College Basketball Picks: Friday 11/13 & Saturday 11/14 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) are joined by Colby Dant (@TheColbyD) from The College Experience for college basketball picks on a loaded Friday slate, plus LSU at Gonzaga on Saturday. Both hosts back Maryland on the moneyline against Virginia, while Colby Dant locks Alabama minus 12.
Pizza Rankings, Tough Beats And An ESPN Cameo
Before a single spread, the guys settle the national pizza chain debate. Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) calls Domino’s the safe route and puts Pizza Hut dead last. Sbarro gets a pass for being fine for where you are. Then the talk drifts to Cheech’s, a long-gone Burbank spot where the owner answered a question about his chicken parm by saying it wouldn’t be on the menu if it wasn’t good.
Then it’s back to hoops, and nobody pretends last week went well. Colby Dant (@TheColbyD) says rosters have never been harder to know this early. He runs through the beats: ECU blowing a lead, a Missouri-St. Louis game that probably should have covered, and an Oakland-Stanford game decided by free throws in the final 10 seconds. Ryan Kramer has also told the pick grader not to color-code the overall records until things turn around. Meanwhile, Colby got quoted as an attendee in an ESPN piece on the Rock Hill college basketball marathon, and Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) reads the quote on air. Colby’s only complaint is the billing. He would have preferred Colby Dant.
Friday College Basketball Picks Open With Georgetown And Butler
None of these games had numbers out yet, so every spread here is the show’s own projection. The first one has Clemson laying five at home on Friday afternoon. Nobody touches the Tigers. Colby Dant has watched Clemson against North Dakota and American and says they are not very good, while Georgetown already beat Maryland and has a stud guard in Jalyn Lowe. Sean Green adds that Clemson’s advanced defensive numbers are off to a bad start against Stetson, American and North Dakota. Ryan Kramer notes Georgetown is basically all seniors and juniors, so the guys look right past the first-road-game angle. Colby wants the Hoyas on the moneyline. It’s year four for Ed Cooley, and he’s buying.
Pittsburgh at Butler is the first real split. Butler is projected at minus one and a half at Hinkle, and the computers can’t agree either. KenPom has Pitt by one, while Torvik has Butler by four. Colby Dant trusts his eyes and takes undefeated Pitt, because Butler got smacked by Boise State and needed a while to wake up against Fairleigh Dickinson. But the other two seats go Butler. Sean Green points to the free throw line, where Butler shoots 77% and Pitt shoots 70%. The Penn State win came at the Palestra, so this is Pitt’s first true road game. Ryan Kramer keeps it simple and refuses to bet on Jeff Capel.
Ohio, Georgia And The App State Dog
Purdue is projected at 19 over Ohio in West Lafayette, with KenPom at 16 and Torvik near 22. That is too many points for Colby Dant. The Boilermakers already lost to Valparaiso on a buzzer-beater and to Gonzaga, and they needed time to pull away from Illinois State. He has Purdue winning by 14 and takes Ohio. Sean Green joins him because Purdue ranks 295th in adjusted tempo. It’s tough to win by 20 at that pace. So Ryan Kramer goes the other way and lays the big number. His case is that Ohio will be outmatched inside and needs the three, which is the thing Purdue defends best.
Georgia catches five and a half in Chapel Hill, and this one splits too. Colby Dant likes the Dogs’ physicality and Blue Cain. He isn’t impressed by a Carolina team that almost got knocked off by Western Carolina in the opener before beating Wofford by about 40. Ryan Kramer sides with him because Georgia has a lot of veteran presence, which makes continuity easy this early. Sean Green takes UNC instead. He thinks the home crowd puts the Heels over the edge, and the analytics have been kind to their defense. He doesn’t see a blowout, but he does see a cover.
