) @ Browns
Chiefs (-3.5) @ Broncos
Sunday 8:20 PM
Lions @ Eagles (-2.5)
Monday 8:15 PM
Cowboys (-3.5) @ Raiders
The Lock: New England Patriots
The easiest pick for your NFL Survivor picks in Week 11 is the New England Patriots. The Patriots have been on a roll and now face the New York Jets. Sure, the Jets have won the last two games, sandwiched around a bye. However, they’ve still been one of the worst teams in football this year.
The Jets are 0-6 against the spread (ATS) on the road after a straight-up win and 3-11 on the road in November. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 13-2 ATS at home on a winning streak of three games or more and 12-3 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points.
The Patriots may start slow in some games, including this one on Thursday night. However, I expect they’ll pick it up, and the Drake Maye MVP chatter will continue. The Patriots have won 3 of the last 5 straight up. On January 7, 2024, the Jets won 17-3 against a Bailey Zappe-led Patriots. On September 19th, Maye didn’t play the full game as Brissett played the majority.
Drake Maye is here, and he’s ready to prove himself. That includes winning the “easy” games like this week’s. The Patriots are a lock for my NFL Survivor.
Another Confident Pick: Baltimore Ravens
The other lock for your NFL survivor picks in Week 11 is the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are getting healthier and trying to make a miraculous playoff push after being 2-5 at one point in the season. These teams played earlier this year, and the Ravens won 41-17. I expect a similar result.
Not much has gone well for the Browns. Dillon Gabriel has been starting, and the results haven’t been pretty. They’ve lost five of the last six games. In the five losses, the Browns scored 69 points and allowed 137 points. Neither the offense nor the defense has pulled its weight.
Not only did the Ravens win 41-17 earlier this year, they also won 35-10 late last year. They match up well, and they know how to beat this division foe. Sure, the Brows could get a slight bump being at home. They did beat the Ravens the last time the two teams played in Cleveland. However, I’m on the Ravens to win this game with the mess that is the Browns.
An Underdog Pick: Chicago Bears
Before you read this one, remember that I’m a Bears fan. So call me misguided or a homer, but my contrarian dog pick this weekend is “Da Bears”. This team has looked transformed under Ben Johnson. I know they lost that first game against Minnesota. However, this has been a different team since then.
Chicago has won six of its last seven games after dropping the first two. In Week 1 against Minnesota, they lost by just three points. Since then, J.J. McCarthy looks worse, and Caleb Williams looks better. Now they’ll face off in Minnesota, and the Bears will be looking for some revenge.
Not only have the Bears looked really good, but they’ve had multiple come-from-behind victories. This team never feels they’re down and out, and they’ll be able to use that to their advantage. On 20 third-down conversions, McCarthy has thrown the ball 14 times and completed zero of them. Bear down.
