College Football Picks Week 11 (Ep. 2726)

College Football Picks Week 11 Recap

Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) are joined by Colby Dant (@TheColbyD) for College Football Picks Week 11, fresh off the Utah-BYU Holy War trip. All three lock Oklahoma State minus 3.5 against Texas Tech, and Colby grabs Baylor on the moneyline at plus 215.

A Holy War Hangover In Salt Lake City

The guys are still buzzing from Utah’s win over BYU at Rice-Eccles Stadium, a 10 AM kickoff that Ryan Kramer called a 10 out of 10 experience. He had a big bet on Utah and felt every swing of it: a 14-nothing Utah start, a long stretch where BYU looked like the better team, then four Bachmeier interceptions in the second half once BYU forgot about the run game.

The best scene came right after Utah missed a short field goal with the score 20 to 14. At the very next TV timeout, a fan trotted out for a prize kick from longer range and drilled it, and the whole stadium had the same question about why he wasn’t on the roster. Then Bachmeier’s last-second Hail Mary hung in the air over a wide-open receiver before a safety tracked it down. The field storm followed, and the student section packed in so tight it felt like a soccer crowd. Add the Pig Bus tailgate, with its rooftop deck and a sign waiving any liability, and Ryan Kramer couldn’t name 10 better college football games he has been to.

It was a winning Saturday on the card too. The guys went 9-3 collectively on their locks, with all three going 3-1, and 7-3 on consensus plays. The contest went 5-2, which leaves the show dead even with Mac In The Box at 334. Sean Green watched those locks come in from the Green Pig Pub, where a fan posed with a stolen 20-yard marker, while Colby Dant drove to Logan for Utah State. Then Ryan Kramer capped the touting by revealing he is 59-31 over the last five weeks, so the heat is on.

Thursday And Friday: Memphis Rested, UCLA Still Perfect

Memphis lays 3.5 at South Florida on Thursday night with a 50.5 total, and two of the three back the Tigers. The rest gap drives it, because Memphis gets 12 days while USF gets six after losing to ECU on a walk-off 55-yarder. Colby Dant also points out that South Florida ranks 125th in total offense under first-year coach Hartline, so the record looks better than the team. Sean Green agrees and says Memphis rolls. Ryan Kramer is the holdout, taking the home dog on a Thursday night and joking that he wants to see what happens when he disagrees with the other two.

Friday brings UCLA laying 10.5 against Illinois in Pasadena with a 47.5 total. The Bruins are 9-0 straight up and 9-0 against the spread, and the guys spend a good chunk of the segment furious that the committee ranked a two-loss team ahead of them. Colby Dant is fading UCLA for a third straight week and sees a 24-17 type finish where the Bruins win and the Illini cover. Sean Green joins him on Illinois +10.5, arguing UCLA wins by running the ball and playing defense, a formula that isn’t built for double-digit covers. But Ryan Kramer won’t bet against a team that has cashed every week, so he lays it and says to shop for a 10.

Saturday Morning: Wake, Duke And Northwestern

SMU is a 1.5-point favorite over Wake Forest with a 60.5 total, and the winner is basically in control of who plays Miami for the ACC title. Colby Dant and Sean Green both side with Wake, because Jake Dickert’s North Dakota State staff prepares as well as anyone in the sport. The catch is Gio Lopez, who is questionable after an injury that looked season-ending two weeks ago. Colby Dant says Lopez has to play for Wake to win. So the advice is simple: wait for good Lopez news before betting Wake, and Ryan Kramer adds that the money coming in makes SMU the only side to bet right now.

Duke at +13.5 in Miami is where everyone lands. Manny Diaz gets a revenge spot against the program that gave him a raw deal, and Colby Dant thinks it’s all hands on deck whether or not Florida State comes calling. The Duke defense backs it up, ranking 11th in total yards, fifth in points allowed and third on third down. Sean Green also says 13.5 is way too high for a Miami offense that leaned so hard on Tony. Meanwhile, Ohio State lays 12.5 to Northwestern with a 45.5 total, and Colby Dant and Ryan Kramer both take the points. Childs is questionable for Northwestern, though, so wait on that one too.

SEC And Big Ten Spots: A&M, Indiana, Georgia And Oregon

Texas A&M at +2.5 against Tennessee gets the whole room. Colby Dant calls it the ultimate foxhole spot, since Mike Elko needs this win to go bowling, and Sean Green calls Tennessee’s road number very trappy after the big home win over Kentucky. Ryan Kramer keeps it short: you can’t lay points with Tennessee on the road. Indiana laying 7.5 to USC splits them. Sean Green takes USC because Indiana is 1-8 against the spread and he can’t trust the offense to score. Colby Dant loves the Hoosiers’ defense and the cold, three-hour time zone trip for USC, and Ryan Kramer calls it an Indiana spot all day.

Georgia lays 15.5 to Missouri with a 47.5 total, and Ryan Kramer and Sean Green both lay it. Georgia’s physicality against Ole Miss sold Sean Green, while Ryan Kramer notes Missouri got blown out 31-3 in its toughest road game, at Ole Miss. Colby Dant grudgingly takes the points. Then the Michigan segment turns ugly. Reports of fights, insubordination and a canceled meeting have piled up under Kyle Whittingham, and Ryan Kramer brings up Whittingham’s crack that anyone could win with $50 million. He expects Dan Lanning to circle that quote, so all three lay 11.5 with Oregon.

