For the final conference tournament to tip-off, the Sports Gambling Podcast Network caps off championship week with our Mid-American Conference preview, picks, and best bets.
MACtion returns to the Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, with the games starting on Thursday. There will be contests daily until the title game on Saturday night.
Looking at the event’s history, the top seed has only won five of the previous 13 tournaments. This includes Toledo, who again is the No. 1 seed, failing to win the last three postseason titles.
None of these teams will receive an invitation to the NCAA Tournament. So, we should have eight squads going all out to win the automatic bid to the Big Dance.
Let’s dive into the Mid-American Conference preview, picks, and best bets.
2024 Mid-American Conference Tournament Preview, Picks, and Best Bets
Conference Tournament Champion Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (Organized by Seed in Tournament)
Toledo +340
Akron +155
Ohio +330
Central Michigan +2200
Bowling Green +1400
Western Michigan +6500
Miami (Ohio) +1600
Kent State +600
The Favorite: Akron +155
The shortest odds on the board go to the No. 2 seed in the tournament in Akron. The Zips come into the postseason rated as the highest team by both Kenpom and BartTorvik.
However, I do not like the side of the bracket that John Groce’s squad landed on. Outside of Toledo, Ohio is the clear third-best team in the MAC, and the Zips likely face them in the semifinals.
Another thing that stands out is how Akron closed the regular season. Groce’s team lost three of its final four to hand the top seed over to the Rockets.
According to BartTorvik, the Zips were rated fifth in the MAC over the last four weeks. This is not the form I would need to be able to back the team with the lowest odds in the tournament.
Mid-American Conference Tournament Best Bet: Toledo +340
Will this finally be the season coach Tod Kowalczyk gets the program to the NCAA Tournament? He has done the first step by securing the top seed and better side of the bracket.
As I mentioned above, the Rockets avoid Akron and Ohio until the championship game. There is a clear drop in quality to the next squad that can cut down the nets.
I have Toledo rated as the best team in the MAC since February. During the month, Kowalczyk’s squad picked up wins over the Zips and Bobcats.
Of the schools going to Cleveland, the Rockets also shoot the best from the free-throw line and give away the least amount of turnovers.
They have the dominant backcourt that strong teams in March have. I think this will be the year Kowalczyk gets it over the line.
Favorite Betting Angle: Fade the Michigan Teams
Because of how much I believe in the Top 3 seeds, I don’t see a longshot that I like. However, I do believe a profitable strategy is to fade Central and Western Michigan in the first round.
Whether ranking the teams since February or road metrics, I have these two rated at the bottom of the squads in the tournament.
For Central Michigan, I also don’t like the fact that the Chippewas have the worst luck record in the conference by Shot Quality at -18.53. This is the same team in the Bottom 3 of the MAC in turnovers and free-throw shooting in league play.
Meanwhile, the Broncos’ metrics may be worse across the board, which doesn’t bode well for their meeting with Ohio. On the road in conference action, WMU posted a 1-5 straight-up record against tournament teams, with the lone win coming back in the conference opener.
I believe these two squads are going to be overmatched, and I plan to find a way to fade them both on Thursday.
Even More College Basketball Content
SGPN has you covered with all the best college basketball content. Our team of degens, experts, and handicappers have been diving deep to know all the teams in advance of March Madness.
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