Then comes the unanimous dog. Charlotte is projected at minus 11 against App State, with KenPom at 10 and Torvik at 12 and a half. Colby Dant saw App State live in Rock Hill and came away impressed by its athleticism and height for a mid-major. He thinks they might be the team to beat in the Sun Belt. Charlotte is 2-1 with a close loss to Seton Hall, and Wes Miller has energy behind the program, but 11 is a lot. Sean Green loves the offensive glass, where App State posts a 41.4% offensive rebounding percentage, 24th in the nation. Ryan Kramer wonders about the size but takes the points too.
UConn, Maryland And The Arizona Argument
UConn is projected at minus eight and a half against Ohio State at People’s Bank Arena in Hartford. KenPom has nine and Torvik has 7.8. Colby Dant expects a close game for a while before the crowd fuels a UConn run and a double-digit win. Ryan Kramer agrees and lays it. He points out this is UConn’s second game in that building, and he expects Ohio State to play it like BYU, scrappy until the home team took over. Sean Green takes Ohio State. The Buckeyes already handled a hostile spot at BYU and hit 81.8% of their free throws. If you make your free throws while getting eight and a half, he’ll take it.
Virginia at Maryland gets everyone fired up. Virginia is minus five on the road. It’s 4-0 and beat Arkansas by around 20, so Colby Dant admits the Cavaliers look Final Four good so far. But this is an old conference rivalry, and he bets it’s the loudest the building gets all year. Maryland also just lost to Georgetown by double digits, so it has to show up here. Sean Green notes Maryland is the number one offensive rebounding team in the country and likes Buzz as a home dog on a Friday night. Ryan Kramer is obviously on Maryland. All three take the Terps plus five, and all three want the moneyline too.
Arizona at Auburn is projected as a pick, and it’s the one where Ryan Kramer stands alone. Sean Green likes Arizona because it already got a neutral-site trip and UNLV out of the way, and he thinks it’s simply the better team. Colby Dant agrees, even though Arizona beat Auburn by 30 last season and revenge is in play. He also suggests a live bet if the Wildcats fall behind early in the Jungle. Kramer takes Auburn anyway. His case is the home crowd plus a lookahead, because Arizona hosts UConn next Wednesday. And in his words, a jungle cat beats a desert cat.
DePaul, Alabama And A Stanford Lean
Northwestern is projected at minus one at home against DePaul. KenPom has DePaul by one, and Torvik has Northwestern by two and a half. Colby Dant flags the big variable, because Northwestern’s leading scorer is a game-time decision with a concussion. He thinks DePaul is better on paper anyway. He likes what Holtmann is doing with a 3-0 team, and he expects Blue Demons fans to make the short trip. Sean Green agrees, since it’s barely a road trip. Ryan Kramer takes Northwestern after a quick search turns up optimism about the scorer playing Friday and a typical recovery of about a week.
Seton Hall is projected to catch 12 at Alabama, with KenPom at 13 and Torvik at 10.8. Colby Dant says Alabama wins by 20. He calls it a bad stylistic matchup for the Pirates, he watched the Tide hang 109 points on Oakland, and he thinks Seton Hall looked a little phony against Charlotte. Sean Green lays it too, because Alabama’s defense sits 37th in adjusted efficiency. Everyone already knows about the offense. Ryan Kramer plays the angle on the other side. Alabama has only seen Oakland, Arkansas State and Sam Houston, so Seton Hall is a real step up, and its backcourt could cause problems.
Stanford at UNLV is projected with the Rebels laying half a point. KenPom has Stanford by one, while Torvik has UNLV by 2.2. Ryan Kramer explains the gap: KenPom leans harder on preseason priors, and Torvik reacts more to what he’s seen this season. Colby Dant admits UNLV has the better roster on paper. But he takes Stanford because Kyle Smith is the better coach, and the Thomas and Mack crowd has looked embarrassingly thin. Sean Green adds that Stanford shoots 88% from the line, which matters with a one-point spread. Last year’s meeting finished 75-74.
