Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first bucket props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first bucket bets for May 5. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first bucket props for May 5.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First Bucket Props – May 5
New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
TD Garden – Boston, MA
Broadcast – TNT
A fresh set of matchups means a fresh set of first bucket data to pour over. The numbers aren’t really all that complicated in this one at the Celtics have all of the advantages when it comes to scoring first. Firstly, they grab that first possession far more often. Over the regular season, the won the tip 11.5% more of the time than the Knicks. With tip winners getting 65.7% of the first buckets this year, that should already be enough to back the Celtics at -170. However, when you add in a 6.4% lead when it comes to converting the chances, it’s a slam dunk.
The Celtics have a slew of guys who got busy in the early game during the opening series. However, the volume that I liked the best was from Kristaps Porzingis. Over the last three games in the series, he was the only Celtics player to be featured in the first three shots of their shot log. If you add up all his chances in that span, he accounted for 44.4% of all their shots. That combined with a defensive matchup I like for him should lead to an early score in this one.
First Bucket Bet for May 5: Kristaps Porzingis (+400)
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tipoff – 9:30 pm EST
Paycom Center – Oklahoma City, OK
Broadcast – TNT
We’ve got a similar tip lead here in Oklahoma City as Chet Holmgren gets ready to jump against Nikola Jokic. The season-long stats for Oklahoma City can be a little misleading due to the amount of time certain players missed. However, if we look at the tip wins, Chet Holmgren holds a 10.7% advantage when it comes to winning the tip over Jokic. Additionally, the Thunder were a top ten team in the league when it came to converting those chances. As a result, I like the -140 line for them to score first.
If we’re getting greedy and looking for a player, I don’t see a reason to look further than the aforementioned Chet Holmgren. Holmgren, much like Porzingis, accounted for the lion’s share of the early looks in the previous series. He was featured in the first three shots of the shot log in each of the last three games. Additionally, he made up 44.4% of those attempts. Also, his ability to shoot from the outside doesn’t just limit him to matchups we like.
First Bucket Bet for May 5: Chet Holmgren (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first bucket bets for May 5, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
