At the beginning of the month, prior to the draft, I released an article tracking the current market on 2025 NFL win totals. There was also one after the draft here. I’ll be keeping a continuous article going, tracking each month how they change. Now that the draft has settled and rookie minicamps have taken place, let’s take a look at the current NFL Win totals.
Check out the SGP Guys’ win totals episode here.
Download a copy of the 2025 NFL Win Totals Tracker
2025 NFL Win Totals Tracking: May Win Totals Futures Bets
NFC North
| Division | Team | 4/7 Win Totals (Over/Under Price) | 4/28 Win Totals | 5/13 Win Totals |
| NFC North | Chicago Bears | 8.5 (+110/-130) | 8.5 (+110/-130) | 8.5 (+100/-120) |
| NFC North | Detroit Lions | 10.5 (-110/-110) | 10.5 (-110/-110) | 10.5 (-110/-110) |
| NFC North | Green Bay Packers | 9.5 (-120/+100) | 9.5 (-120/+100) | 9.5 (-120/+100) |
| NFC North | Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 (-130/+110) | 8.5 (-145/+120) | 8.5 (-145/+120) |
Looking at the current NFL win totals for the NFC North, the Lions, Packers, and Vikings all stayed the same. The over/under stayed the same, as did the priced odds. These three teams have remained consistent, and based on the win totals, Vegas expects the NFC North to finish Lions, Packers, Bears, and then Vikings.
However, the one change we can see is with the Chicago Bears. The number of wins still sits at 8.5. However, the odds changed. On 4/28, right after the draft, the Bears were +110 to go over 8.5 wins. It’s now sitting at even money at +100. One thing the books have reported is that bettors like the Bears.
As a Bears fan, that’s scary. The Bears have, for a long time, been better dogs than favorites. Now, bettors are buying into what Caleb Williams and the Bears are going to do. I expect next month this number may drop to -110. I’d jump on the Bears over 8.5 wins now.
NFC East
| Division | Team | 4/7 Win Totals (Over/Under Price) | 4/28 Win Totals | 5/13 Win Totals |
| NFC East | Dallas Cowboys | 7.5 (+105/-125) | 7.5 (+100/-120) | 7.5 (-130/+110) |
| NFC East | New York Giants | 5.5 (+115/-140) | 5.5 (+115/-140) | 5.5 (+110/-130) |
| NFC East | Philadelphia Eagles | 11.5 (-110/-110) | 11.5 (-110/-110) | 11.5 (-110/-110) |
| NFC East | Washington Commanders | 9.5 (-120/+120) | 9.5 (-125/+105) | 9.5 (-125/+105) |
The 2025 Win Totals market for the NFC East had one of the biggest changes of the month from post-draft. The Cowboys over 7.5 wins have gone from +100 to -130. The under also fell from -120 to +110. If you’re a Cowboy doubter, now would be a good time to jump on the under.
I’m actually surprised we didn’t see a one-game bump. This is because of the trade they recently made to acquire George Pickens from the Steelers. Pickens and Lamb now form one of the best receiving duos in the NFL. It will be up to Dak Prescott to help them succeed.
The Giants also had a slight change in their odds. Their number of games is still set at 5.5. However, the over dropped from +115 to +110. The under came down a little from -140 to -130. The Giants haven’t had any changes since then. Perhaps all it took was one no-pressure throw in shorts from Jaxson Dart to solidify some confidence.
The Eagles and the Commanders had no changes. The projected one and two in this division, both of these teams will be battling for that top spot, and hoping that the win totals on the other two are close to accurate. The books’ odds show they think the division will finish Eagles, Commanders, Cowboys, and then the Giants.
NFC West
| Division | Team | 4/7 Win Totals (Over/Under Price) | 4/28 Win Totals | 5/13 Win Totals |
| NFC West | Arizona Cardinals | 8.5 (+100/-120) | 8.5 (+100/-120) | 8.5 (+100/-120) |
| NFC West | LA Rams | 9.5 (-130/+110) | 9.5 (-130/+110) | 9.5 (-145/+120) |
| NFC West | San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 (+110/-130) | 10.5 (+110/-130) | 10.5 (+110/-130) |
| NFC West | Seattle Seahawks | 8.5 (+115/-140) | 8.5 (+115/-140) | 8.5 (+115/-140) |
The NFC West had only one change in its win totals. The current standings would put the 49ers finishing first, then the Rams, the Cardinals, and then the Seahawks.
The Rams were the only change, their over price getting juiced from -130 to -145. The under price went from +110 to +120. Momentum is building for the Rams and for good reason. This division feels wide open, and as long as Matt Stafford is healthy, the Rams should have a good chance at winning it.
NFC South
| Division | Team | 4/7 Win Totals (Over/Under Price) | 4/28 Win Totals | 5/13 Win Totals |
| NFC South | Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 (-115/-105) | 7.5 (-120/+100) | 7.5 (-120/+100) |
| NFC South | Carolina Panthers | 6.5 (-125/+105) | 6.5 (-125/+105) | 6.5 (-125/+105) |
| NFC South | New Orleans Saints | 6.5 (-110/-110) | 6.5 (+125/-150) | 6.5 (+155/-180) |
| NFC South | Tampa Bay Bucs | 9.5 (-105/-115) | 9.5 (-105/-115) | 9.5 (-105/-115) |
There was one change in the NFC South, and it’s primarily surrounding Derek Carr announcing his retirement. The Saints are still sitting at 6.5 wins, however, the over price went from +125 to +155. The under was juiced at -150 and is now up to a wild -180.