Afternoon And Night: Baylor, BC, Boise And Stillwater

BYU lays 7.5 to Baylor in Provo, and Sean Green and Ryan Kramer both expect BYU to clean up the turnovers and run the rock after the Holy War loss. Colby Dant goes the other way with Baylor, because interim coach Joe Klanderman is a North Dakota State guy and Colby Dant is 2-0 backing him. He also floats Baylor at +3000 to win the Big 12, since the Bears control their own destiny. Notre Dame laying 28.5 to Boston College is a sandwich spot, with SMU next on the schedule. All three take BC, and Ryan Kramer adds that Marcus Freeman is 4-7 ATS as a favorite of 28 or more.

Boise State lays 13.5 to Oregon State on the Smurf Turf with GameDay in town and a 65.5 total. All three lay it, though Ryan Kramer warns the line has moved a ton and reports Max Cutforth is starting over Madson. Sean Green worries a little about a back door with Brayden Atkinson throwing it. Kentucky at -3.5 against Florida is a flowchart game for everyone, because Kentucky has covered its last five of these at home. Then UNC at +3.5 against Louisville gets the room too, with Colby Dant on the moneyline and Sean Green calling it a field-goal game where the Tar Heels are a home dog all day.

Utah is a 2.5-point favorite at Arizona with a 54.5 total, and this one gets personal. Colby Dant and Sean Green both take Arizona, pointing to the letdown spot, the extra day of rest and two straight Arizona wins in the series. Ryan Kramer counters that Utah’s run game gets a bottom-half run defense after facing one of the best, so he calls Utah a freebie. New Mexico lays 14.5 to UNLV at 5,100 feet with a 46.5 total. Colby Dant and Sean Green take UNLV, and Sean Green leans under because he expects few possessions. Ryan Kramer lays it with New Mexico, the nation’s top havoc team, fresh off a 31-3 win over Nevada.

LSU lays 4.5 to Texas at home under the lights with a 46.5 total, and everyone lays it. Kiffin is 1-11 against top-10 teams and Sark is 2-8, but Colby Dant says LSU still has no good wins and this is the one they get. The last game on the board is the easiest call of the night. Oklahoma State lays 3.5 at home to Texas Tech with a 72.5 total, and all three are on the Cowboys. Texas Tech hung 48 on West Virginia, which ranks fourth-worst in the country in defensive EPA per play. Oklahoma State’s advanced numbers look strong, so the guys lay it without much debate.

College Football Picks Week 11 Locks, Dogs And Teases

Colby Dant locks Oklahoma State, LSU and Boston College, then grabs Baylor on the moneyline at +215 as his dog. His teaser moves Texas A&M up to 8.5, brings Oregon down to 5.5 and pushes UNLV to 20.5. Sean Green locks Duke +13.5, Boston College +28.5, UNC +3.5 and Oklahoma State -3.5. His dog is Northwestern at +385, betting that Childs plays. His tease runs UNLV +20.5, Oregon -5.5 and Arizona up to 8.5, which he credits to Colby Dant, who was ripping baseball card packs on air the entire time.

Ryan Kramer locks Oklahoma State, LSU -4.5, Oregon -11.5 and Duke with the points against a Tonyless Miami. For his dog, he heads to College Station for Texas A&M on the moneyline. His tease is New Mexico -8.5, Boise State -7.5 and Indiana -1.5, which Sean Green calls a good one. Then comes the parlay. Ryan Kramer pitches Duke and Boston College on the moneyline, and Colby Dant vetoes it as too crazy. So they settle on Duke and Northwestern on the moneyline, a private school special that Sean Green names the Do You Know Who My Father Is parlay.

Contest Card: Seven Picks To Break The Tie

With the show tied with Mac In The Box, the contest card needs to hit. Oklahoma State -3.5 is the consensus play, since everyone locked it. Colby Dant adds UNLV +14.5 and Arizona +2.5, the second one picked partly to needle a Utah fan. Sean Green takes Duke +13.5 and Boston College +28.5. Ryan Kramer adds Oregon -11.5, because Michigan is completely dead, and LSU -4.5. That makes the official seven: UNLV +14.5, Duke +13.5, Oregon -11.5, Arizona +2.5, Boston College +28.5, LSU -4.5 and Oklahoma State -3.5. Ryan Kramer calls the card horrible while Sean Green likes the mix, and for anyone who wants more chaos, there’s a Boston College, Northwestern and Duke moneyline round robin.

College Football Week 11 Odds

Podcast Chapters

0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:45 Colby, Teeth and the Redskins
4:44 Utah Trip & the Pig Bus
17:25 Locks and Contest Tied with Mac In The Box
26:29 Slides and Final Touting
28:16 Memphis vs. South Florida Picks
38:04 Illinois vs. UCLA Picks
52:35 Wake Forest vs. SMU Picks
59:46 Duke vs. Miami Picks
1:03:13 Northwestern vs. Ohio State Picks
1:06:34 Tennessee vs. Texas A&M Picks
1:11:48 USC vs. Indiana Picks
1:16:20 Missouri vs. Georgia Picks
1:18:24 Michigan vs. Oregon Picks
1:28:42 Baylor vs. BYU Picks
1:33:21 Boston College vs. Notre Dame Picks
1:38:30 Oregon State vs. Boise State Picks
1:43:11 Florida vs. Kentucky Picks
1:48:06 Louisville vs. North Carolina Picks
1:51:29 Utah vs. Arizona Picks
1:56:56 UNLV vs. New Mexico Picks
2:01:42 Texas vs. LSU Picks
2:05:39 Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Picks
2:11:54 Lock, Dog and Tease
2:18:42 Contest Picks
2:21:30 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast