While the UFC continues to be the king when it comes to MMA and gambling, there is more MMA than ever to bet on now. Promotions all over the world as well as domestic ones are showing up in sportsbooks. The advantage here is that the data is usually quite a bit less sharp than when you’re making MMA predictions for the UFC. So we’ve decided to dig into some each week to get you started on your regional MMA journey. This week we head overseas for PFL Dubai from the United Arab Emirates for our regional MMA pick.
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MMA Regional Pick of the Week: PFL Dubai
PFL Welterweight Fight: Ernesto Rodriguez vs Rhys McKee
Card Start Time: Saturday (11/14), 9:00am EST (ESPN+)
Saturday morning plays host to a welterweight contest between a pair of fighters with vastly different levels of popularity. Rhys McKee spent two stints in the UFC and came up as a fan favorite through Cage Warriors. On the other hand, Ernesto Rodriguez has been a relatively unknown fighter until he got a chance at a last second title fight against Thad Jean, which ultimately didn’t go his way.
Those varying levels of popularity are likely what’s keeping the line close. In my assessment, Rodriguez should have a massive advantage when it comes to the ground game. He is a powerhouse wrestler who ran into someone who could match his strength in the last fight. McKee, meanwhile, has always struggled with the ground game – posting a sub 50% takedown defense rate over the course of his stays in the UFC.
While McKee’s range might be a little difficult to deal with, Rodriguez should be able to get inside and make this one-sided.
PFL Dubai Pick: Ernesto Rodriguez ML (-112)
SGPN Daily Content for November 12th, 2026
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If you’d like even more info to help make your MMA and UFC picks and predictions for ONE Fight Night 49, check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
