While the UFC continues to be the king when it comes to MMA and gambling, there is more MMA than ever to bet on now. Promotions all over the world as well as domestic ones are showing up in sportsbooks. The advantage here is that the data is usually quite a bit less sharp than when you’re making MMA predictions for the UFC. So we’ve decided to dig into some each week to get you started on your regional MMA journey. This week, we head over to Asia for RIZIN FF 49 from Saitama, Japan for our regional MMA pick.
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MMA Regional Pick of the Week: RIZIN FF 49
RIZIN FF 49 Heavyweight Fight: Mikio Ueda vs Tae In Kim
Card Start Time: Tuesday, 12:00am EST (RIZIN.com PPV)
This fight is one of the classic mistakes made by books trying to handicap regional MMA. A quick look at the surface and this is a one-sided fight. Tae In Kim is a 5-0 prospect from South Korea. He’s finish all five fights and only once has his opponent made it out of the second round. Meanwhile Mikio Ueda is just 3-2 and is coming off being submitted in the first round. The books see this and instantly install Ueda as a decent-sized underdog.
The problem is a failure to contextualize those spots. Kim hasn’t fought a single fighter with a record better than 6-5. On the other hand, Ueda finished notable prospect Tsuyoshi Sudario, who was 8-2 at the time.
From a stylistic standpoint, Ueda is much sharper on the feet. While he’s struggled with the grappling a bit in the past, Kim doesn’t seem like he’s fit to exploit that. I expect Ueda to fire away early, get a stoppage, and make the books feel real silly for this line.
RIZIN FF 49 Pick: Mikio Ueda ML (+200)
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