Setting a plan and sticking to it is a great way to approach many things in life. That remains true with betting. Year after year, we all load up on championship futures for a given league and hope to cash just one in the end. The feeling of following that team for a full season and winning a national championship is like no other. Let’s look at my 2024 -2025 College football futures!
Too often, we keep adding another team week after week, only to win one in the end and barely make a profit. Below, I will walk you through the best strategy for planning your 2024 -2025 College Football Futures Portfolio. Keying in on the return on investment and sticking to a game plan is just as important as the handicapping itself.
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Building a Card For The 2024 College Football Season
The Plan: Select Your Return On Investment
For football, I like to hover around the 4x ROI threshold. What this means is that no matter which team or teams we select to win the National Championship, we will return 4 times our initial investment. Let’s say we have a $100 bankroll to use on futures for this upcoming year.
All of our bets will be set to profit $400 or 4x of that $100. This also means that if we are betting on a team at +400 to win, we cannot bet on a different team, and it would have to be a single-bullet season.
Clearly, the better teams will have shorter odds, and that is what you are paying for. This structure allows you to bet on one team or multiple teams and have the same return on investment no matter which bet hits. Following a 4x ROI structure means you need to hit one winner every four seasons to break even. Easy enough!
Constructing a Card
Let’s stick with the $100 bankroll for this situation. Say team A is +800 to win the National Championship. You want to bet them, and that would cost you $50. A $50 wager on an 8/1 bet will profit $400, exactly what we are looking for.
There goes half your bankroll, but you still have room to add more bullets. Now, you need to look and see what you have left. With $50 left to spend, we have a few options: add one more team at +800 or head down the board to grab a few longer shots.
You do your research and settle on two teams at +3000 and +4000. The 30/1 team will cost you $13, and the 40/1 team will cost you $10. That leaves you at $73 spent and $27 left to spend. From there, you have some more options. Add three teams around 50/1 ($8), one team at 15/1 ($27), or any mixture of something in between.
The Picks
We enter a new era of college football with the expanded 12-team playoff. This really opens up the betting board. Year after year, there is a team around 5 or 6 overall who can really make some noise if they get in. Now, they will have all the opportunity to grab that coveted National Title.
With this being the case, we will go down the board and construct some sort of card. Clearly, Georgia and Ohio State are the best teams on paper and are the betting favorites. If Georgia was 4/1, I would probably single-bullet them and call it a season, but I really think it is a path for some upsets with 12 teams getting in.
Texas +800 ($50 to win $400, Bet 365)
If not now, then when for Texas? The Horns were extremely close last season but fell just short. This year, they have no choice but to be a stronger team because they venture into the SEC for the upcoming season.
Call them “Big 12 Soft.” I’m not buying it. Looking at this offensive line, they are going to be right up there with most of The SEC and will have one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. There is no questioning the Texas offensive firepower; it is the other side of the ball where questions arise.
The Longhorns beefed up the defensive line with some transfers and will have one of the best linebackers in the nation. This is one of the best Horns’ teams in a decade, and they seem ready to pop.
007 making plays 👀@isaiahbond_ pic.twitter.com/XUaDyWK7lu
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) August 6, 2024
Alabama +1500 ($27 to win $400, ESPN BET)
The Tide are in at 15/1. It is a new era in Tuscaloosa as Kalen Deboer comes in from Washington. Some of the big names from this 2023–2024 Alabama team entered the transfer portal, such as all-world safety Caleb Downs and elite receiver Isaiah Bond. I am aware Saban is not there to recruit, but no one reloads with 5 stars like Alabama. More importantly than anything, Jalen Milroe returns.
Milroe has every tool to be the best Quarterback in college football this year. I am beyond excited to see him in a Deboer system. Although this is a big step for the head coach, he has succeeded at every level of college football in his career, and what is to say?
He can’t do it at Alabama. This team was inches away from getting the job done last year and are surely hungry to break through in 2025.
Florida State +3500 ($11 to Win $400, ESPN BET)
Name a more motivated team. FSU is going to come into this with a massive chip on their shoulder after getting jipped out of the College Football Playoff last season. This season, they should be just as talented as they were last season.
Call QB DJ Uiagalelei an improvement or detriment from Jordan Travis, but we know what his ceiling can be. There is a case for the offense not being as strong as they were last year, losing receiver Keon Coleman, but they have a slew of young receivers up next, along with a ton of new running back talent.
Defensively, they lose Jared Verse, who is irreplaceable, but the rest of the defensive unit should be as strong as ever. This is a great number on a team that has their eyes on one thing.
Clemson +6600 ($6 to win $400, Bet Rivers)
The narrative around Clemson has gone too far. Remember when QB Cade Klubnik was the next man up? Yeah, he has disappointed thus far, but he has as much experience as ever, and we get to buy that advertised ceiling at 66/1. Sometimes, great numbers lead you to great things.
Clemson has a clear path to winning the ACC, and even if they don’t, a one-loss season should be enough to get into the playoff.
The Final Card
Texas +800 ($50)
Alabama: $1500 ($27)
Florida State +3500 ($11)
Clemson +6600 ($8)
