Only two spots remain in the NASCAR Championship race at Phoenix. Six drivers will battle it out in this weekend’s Xfinity 500 for the chance at being one of those two drivers. The field will take to the .526-mile “paperclip” for 500 laps on Sunday, November 3rd at 2:00 p.m. ET. Let’s jump in and take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and playoff standings for the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway.
Tyler Reddick won an absolute thriller on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a last lap pass on 2023 Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney. Reddick joins Joey Logano locked in the championship race at Phoenix next week. That leaves just two spots remaining, those spots will be filled Sunday at Martinsville. It’s very simple, a win like Logano and Reddick the last two weeks and you are in! After that, points will determine it.
Here’s a look at the points heading into Martinsville. Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick of course are locked in. Christopher Bell is currently +29 above the cut line, and William Byron is +7 to the good. Below the cut line are Kyle Larson -7, Denny Hamlin -18, Ryan Blaney -38 and Chase Elliott -43. Blaney and Elliott can mathematically make it still, but it’s likely a must-win situation for both.
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Playoff Standings: Xfinity 500 Martinsville Speedway
Kyle Larson +450
Denny Hamlin +500
Ryan Blaney +600
William Byron +700
Chase Elliott +900
Christopher Bell +1200
Joey Logano +1400
Martin Truex Jr +1800
Chase Briscoe +2000
Bubba Wallace +2200
Brad Keselowski +2500
Ross Chastain +2500
Ty Gibbs +2500
Tyler Reddick +2500
Alex Bowman +2800
Kyle Busch +3000
Josh Berry +4000
Chris Buescher +5000
Austin Cindric +8000
Ryan Preece +8000
Carson Hocevar +10000
Daniel Suarez +10000
Todd Gilliland +10000
Austin Dillion +15000
Noah Gragson +15000
Shane Van Gisbergen +25000
Erik Jones +30000
Ricky Stenhouse +30000
Michael McDowell +30000
Zane Smith +50000
Justin Haley +50000
John Hunter Nemechek +50000
Corey Lajoie +50000
Harrison Burton +50000
Daniel Hemric +100000
Kaz Grala +100000
Josh Bilicki +100000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Playoff Standings: Xfinity 500 Martinsville Speedway
Chase Briscoe Top 10 (+130)
Chase Briscoe isn’t a guy who comes up weekly in this article or on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast. However, he is one of the better short-flat-track racers in the NASCAR Cup Series. His outright odds reflect that, with a much shorter number than normal. Luckily for us, there’s value to be found in his top 10 number. His first two starts here at Martinsville didn’t go great, but since then he’s five for five finishing in the top 10 at the end of the day, including a ninth-place finish earlier this season in the spring race.
He ran second at New Hampshire and ninth at Phoenix earlier this year, other short flat tracks where he popped up and showed off his prowess. Enjoy this number now, as he moves to the Joe Gibbs Racing #19 Toyota next year, we aren’t likely to see this type of value at these tracks in that car.
Alex Bowman Over Kyle Busch (-130)
Alex Bowman has been pretty consistent at Martinsville over his last five races at Martinsville, but not so much for Kyle Busch. Over that time span, Bowman has an average finish of 12.8. In that same time frame Busch has competed in six races (Bowman missed the fall of 2022 with concussion-like symptoms). Busch’s average finish sits at 20.4.
If you expanded it out over the last eight races against each other at Martinsville, Bowman holds a 5-3 head-to-head record. We all know this just hasn’t been Kyle Busch’s season, as he only has two races left to grab a victory and keep alive his streak of 19 years in a row with a victory. Over the last eight races this season, Bowman has gotten the best of Busch in six of them. Even though Bowman isn’t in the playoffs anymore, he’s still racing like it and I expect him to be well ahead of Busch in this race.
Chase Elliott to Win Race (+900) and to win Championship (+5000)
“Clutch Chase: Elliott’s Time has Officially Come with Championship 4 Bid.” That was the headline on NASCAR.com in 2020 after Chase Elliott captured the win at Martinsville. It was a must-win situation and Elliott needed to come in clutch to make it to Phoenix and have a shot at his first championship in the Cup Series. Elliott not only won at Martinsville, he won again seven days later at Phoenix and claimed the championship.
Now fast forward to 2024, it’s the same situation again. He sits -43 points below the cut line in what could be the strongest Round of 8 in playoff history, and there are only two spots left to claim. Now is Chase’s chance to come in clutch once again. He’s been strong at Martinsville throughout his career. In the spring he led 64 laps on his way to a third-place finish. Last fall he led 83 laps. With the exception of the spring race in 2023 (his first back from breaking his leg) Elliott has led at least 50 laps in five straight, and six of the last seven races. In three of those races, he led over 185 laps including that clutch 2020 win.
Chase Elliott at Martinsville in the Next Gen …
2024 #1 = 3rd. 2nd best Driver Rating, 3.2 average running position and led 64 laps. #1 for Green Flag Speed and Total Speed Rankings. In 2nd before the late caution.
2023 #2 = 17th. Led 83 laps with pit strategy but ultimately…
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) October 29, 2024
Elliott has easily been the most consistent driver in 2024, with only two finishes worse than 21st all season. However, he’s lacked that dominance we know he’s capable of. Last week we got a little glimpse when he was out front at Homestead for 81 laps. Elliott might be the streakiest driver in the garage. If you think he can win this week, he can easily parlay that into a championship next week. If he makes it to next week, you’ll be lucky to see 5/1 odds let alone 50/1.
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