It’s time to open the ticket window for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway. There are eight drivers left in the playoffs, a win this weekend at Las Vegas by any of those eight locks them in for a chance to race for the championship. Of course, they’ll have to beat the 37 other cars entered into this race at the 1.5-mile Las Vegas Motor Speedway located in Las Vegas, Nevada. Let’s take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas.
This playoff Round of 8 goes to Las Vegas, the wild card of Talladega, and then finishes up at Martinsville. Eight drivers will be cut down to the championship four for Phoenix. Denny Hamlin is the points leader after the rest, and he’s just eight points above the cut line. Ryan Blaney has a six-point cushion. Kyle Larson and William Byron are each four points above the line. Christoper Bell is four points below the cut. The Chase’s both Elliott and Briscoe start -14. Joey Logano has the biggest hole at -24. Logano won this race last year on his way to the championship.
Odds to Win the South Point 400
Kyle Larson +475
Denny Hamlin +550
Christopher Bell +550
Ryan Blaney +800
William Byron +850
Chase Elliott +1100
Chase Briscoe +1100
Tyler Reddick +1400
Joey Logano +2200
Ross Chastain +1800
Bubba Wallace +2500
Alex Bowman +2500
Josh Berry +3000
Chris Buescher +3500
Brad Keselowski +3500
Ty Gibbs +4000
Carson Hocevar +5000
Ryan Preece +5000
Kyle Busch +6000
Austin Cindric +6000
Daniel Suarez +6000
Erik Jones +8000
AJ Allmendinger +12500
John Hunter Nemechek +20000
Michael McDowell +20000
Zane Smith +25000
Austin Dillon +25000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +25000
Noah Gragson +35000
Todd Gilliland +35000
Justin Haley +35000
Shane Van Gisbergen +35000
Cole Custer +10000
Riley Herbst +10000
Ty Dillon +10000
Cody Ware +20000
JJ Yeley +20000
Katherine Legge +20000
NASCAR Picks: South Point 400 at Las Vegas Odds and Best Bets
Daniel Suarez Top 10 (+450)
Daniel Suarez at almost 5/1 odds is a wicked good deal this week. Suarez is a driver we ignore most weeks, and for good reason. But he’s also a driver who has a few race tracks he’s really good at. And while it may not always make sense, like Austin Dillon at Richmond, you have to follow the trend. Suarez has not only finished top 10 the last two races here at Las Vegas, he’s finished top three! He finished second in the spring race to Josh Berry, and third last fall in the race Logano won. He’s finished top 16, so within a few spots of the top 10 in six straight and seven of the last eight here.
Suarez’s 13.4 average finish in the NextGen era at Las Vegas puts him sixth best among active drivers. If you drop the one race he got into a wreck, his average improves to 9.5, which would be fourth best among active drivers. Suarez is also coming off a strong run at the Roval, where he finished in seventh place. Carrying momentum into a track he loves is always great.
Ross Chastain Top 10 (-110)
Let’s just stay in the Trackhouse Racing camp, shall we? Apparently, both of these Trackhouse drivers love this track. Chastain tops the list of all drivers, active or not, in average finish here at Las Vegas in the NextGen era at 5.4 over seven races. In six of those seven, he’s finished inside of ten top 10s, with the spring of 2023 race the lone exception where he finished 12th.
Chastain got eliminated in heartbreaking fashion last year in part due to two driver mistakes on pit road. Sometimes, this can cause a driver to check out or give less effort. But if you watch his post-race interview, and how much he beat himself up. One thing I’m sure of, that’ll be one motivated Watermelon Man in Las Vegas this week.
Chase Briscoe Over William Byron (-105)
If you’d read this article or listened to the NASCAR Gambling Podcast over the latter half of this season, you know how much I love betting on Chase Briscoe. I keep coming back to him for one big reason: he keeps winning us money. He’s been a stud down the stretch in the Cup Series. His track record here isn’t great, but throw that out because he’s in a car 10x better than what he was. Martin Truex was great here, and where Truex was good. Briscoe has been good.
On intermediate tracks this year, it’s been a lot of Briscoe and a little of Byron. In Kansas, Briscoe finished fourth, running up front all day, while Byron finished a very lucky ninth after running in the 20s all day. Briscoe won at Darlington, leading over 300 laps, while Byron finished 21st. They were close at Indy, 18th to 16th. Briscoe won Pocono, and Byron finished 27th. They finished third and second at Charlotte. And Kansas spring was another fourth for Briscoe, to 24th for Byron. Yet, Byron is the favorite. Yes, his track record here is good, but I’ll take Briscoe in this one.
Chase Briscoe to Win (+1100)
Speaking of Briscoe. There’s rarely been a race I’ve bet on him and regretted it. He’s in the mix and has one of the fastest cars week in and week out. There’s no reason to believe that won’t be the case again this week, and when his teammate Denny Hamlin is half the price, you are getting a deal on Briscoe at this number.