Saturday Picks And An A&M Prop Pair
Before Saturday, Colby Dant builds a two-leg Underdog entry off tonight’s Texas A&M and Oklahoma State game. The first leg is PJ Haggerty higher than 19 and a half points. The case is age and volume. Haggerty went from TCU to Tulsa to Memphis to Kansas State before landing at A&M, and Colby figures he has to be 25 by now. The second leg is Jordan Berks higher than 19 and a half points and rebounds, off lines of 14 and a half points and six and a half rebounds. A $100 entry returns $350.
Saturday opens at 12:30 PM in Spokane, where Gonzaga is projected at minus eight against LSU. KenPom has seven and Torvik has nine. All three take LSU. Colby Dant calls the Tigers a G League team and thinks they’re probably more talented on paper. The game is in the bigger arena instead of the Kennel, though he expects the crowd to be all Zags. Sean Green admits LSU hasn’t played anyone like Gonzaga, but the defense has been good, and he sees a five-point game. Ryan Kramer likes LSU taking the ball inside, because Gonzaga’s interior has not been good, and these are old seniors, not wide-eyed freshmen.
Cincinnati is projected at minus four and a half at Dayton, with Torvik at two and a half and KenPom at six. Colby Dant smells blood in the water. Dayton has lost to Northern Illinois and Siena, fans left early in the Siena game, and he isn’t sure Anthony Grant makes it through the season. Meanwhile, he believes Calhoun is a legit coach with energy behind the program. Sean Green agrees because defense travels and Dayton is not looking good. Ryan Kramer wanted the home dog, but he folds. He doesn’t like it, and he’ll listen to Colby on this one.
The last game is New Mexico at Santa Clara, with the Lobos projected to catch a point and a half. KenPom has Santa Clara by one and Torvik has it by two. Colby Dant takes New Mexico because its guards are elite and Olin always overachieves. Herb Sendek’s teams, by contrast, are always talented but never quite as good as the talent. He does worry a little that New Mexico is too good at football right now. Ryan Kramer takes the home team. New Mexico plays a short rotation on the road, and Santa Clara is top 24 nationally in KenPom’s new average two-point distance metric.
Locks, A Moneyline Dog And The DMV Parlay
Colby Dant locks App State plus 11, Alabama minus 12, Cincinnati minus four and a half and Maryland plus five. His dog is Georgetown on the moneyline. His parlay for the clientele is a DMV special, Maryland and Georgetown on the moneyline. Sean Green co-signs the parlay and locks Stanford getting a point. Ryan Kramer reminds him the projection was a half, then lets him have the full point anyway. Sean also locks Georgetown plus five, Maryland plus five and Arizona as a pick, and his moneyline dog is Maryland.
Ryan Kramer goes Butler, Georgetown, LSU plus eight and UConn minus eight and a half, then takes Maryland on the moneyline. He likes Stanford on the moneyline too but figured he’d get mocked for it. He’s in on the parlay as well. The guys floated adding an LSU moneyline as a third leg in a round robin. That number won’t be out in time, though, so the parlay stays at two legs. If the Saturday lines open early enough at Circa, he may fire a bonus moneyline parlay. And if the Good Morning post doesn’t mention one, it didn’t happen.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:44 Pizza Chains, Sbarro and Cheech’s
12:07 Early Hoops Rosters and Tough Beats
16:20 Georgetown vs. Clemson Picks
24:09 Pittsburgh vs. Butler Picks
30:19 Ohio vs. Purdue Picks
32:30 Georgia vs. North Carolina Picks
36:04 App State vs. Charlotte Picks
39:51 Ohio State vs. UConn Picks
42:18 Virginia vs. Maryland Picks
45:42 Arizona vs. Auburn Picks
49:11 DePaul vs. Northwestern Picks
54:40 Seton Hall vs. Alabama Picks
57:25 Stanford vs. UNLV Picks
1:02:24 Haggerty & Berks Higher On Underdog
1:05:06 LSU vs. Zags Picks
1:11:49 Cincinnati vs. Dayton Picks
1:13:53 New Mexico vs. Santa Clara Picks
1:17:23 Locks & Dog Parlay
1:21:54 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
