It’s Week 10 of the NFL and time to set our NFL confidence pool picks. An NFC East showdown between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders kicks things off on Thursday Night Football. The New England Patriots and Detroit Lions have an early morning showdown in Germany. Four teams are enjoying a mid-season bye. The Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and a much-needed break for the Philadelphia Eagles. That leaves us 14 games to choose from this week; let’s rank them in order of most confidence to least.
Can’t Miss – High Confidence Picks
1. Jaguars Over Titans
2. Bills Over Jets
3. Rams Over Cardinals
4. Seahawks Over Raiders
5. 49ers Over Cowboys
The top of the board feels solid like last week’s. We have some clear-cut favorites, and we’re going to roll with them. Jacksonville may be the best team in the league right now. Tennessee may be the worst. Jacksonville has owned this matchup lately. They’ve won four in a row and seven of the last eight games over the Titans. Last season, they won these games 41-7 and 25-3. Expect a lot more of that.
Buffalo is one of the better teams in the NFL, while the New York Jets are not. Buffalo has had a tough schedule and still sits at 7-1 this year. They’ve yet to have a cupcake like this on the schedule. Expect Buffalo to blow them out of the water.
The Arizona Cardinals defeated the Los Angeles Rams just a few weeks ago at the Rams’ home in SoFi Stadium. But I have no issue putting them at #3 on this week’s confidence ranking. The chances of them beating the Rams again are low. Add in the fact that the team traded Jacoby Brissett, and Gardner Minshew went down with likely a season-ending injury. That leaves rookie quarterback Carson Beck to make his first career start. To add insult to injury, their top receiver Michael Wilson is also out for the year after fracturing his neck.
Speaking of teams with strong defenses that get to face rookie quarterbacks in their first start, enter the reigning Super Bowl Champion defense, “The Dark Side.” They get to face the Heisman Trophy-winning, National Champion, #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza takes over the starting role after Kirk Cousins was traded to Minnesota before Tuesday’s trade deadline. Facing this defense in your first start is a tall task for Mendoza this week.
San Francisco just keeps plugging along. The 7-1 San Francisco 49ers have battled through a massive amount of injuries and just keep winning games. They face a team that can’t seem to buy a win (if they could, you know Jerry would!). San Francisco was one of the more active teams at the deadline, trying to round out their solid roster and fill in the injury gaps. This one is as simple as taking the far better team.
Feelin’ Good – Confident Picks
6. Ravens Over Chargers
7. Chiefs Over Falcons
8. Texans Over Browns
9. Panthers Over Saints
The feelin’ good section has some games with teams that should come out on top this week. Baltimore is an interesting team this week on Sunday Night Football. Jacoby Brissett will make his debut as the Ravens’ quarterback, and I’m excited for it. We know this Baltimore team is a good team, and Brissett has proven he’s at least a solid starter. As far as the Chargers go, well, they are still winless.
Kansas City isn’t without their flaws, but they are a solid football team. You always have the upper hand with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. Atlanta has had a few flashes, but they are a few pieces away. A fate they accepted by trading safety Jessie Bates away at the deadline.
Houston and Cleveland. The Deshaun Watson bowl. Watson looks on track to be back this week against his former team. Cleveland comes in at 5-4, fresh off a loss to the Saints. Houston is 3-5. They’ve won three of their last four games as things have picked up for the team. What this boils down to is Houston just being the slightly better team. I expect this one to be a dogfight in the Dawg Pound.
An NFC South showdown rounds out the confident pick. These two teams battle for the NFC South lead, yet both have been major disappointments this year. Carolina has shown some life the last few weeks, even in their losses. Shedeur Sanders almost beat this Saints team last week. That’s the deciding factor for me.
Hold Your Breath – True Toss Ups
10. Packers Over Vikings
11. Bengals Over Steelers
12. Giants Over Commanders
13. Patriots Over Lions
14. Colts Over Dolphins
This section is the coin flips this week for sure. Starting with an NFC North division matchup between the Packers and Vikings. The Green Bay Packers have been a team on fire lately. Tearing the league apart and coming off a massive beatdown of the Patriots. The Vikings defense has been a terror of its own this season. Their offense has struggled, but Kirk Cousins is back to lead them. This Packers team has just turned such a corner; I can’t go against them this week.
The AFC North is always tricky when it comes to divisional games. This is another one that’ll be close. The Bengals offense seems just a little more powerful, so we’ll ride with them.
If you have Thursday Night Football in your pool, this is another tough one. I do not love trusting JJ McCarthy by any means. However, the Giants have clearly been the better team this season.
In Germany, I think this Patriots-Lions game could go either way. The Patriots will probably handle the travel better; I’ll give the edge to their staff there. They looked real bad against Green Bay last week. But this is a good bounce-back spot. Expect a lot of points if you get up early for this one.
Ah, a mid-season toilet bowl game. Dolphins and Colts. Both sides are gross. Miami placed Malik Willis on the IR this week. That leaves Kyle McCord to make his first career start. Give me the Colts, simply because they are the less gross team. But not by much.