This likely indicates bettors aren’t confident that Tyler Shough or Spencer Rattler can get the same job done. Carr’s retirement was somewhat surprising given that he had clapped back and indicated he was going to be playing.
The Bucs are the favorite of the division, with the Falcons behind them by two games. The Panthers and Saints are tied at a win total of 6.5. However, the Panthers over odds are set at -125, meaning there is more confidence they finish third over the Saints.
AFC North
| Division | Team | 4/7 Win Totals (Over/Under Price) | 4/28 Win Totals | 5/13 Win Totals |
| AFC North | Baltimore Ravens | 11.5 (-115/-105) | 11.5 (-115/-105) | 11.5 (-115/-105) |
| AFC North | Cincinnati Bengals | 9.5 (-150/+125) | 9.5 (-150/+125) | 9.5 (-150/+125) |
| AFC North | Cleveland Browns | 4.5 (-150/+125) | 4.5 (-160/+130) | 4.5 (-160/+130) |
| AFC North | Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 (+110/-130) | 8.5 (+110/-130) | 8.5 (+110/-130) |
The AFC North had no changes. The division is expected to be won by the Ravens, with the Bengals behind them. The next best odds are the Steelers, and then the Browns.
It is interesting that the Pickens trade affected the Cowboys’ price but did not affect the Steelers. Losing Pickens didn’t change their odds any. We also still don’t know who will be their starting quarterback in Week 1.
AFC East
| Division | Team | 4/7 Win Totals (Over/Under Price) | 4/28 Win Totals | 5/13 Win Totals |
| AFC East | Buffalo Bills | 11.5 (-145/+120) | 11.5 (-160/+135) | 11.5 (-160/+135) |
| AFC East | Miami Dolphins | 8.5 (+110/-130) | 8.5 (+115/-135) | 8.5 (+135/-160) |
| AFC East | New England Patriots | 8.5 (+115/-135) | 8.5 (+115/-140) | 8.5 (+100/-120) |
| AFC East | New York Jets | 5.5 (-145/+120) | 5.5 (-145/+120) | 5.5 (-160/+135) |
The AFC East had the most changes for NFL win totals. Every team except for the Bills had a shift in the odds on their win totals. The current odds favor the Bills winning the division, followed by the Patriots. The Dolphins look like they would finish third, followed by the Jets in last.
The Dolphins’ odds to go over 8.5 wins actually got worse. They were +115 to hit over and are now +135. The under was juiced at -135 and has now gone all the way to -160. The Patriots also changed, and their odds got better. They were +115 to go over 8.5 wins and are now +100.
The under fell from -140 to -120. I love all the changes they made, but this is a big jump in this division. I don’t mind grabbing Patriots under 8.5 wins for some nice value.
Finally, the Jets to win over 5.5 games went from -145 to -160. Some of this could be attributed to the fantasy football community gaining excitement over Justin Fields. Under 5.5 wins went from +120 to +135 for any Jets doubters.
AFC West
| Division | Team | 4/7 Win Totals (Over/Under Price) | 4/28 Win Totals | 5/13 Win Totals |
| AFC West | Denver Broncos | 9.5 (-110/-110) | 9.5 (-110/-110) | 9.5 (-110/-110) |
| AFC West | Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 (-110/-110) | 11.5 (-110/-110) | 11.5 (+100/-120) |
| AFC West | LA Chargers | 9.5 (-110/-110) | 9.5 (-110/-110) | 9.5 (-110/-110) |
| AFC West | Las Vegas Raiders | 6.5 (-130/+110) | 6.5 (-145/+120) | 6.5 (-145/+120) |
The AFC West only had one change in the NFL win totals, and that was the Super Bowl runner-ups, the Kansas City Chiefs. They’re still sitting at 11.5 wins, however,r the over went from -110 to +100. The under went from -110 to -120. If you don’t think the Chiefs will take a step back, now is a good time to grab the over for plus money.
The Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders all stayed the same. This is looking like it’ll be one of the closer divisions. The Chiefs are the favorites to lead it, but the Broncos and Chargers are right behind them and have the same odds of getting second.
The Raiders are bringing up the rear as Pete Carroll takes over his first year as the Las Vegas head coach.
AFC South
| Division | Team | 4/7 Win Totals (Over/Under Price) | 4/28 Win Totals | 5/13 Win Totals |
| AFC South | Houston Texans | 9.5 (+100/-120) | 9.5 (+100/-120) | 9.5 (+100/-120) |
| AFC South | Indianapolis Colts | 7.5 (-110/-110) | 7.5 (-110/-110) | 7.5 (-110/-110) |
| AFC South | Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.5 (-125/+100) | 7.5 (-125/+100) | 7.5 (-125/+100) |
| AFC South | Tennessee Titans | 5.5 (-150/+125) | 5.5 (-150/+125) | 5.5 (-150/+125) |
The AFC South didn’t have any changes in the NFL win totals. The Texans are favored to win the division, followed by the Jaguars, the Colts, and last, the Titans.
