The 2025 Open Championship is officially underway, and we’re locked in from the start. As is tradition with links golf, the weather will play a significant role—and this Thursday, the draw could create some real edge.
Forecasts suggest Thursday morning will feature calmer, more scoreable conditions, while the afternoon wave is expected to face stiffer winds. That potential discrepancy sets up nicely for some First Round Leader value plays in the early tee times. Let’s get into it.
Round 1 at the 2025 Open Championship
First Round Leader Bets
Tom McKibbin – FRL +8000
Northern Ireland’s own Tom McKibbin tees off bright and early at 6:35 AM and brings a local edge to Royal Portrush. Outside of Rory or Padraig Harrington, no one in the field has logged more reps here than McKibbin.
He’s proven himself on the DP World Tour and has shown flashes on LIV this season. He’s also coming off a strong Sunday at Valderrama, a course that demands precision—similar to what Portrush will ask. McKibbin’s combination of familiarity and confidence makes him a live longshot to post a number before the wind picks up.
Jordan Smith – FRL +10000
Smith is a pure tee-to-green technician, known for getting off to fast starts. While he’s struggled to close tournaments, that’s not our concern in the FRL market.
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He’ll have the luxury of an stress-free morning round in ideal scoring conditions—perfect for a guy who can stripe irons and convert birdie looks when pressure is low. If Smith finds a rhythm early, don’t be surprised if he’s near the top of the leaderboard after 18.
Round 1 Three-Ball
Sam Burns (+125) vs. Brooks Koepka & Aldrich Potgieter
Sam Burns has quietly put together a strong stretch of golf, with near wins at the Canadian Open and U.S. Open. He also played in the penultimate group on Sunday at last year’s Open Championship. His game travels, and his recent form gives reason for optimism.
Meanwhile, this feels like a perfect fade spot for Koepka, who has been all over the map off the tee. If he can’t find fairways here, he’s in for a long day. As for Potgieter, Royal Portrush doesn’t suit his power-centric game. He’ll have fewer opportunities to leverage his distance advantage on a course designed to compress the field.
Burns should thrive with his all-around consistency and has a great chance to post the lowest number in this group.
