NFL Week 9 Contest Bombs | Bottom Line Bombs Recap
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) is on the road in Pittsburgh for a Friday pop-up show with five NFL Week 9 contest picks against the spread from the Circa Million. Dallas, Cincinnati, New Orleans and Houston all get laid as favorites, while Carolina plus 2.5 against Denver is the lone dog.
NFL Week 9 Contest Picks From A Pittsburgh Hotel
CJ Sullivan skipped the Monday recap and the Thursday pick show this week. So the Circa Millions card arrives as a Friday pop-up from a historic downtown Pittsburgh hotel. He is in town doing stand-up at the Improv, and the Steelers are on a bye, which he counts as a mercy. There are no bomb sound effects and no studio, just the man in the box live on YouTube. But the timing still matters, because last week went 3-2 and dragged the contest record back to .500.
The winners came from Buffalo over Baltimore and Jacksonville over the Colts. Denver also delivered in that miracle finish against Kansas City. Meanwhile the Chargers lost because, in CJ’s words, that’s what the Chargers do. The other loss came in the Miami game, which turned on a late bomb touchdown and a backdoor cover. So the Week 9 plan is part cleanup and part therapy. Some picks are self-reflective, and one makes no sense on purpose. All five use the locked Circa Millions contest spreads, and that matters because a couple of these numbers have already moved in the books.
Holding Your Nose On Cowboys Minus 4.5
The first pick is the one CJ calls a disgusting act. Dallas lays 4.5 at Indianapolis on the contest line, and books are already dealing 5.5. So anyone taking the Cowboys gets the full point of dead-number value that the Fezzik system preaches. The case is mostly about the Colts. They are trading off everyone, Daniel Jones has popped up in trade talk, and the Jonathan Taylor saga keeps rolling. Then there is Anthony Richardson, whom the Colts still refuse to play. CJ jokes that Josh Downs is the one guy who actually wants out. A team in that state at Week 9 has stopped caring, and that is what he wants to bet against.
Dallas is a mess too. The Cowboys looked great beating the Eagles, then lost outright to Gardner Minshew and Arizona. But CJ still thinks they can win the division, because they have the talent and arguably its best quarterback in Dak Prescott. The defense is not good. And what exactly are the Colts going to do about it? Jerry Jones also handed him material this week by claiming coaching salaries have no link to Super Bowls. CJ points straight at Andy Reid and Bill Belichick, the best-paid coaches and the biggest winners, as proof Jerry has it backward. The verdict is blunt: Dallas wins by more than a touchdown.
Joe Burrow In Madrid And Bengals Minus 3
The international games are back, with Cincinnati and Atlanta meeting in Madrid. The Bengals lay only 3 in the contest, and CJ thinks that number is off. Atlanta just lost to a Tampa Bay team that barely threw a forward pass. Michael Penix on the road, outdoors, has also been rough. Their one recent good result came against a decimated San Francisco roster. So why is Atlanta only getting three? CJ trusts Joe Burrow to outduel Penix, especially with Tee Higgins outpacing Ja’Marr Chase and making an Offensive Player of the Year case. Chase Brown also draws a Falcons run defense ranked 23rd.
Yes, the Bengals nearly lost to Tennessee last week. It was a shootout, Cam Ward almost outgunned Burrow, and the defense gave up 36 points. CJ reads that as a bounce-back setup. He also pulled up DVOA to back the call. Cincinnati sits third in the league at 26.6%, while Atlanta is 20th at minus 7, one spot behind Baltimore. Bijan will probably get his, and Drake London can take over stretches. But this is the third team in the NFC South against the leader of the AFC North. Then add Burrow in a Spanish bullring, dressed like a matador, and the pick is Bengals minus 3.
