The race for the 2025 NFL MVP is one of the most intriguing storylines of the season. As teams hit mid-season form, the conversation around the league’s elite talent intensifies.
From established superstars to surprising risers, this year’s MVP candidates showcase not only record-breaking stats but also clutch performances that define their franchises.
Let’s dive into the leading contenders shaping the narrative and what the numbers suggest about their shot at football’s most prestigious individual award.
Josh Allen: The Dual-Threat Dynamo
Josh Allen continues to redefine the quarterback position with his rare blend of arm strength and athleticism. Leading the Buffalo Bills offense, Allen is once again at the heart of MVP discussions, commanding one of the most explosive attacks in the NFL.
His ability to create plays outside the pocket and deliver precision throws deep downfield keeps defenses on their heels every week.
Allen continues to showcase his dual-threat capability with notable rushing contributions, having accumulated over 200 rushing yards and multiple touchdowns as of early October 2025.
If the Bills maintain their pace as an AFC powerhouse, Allen’s combination of stats and leadership makes him one of the MVP candidates bettors can’t ignore. For those following pro football odds at FanDuel, Allen consistently ranks among the shortest odds, reflecting his sustained dominance in the sport.
As of October 7, 2025, the odds of Allen winning the MVP are: +150
Patrick Mahomes: The Gold Standard
When discussing MVP candidates, Patrick Mahomes remains the benchmark. The Kansas City Chiefs’ signal-caller continues to perform at a historic level, displaying poise, creativity, and command that few can replicate.
Even as the Chiefs evolve offensively, Mahomes adjusts seamlessly, proving why he’s perennially in the MVP race.
In 2025, Mahomes’s efficiency remains stellar. He’s maintaining an elite ranking in completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio, all while navigating one of the league’s most demanding schedules.
His ability to elevate new weapons and turn average drives into scoring opportunities highlights his football IQ and adaptability.
Mahomes’s consistency, both in production and winning, ensures that every week adds to his MVP resume. With Kansas City eyeing another deep playoff run, Mahomes’s mix of leadership and statistical brilliance cements him as the MVP’s gold standard.
As of October 7, 2025, the odds of Mahomes winning the MVP are: +400
Justin Herbert: The Stat Sheet Sensation
Justin Herbert’s 2025 campaign has been a statistical clinic. Now fully healthy and backed by a balanced offensive scheme, the Los Angeles Chargers’ quarterback is delivering on his massive potential.
Herbert’s cannon arm and quick processing allow him to dissect defenses, while his improved red-zone decision-making has turned drives into touchdowns rather than field goals.
This year, Herbert ranks among the league leaders in passing yards and completions, showcasing elite consistency. His chemistry with his receivers, especially on intermediate routes, highlights his progression as a field general.
The Chargers’ resurgence in a tough AFC West bolsters his MVP narrative. If Los Angeles secures a playoff spot, Herbert’s numbers could rival those of any other contender. Among the MVP candidates, he’s one of the most statistically appealing, and perhaps, the most undervalued.
As of October 7, 2025, the odds of Herbert winning the MVP are: + 1000
Baker Mayfield: The Unexpected Contender
Baker Mayfield’s 2025 season is one of the league’s most surprising stories. After years of bouncing between teams, Mayfield has found stability and confidence, guiding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back into contention.
His leadership and energy have transformed the Buccaneers’ offense into an efficient and disciplined unit capable of competing with top-tier defenses.
Mayfield’s resurgence is reflected in his sharp decision-making. His interception rate has dropped dramatically, while his completion percentage is among the best of his career. What’s more, Mayfield’s ability to engineer comeback drives and perform under pressure has earned him national recognition.
He may not lead in raw numbers, but his clutch performances and team impact keep him firmly in the conversation for the MVP award. For bettors, he’s a dark-horse pick with enticing odds, a testament to his remarkable turnaround.
As of October 7, 2025, the odds of Mayfield winning the MVP are: + 1200
Matthew Stafford: The Veteran Surge
Matthew Stafford, now 37, continues to impress with his steady and precise passing. His experience is guiding a Rams offense that combines youthful talent with veteran savvy.
This season, Stafford’s deep throws have been notably effective, helped by better protection from the offensive line and talented young receivers stepping up. He has thrown for over 1,500 yards in just five games, showing strong accuracy and efficiency.
While projections suggest he could approach 4,500 yards this season, the focus remains on his consistent and efficient performance, especially on longer throws, where advanced metrics rank him among the most effective in the league.
For a player who’s already captured a Super Bowl ring, adding an MVP trophy would be a crowning achievement. Among this year’s MVP candidates, Stafford represents the ideal mix of leadership, production, and narrative momentum.
As of October 7, 2025, the odds of Stafford winning the MVP are: + 1200
Betting Strategy: Reading the MVP Race
For bettors tracking the 2025 MVP market, strategy is key. This award often hinges on a blend of elite performance, team success, and narrative momentum. Start by focusing on quarterbacks leading playoff-caliber teams; historically, they have dominated MVP voting. Stats matter, but signature wins and highlight moments often sway voters late in the season.
When exploring lines at top sportsbooks, including the pro football odds at FanDuel, monitor week-to-week fluctuations. Early-season value picks like Baker Mayfield may offer long-shot potential, while steady favorites like Mahomes and Allen typically deliver lower but safer returns.
Consider hedging mid-season if a player’s odds shorten significantly after key wins. And remember, health, schedule strength, and late-season storylines often determine who hoists the trophy. Smart bettors blend data with timing, capitalizing on opportunities before public sentiment shifts.
The Race is On
The 2025 NFL MVP race captures everything fans love about football: high performance, unpredictability, and defining moments.
From Josh Allen’s dual-threat dominance to Patrick Mahomes’s steady excellence, and from Justin Herbert’s statistical fireworks to Baker Mayfield’s redemption arc, each candidate brings a unique storyline to the table. Add Matthew Stafford’s veteran resurgence, and this season’s field is one of the most competitive in years.
As the weeks unfold, both fans and bettors will watch closely because in a race this tight, every throw counts.
