Risers
Corbin Martin, SP, HOU
Martin made his debut Sunday for the Astros, whiffing 9 while surrendering two earned runs on three hits and one walk. It was an excellent debut for the rookie, continuing his stellar start to the season in AAA (24.1 IP, 29.8 K%, and a 1.48 ERA).
Although there’s no guarantee Martin will stick with the club for the long-term, he is a must add in all formats. He boasts high strikeout upside and should be able to rack up wins with the high-powered Astros offense (5th in runs scored).
With Colin McHugh demoted to the bullpen, Martin has a good shot to remain in the starting rotation going forward. His ownership rates are still quite low (10% in Yahoo, 35% CBS, and 4% in ESPN leagues). Pick him up before the rest of your league has the chance.
Franmil Reyes, OF, SP
In the crowded Padres’ outfield, Reyes looks to have seized the starting job in right field. Reyes has 11 home runs and is batting a solid .267.
I am optimistic the average will tick up a few points as well because he is absolutely mashing the ball. Reyes’ Hard% of 53.2% shows he has been unlucky to have a BABIP of only .280. Last year Reyes had a BABIP of .345 with a Hard% of 44.2%.
Another encouraging sign is that Reyes has improved his K% from last season (down to 25.6% from 28.1%). He has accomplished this by swinging at better pitches. He is swinging at pitches in the zone 81.3% of the time versus 62.3% last year.
Reyes certainly has more value in traditional leagues than OBP leagues due to his poor walk rate (5.1 BB%). Regardless, he is a solid pickup in all formats.
Fallers
David Peralta, OF, ARI
Peralta has been swinging a hot stick this year, batting .323 with 6 home runs. But the 31-year-old outfielder has been extremely lucky on balls in play.
His BABIP of .398 is not sustainable and will fall as the season progresses. Peralta is also striking out more than last year (24% K% vs. 20% K% last year) and walking less (5.1% BB% vs. 7.8% BB%).
Peralta is well beyond the minimum number of plate appearances for stablization of BB% and K%. This means we can reasonably project his performance for the rest of this season with more weight on his K% and BB% this season instead of previous seasons.
Given that Peralta has zero stolen bases to date, his high batting is only strong point. All signs point to a regression in his average. Now is the time to move him if you can because his value is the highest it will likely be all season.