Fading Shedeur Sanders With Saints Minus 3
This is the game CJ did not want to play until he heard the quotes. Deshaun Watson is out with a concussion, so Shedeur Sanders makes his first start for Cleveland, on the road in New Orleans. Asked about the Saints defense, Sanders said he was licking his chops. CJ nearly laughed, because the rookie talks like he has been the starter all season. There is a personal angle too. The Saints took Tyler Shough in the second round, while Sanders slid to the fifth. And chances to fade Sanders do not come around often, so CJ is jumping on this one.
New Orleans has its own problems. The Saints come off a bye after a trip that ended in a 16-10 loss to the Steelers, a game where they seemed to stop playing. The defense is worse than anyone thought, and Shough is not good. But the bye gives them time to fix things and scheme up a quarterback who will throw it to anyone. Also, the line opened at 1 and jumped to 3 once Sanders was named the starter. DVOA actually leans Cleveland, 22nd against the Saints at 29th. CJ doubts that number has the Shedeur factor baked in, so he is taking the rested team at Saints minus 3.
Panthers Plus 2.5 Because It Makes No Sense
Denver lays 2.5 on the road in Carolina, and CJ thinks the line smells fishy. On paper the Panthers look cooked. Tampa Bay slaughtered them, then Green Bay whooped them on Thursday night. The offensive line has been brutal, and the defense fell off a cliff without Phillips and the starting corners. So the Broncos defensive line should feast. Why take Carolina, then? Because it makes no sense, and that is exactly the kind of NFL spot CJ wants. The Panthers also come home on 10 days of rest, sitting in a comfortable home-dog role after straight-up losses.
The Broncos are 6-2 and have beaten the good teams, including Seattle, Kansas City and the Rams. But CJ does not trust them away from home. They needed a 60-yard Bo Nix run to get past Arizona, and they trailed the Chargers by a touchdown on the road. Then last week they did nothing for three quarters before Nix came alive in the fourth against Kansas City. That is not a sustainable way to play football. There is also the odd marriage between Nix, who checks down, and Sean Payton, who hates it. DVOA has Carolina 17th and Denver 11th, so the gap is small. Take the points, let the refs keep it close, and play Carolina plus 2.5.
Cutting Bait On The Chargers With Texans Minus 4.5
The fifth pick hurts, because CJ has backed the Chargers almost every week. Last week he said that if they could not do something against the Rams coming out of the bye, it was time to write them off. They didn’t, and now he is done. Houston lays 4.5 on the contest line, and most books are up to 6, so the contest number is a good one. The Chargers are now dead last in DVOA, a fraction under Miami and Tennessee. And Herbert has joined the problem, throwing the same interceptions into triple coverage over and over.
CJ puts most of the blame on McDaniels and wants him out of the building today. He also thinks Harbaugh boxed Herbert in, though those Harbaugh teams did post back-to-back 11-win seasons. Houston, meanwhile, is only 2-5 but sits 14th in DVOA, between Green Bay and Chicago. The Texans beat Jacksonville before a bad loss to the Giants, then got a bye. C.J. Stroud has been fine, and CJ says he would be an MVP candidate with more wins. So he is not worried about Houston laying the number, and he is not worried about the Chargers scoring. The pick is Texans minus 4.5.
The Full Five-Pick Circa Card
The full Circa Millions card for Sunday is Dallas minus 4.5, Cincinnati minus 3, New Orleans minus 3, Carolina plus 2.5 and Houston minus 4.5. CJ admits he hates a few of these dumb favorites, and he does not feel good about the Saints. But he will take the rest edge there and live with it. He also promises a Monday reaction show with a play on Buffalo and Minnesota, then a return to the studio Thursday for props. Before signing off, he tells the story of a lost phone, a Verizon store with no upgrade for a 25-year customer, and a shady cab a stranger at a bar had to find for him. That part did not cash for anyone.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
1:41 Welcome To Bottom Line Bombs
7:26 Dallas vs. Indianapolis Picks
15:15 Bengals vs. Atlanta Picks
22:19 Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints Picks
29:50 Denver vs. Carolina Picks
34:59 Houston Texans vs. Chargers Picks
41:14 Recap Of The Five Plays
42:47 Sign-Off
